I began writing this over a week ago, before the Trump rally in Pennsylvania, and before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. My intention then was to speculate on the possible consequences of Democrats in Congress and other liberal-progressive leaders pushing their president and putative 2024 nominee off the ticket only weeks before the election.
My speculative thoughts then were that the risks of changing their ticket with an unwilling Joe Biden were very great—although the president had chronically unfavorable polls, and these poll numbers were deteriorating, especially in key states.
Now, Mr. Biden has officially stepped down from running for re-election. He was forced to do this by his party’s establishment, caused by the public reaction to his debate performance against Donald Trump, and a sudden realization by many Democrats of how frail he really was. Mr. Biden has also now endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him.
Because Biden’s withdrawal came so very late, the selection of his replacement has many potential complications and risks.
Mr. Trump has now not only survived a very serious assassination attempt, but also demonstrated remarkable poise and grit under fire. Within a few days of nearly dying, he triumphantly appeared at his party’s well-organized and smooth-running convention, chose a vice-presidential running mate, and returned to his national campaign.
His poll numbers continue to improve, suggesting not only an Electoral College landslide, but even a Trump popular vote victory. And now the poll numbers of Democratic candidates in competitive House and Senate races are also falling.
This alarmed Democratic candidates and the party’s strategists, and in the past few days, more than thirty leading elected Democrats publicly called on President Biden to retire. Several party strategists from past presidential campaigns warned of political disaster in November (less than four months away), and important major donors were withholding large campaign contributions. Finally, the establishment media, long hostile to Mr. Trump and protectively biased toward Mr. Biden, were in a panic, and turned savagely on the president.
President Biden, however, initially refused to quit the race. He was skeptical of the polls and felt he was physically and mentally able to do the job for another four years. Now, his delegates who overwhelmingly control the upcoming Democrats’ national convention only three weeks away in Chicago, must make another choice.
Vice President Harris, with Biden’s endorsement, is a heavy favorite, but her low polling numbers and poor campaign track record could tempt major opponents to contest the nomination at the party convention.
There are many procedural and legal hurdles yet to overcome. If the convention does coalesce around Vice President Kamala Harris, whose own 2020 presidential campaign was a failure, and who has had even worse polls than Mr. Biden as long as she has been vice president, they might be bypassing a stronger candidate. A lackluster campaigner in the past, Harris has been widely criticized for her role being in charge of the southern border crisis and the consequences of millions of undocumented illegal immigrants entering the U.S. over that border. She will also have to defend the rest of the Biden administration record.
If the Democrats choose someone other than Kamala Harris, the question is who that might be. Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Governor Gavin Newsom of California, and Transportation Secretary Peter Buttigieg have been frequently mentioned, but their poll numbers have been even lower than Mr. Biden. They also remain mostly unknown outside their home states and have no national campaign organizations. With the DNC convention in Chicago only a few weeks away, do they have sufficient time to woo the delegates?
Some might say the Democrats have brought this dilemma on themselves by hiding from view Mr. Biden’s frail condition and making it virtually impossible for a major candidate to challenge him in the primaries.
Considering this election cycle’s tendency for surprises and breaking precedents, the final outcome in 2024 is still difficult to predict.
Many conservative commentators are warning conservative voters about overconfidence, citing 2022 as an example. A campaign cycle in so much unchartered territory defies easy predictions.
Nevertheless, Republicans and conservatives came out of their national convention energized and united, with their nominee significantly enhanced in favorable stature. Their young vice presidential nominee is likely to help the ticket in the vital Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The party has also recruited much stronger candidates in competitive U.S. Senate races than they did in 2022.
The formidable challenge for Democrats now is to somehow overcome these Republican advantages and inspire their voters to go to the polls. With an incumbent president no longer at the top of the Democrats’ ticket and a former president at the top of the GOP ticket, the Republicans gain one more advantage.
How the voters finally assess all the political drama, surprises and choices in this cycle will be the rest of the story of the elections in 2024. The only true surprise now would be if there were no more surprises.
Barry Casselman is a writer for AMAC Newsline.
