AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris
Two years after Republicans – led by former President Donald Trump – made major inroads with Latino voters, President Joe Biden and Democrat policies remain deeply unpopular with Hispanic Americans, according to a new poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group for AMAC. After years of Democratic strategists and media pundits predicting that the rapid growth of the Latino population in the United States would doom Republicans electorally, the results of the AMAC/Trafalgar poll point to a deep disaffection from the Democratic agenda and even a level of genuine fear of Democratic overreach. These results instead suggest that it is actually Democrat electoral fortunes that may be in jeopardy amid a significant realignment of this key voting bloc.
On nearly every question in the poll, which sampled 1,078 likely voters from September 21-26 and has a 2.9% margin of error, Latino voters were significantly more likely to express frustration and disapproval of Biden’s agenda and Democratic policies generally.
When asked if they believe the Biden administration cares more or less about the middle class than prior administrations, just 21.9 percent answered “much more,” compared to 31.7 percent who said the same in the overall sample. Notably, 61 percent of Latinos said the administration cares “much less” about the middle class than prior administrations, compared to 51.5 percent overall.
For a group of voters largely made up of first or second generation immigrants who came to the United States with the dream of living a middle-class lifestyle, these results should be deeply concerning for Democrats – particularly after Trump gained 8 points with Hispanics in 2020 compared to his performance in 2016.
On student loans, Hispanics disapproved of Biden’s debt forgiveness plan by a margin of 70.9 percent to 29.1 percent, compared to 53.2 percent and 40.3 percent overall.
Latino voters more than any other group also blamed the Biden administration for the rise in inflation. 69 percent of Latino respondents answered “Biden administration” when asked who is most responsible for inflation, compared to 25.7 percent of Blacks, 48.3 percent of Asians, 55 percent of Whites, 61.2 percent who selected “other” race/ethnicity, and 52.1 percent of the overall sample.
Perhaps the most striking result from the poll is Latino voters’ disapproval of Democrats’ overreaches of authority and use of government power to target their political opponents. When asked if they believed the Biden administration “has crossed an important ethical line in pursuing political opponents,” 74.2 percent of Hispanics answered “Yes,” while just 25.8 percent answered “No.” In the overall sample, those figures were 51.4 percent and 41.2 percent, respectively.
Many of these voters either themselves fled or had parents or grandparents who fled authoritarian regimes in Central and South America where crackdowns on political opposition are common. That they now overwhelmingly believe Biden has engaged in similar abuses of power to target his political opponents does not bode well for the president or his enablers in Congress.
When asked if they are “comfortable with the increase of federal involvement and intervention in your daily life under the Biden Administration,” a whopping 93 percent of Hispanics answered “No” – by far the highest percentage of any race/ethnicity, and more than 30 points above the overall figure of 59.9 percent. Just 29.4 percent of Blacks answered “No,” as well as 61 percent of Whites, 66.8 percent of Asians, 80.8 percent of those who selected “Other” for their race.
Just 7 percent of Hispanics said that they were comfortable with the increase of federal involvement in their lives, less than half as many as the next lowest group (Asians) at 17.7 percent. While Democrats have long insisted that their ever-expanding welfare state will bring even more Latino voters under their umbrella, these results point in exactly the opposite direction.
Biden and Democrats are also deep underwater with Hispanics on social policy. When asked about a new Biden Department of Education proposal that would require school children to attend mandatory counseling without parental consent if they refuse to use the preferred pronouns of their transgender classmates, 93.2 percent said they did not agree with the policy, while just 6.8 percent said they approved. These numbers again represented the upper and lower extremes among all races/ethnicities, with Hispanics’ disapproval just edging out Asians on both responses (88.3 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively).
When asked about what they believe to be the primary cause of rising violent crime, 21.9 percent answered “Biden administration” (the second highest of any group after Asians at 28.9 percent) 26.5 percent answered “lenient prosecutors,” and 12.4 percent answered “immigration” (the highest of any group). These numbers again suggest that Hispanics are deeply frustrated with Biden and the Democratic agenda.
Biden also received notably low marks from Hispanics on senior care. 74.2 percent of Hispanics said things have gotten worse for senior citizens under Biden, compared to 54.8 percent of respondents overall, 20.8 percent of Blacks, 56.3 percent of Asians, and 58.8 percent of Whites.
All of these results point to a voting bloc in Hispanics that is growing increasingly estranged from the Democratic Party. While Democrat candidates may well win a majority of the Hispanic vote this election cycle and perhaps the next few as well, the left’s alienation of Latinos only looks to be accelerating, and the day Republicans start winning a majority of the Hispanic vote may be imminent.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @Shane_Harris_.