So, last week we has one of those dawdle, dash, sigh, and vote dances, the sort republics have every few years, what we all call an election. We went, voted, wondered, and got the results. What did they tell us?
First, Republicans and Democrats think differently about abortion, Republicans strongly against open-ended abortions – especially after 15 weeks, when a little person is plainly involved, while Democrats (especially younger ones) are convinced this issue is everything now, a hill to die on, all or nothing.
Second, we learned without Biden or Trump on the ballot, voter turnout is – as predicted – lower, less enthusiastic, and people think close to home. Tails wage dogs; issues like abortion play big.
Looking at things another way, we learned if you do not have Biden or Trump on the ballot, few will talk about the economy, border, crime, security, foreign policy, abuses, public corruption, overregulation and things that really affect life every day in a big way. If you do not talk about those issues, you lose.
Third, we learned (again) money matters – and Democrats, as last year in US House races – outraised Republicans in the off- cycle. That translates into organization, get-out-the-vote visits, media – votes.
In 2022, Democrats raised twice what Republicans did, shifted it around the country into otherwise competitive districts, highlighted abortion and anti-Trump rhetoric, prevented discussion of failures.
Democrats know a good thing when they see it, so pulled the same slight-of-hand this year, outraising Republicans, then shifting money to beat strong candidates on sidelight issues, silencing full-throated debate over Democrat mismanagement of schools, speech, religion, second amendment protections, energy, spending, regulation, border, police, crime, girls’ rights, and major indicators of leadership.
Fourth, in a corollary to the last point, we learned that truth can become a casualty of endless hype, political clutter, a combination of media, social media, and political actors pushing side issues to the top, and top issues to the side.
If you doubt this phenomenon or think it is secondary, that what we just saw somehow represents a real referendum on big issues, think again. The leading issues to affect voting just now were abortion, marijuana legalization, whether to allow the mentally ill to vote, peripheral tax issues, and stopping money from foreign-owned companies from getting into politics.
By contrast, the biggest issues of concern to Americans were nowhere to be seen, and played virtually no role in the recent Democrat claim of victory, as if this cycle were a referendum on anything.
To be painfully specific, none of the issues – from abortion to marijuana – matter more than a percentage point to most voters, while the big issues, the ones that decide everything, got no play.
One of many 2023 surveys making this point (Statistica) reported, for example, that the top issues for Americans were not even on the ballot. In order, Americans ranked the top issue as follows: Poor leadership (18 percent), economy in general (16 percent), immigration (13 percent), inflation (nine percent), unifying the country (five percent).
Dropping into other issues, homelessness, jobs, deficit, environment all got three percent. Abortion, cultural issues, drugs, wages – all got one percent. The point: The recent vote missed the biggest issues.
So, with Democrats still crowing about the Kentucky governorship, Virginia legislature, and how terrible Republicans are to oppose second and third trimester abortion restrictions, what is the silver lining?
Here it is: Like a heart attack survived, which allows rethinking, Republicans just got a warning. They need to start raising more money – which House candidates are, elevate issues that matter, do not get distracted or bogged down on side issues, put truth on the ballot, imagine Trump versus Biden.
Final thought, last silver lining: Democrats – including Biden, weakest incumbent in years – think they won, which means efforts to dump Biden may go slack. That, all by itself, suggests 2024 will be a different year. Five of six swing states now strongly favor Trump – any Republican – over Biden. If this cycle boosts the baloney that Biden can win, good on them, and may 2024 look a lot different.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.
