AMAC asks its members to weigh in on a variety of topics related to politics, policy, and news headlines each week in an unscientific on-line poll. Members can even write comments after their selection, which offer valuable insight into their thinking. This past week’s question was this: Who would make Donald Trump’s best vice-presidential candidate and bring the most to the ticket?
As of this writing, the poll received over 28,400 responses. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina carried the day, though with a plurality of only 20%, given the 13 choices that were offered. Scott was followed by Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida with 18% and Dr. Ben Carson with 11.3%. Curiously, “Another Name Not Listed” came in at 11.7%. The other choices were Tom Cotton, JD Vance, Elise Stefanik, Byron Donalds, Tucker Carlson, Kristi Noem, Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio, and Vivek Ramaswamy.
Picking a Vice President is an important decision for any candidate. The political science literature is replete with articles on strategically “balancing the ticket.” You can balance ideologically by trying to win over support from a different wing of the party, as when Liberal Michael Dukakis picked Conservative Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. You can balance geographically by trying to garner support from different regions, as when John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts selected Lyndon Johnson of Texas in 1960.
Other presidential hopefuls have selected former rivals, as when Ronald Reagan selected Geroge H.W. Bush in 1980 in an attempt to unify the party. Donald Trump’s pick of Mike Pence in 2016 was widely viewed as an overture to evangelicals, an important voting block among the GOP where Trump sought to solidify more support.
Occasionally a choice can confound nearly everyone. George H.W. Bush’s pick of Dan Quayle of Indiana in 1988 and Richard Nixon’s selection of Spiro Agnew of Maryland in 1968 come to mind as there appeared to be no balancing there. Presidential candidates may also have an eye toward being a “first” in history, as Walter Mondale seemed to want with Geraldine Ferraro of New York, the first woman on a major party’s ticket. Perhaps Biden felt the same way in picking the multi-racial Kamala Harris, though there’s always a danger of appearing to signal “checking a box” over selecting one on quality, experience, and aptitude.
As important as vice presidential selection is, though, does it actually make any difference in attracting additional votes to the ticket? That’s where pundits are more unsure, suggesting any difference may be minimal, perhaps 1%. People vote for the name at the top and have said as much in poll after poll over the decades. However, with polls as close as they are in 2024, the selection may matter more this year.
Kristen Welker of NBC News noted it matters more in 2024 due to the ages of both Biden (81) and Trump (77) and the legal challenges of the former president. Welker also stated, “It matters because polls show that Harris is even less popular than Biden, and Trump’s allies are already airing TV ads targeting her.”
Of course no one knows who’s in and who’s out but Donald Trump himself. The so-called “list” is likely real, but it may exist only in Donald Trump’s head rather than on printed paper. The reality of any choice is the president must feel comfortable with his vice presidential pick and feel a combined sense of loyalty and honesty from the person.
Back to Tim Scott. Well known for his calm demeanor and congenial nature, Scott is highly regarded by his Senate colleagues. He’s viewed as a solid conservative who strives to make good legislation. And he’s also a keen political operative to boot. Scott endorsed Donald Trump right after dropping out of the race himself earlier this year and appears to be playing the “auditioning game” for V.P. quite well. Scott has appeared with Trump at events numerous times. There is now speculation he will attend Trump’s trial.
Who else might AMAC members like if not Scott? Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Trump’s former press secretary, was mentioned by many in the poll comment section as was former Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democrat. Could Gabbard be part of a Trump unity ticket? Abraham Lincoln did as much with Democrat Andrew Johnson in 1864. While possible, many pundits see Gabbard more as a solid Cabinet choice than vice president.
The name game and waiting game will continue, with the only other mystery as to WHO will be named is WHEN the number two will be named. Stayed tuned.
Jeff Szymanski works in political communications at AMAC, a senior benefits organization with over 2 million members. He previously taught high school social studies for 15 years.