While some predictions are wild, others look good bets for 2026. One is that the FBI investigation into state level Medicaid fraud – aggressive in Minnesota and Maine – will widen. Less noticed is the likelihood that Medicaid reform will also rise, if Republicans win in these blue states.
On the fraud side, federal investigators are unearthing fraudulent programs by the dozens, nine billion dollars’ worth in Minnesota already, many centered on the Somali voting community, lucrative state contracts with no oversight, presumably given for Democrat votes (quid pro quo).
If the same proves true in Maine, watch the political process explode. In Minnesota, which has more than 60,000 concentrated – not assimilated – Somali refugees, 78 indictments and 50 convictions have been returned, with 90 cases pending and Democrat politicians on the hot seat.
In Maine, one-tenth that number of Somalis (6000) are resident, and rumored lucrative state contracts – all signed by Democrats, many sole-source, non-compete – are not limited to Somalis.
Unfortunately, Maine is a one-party state – no accountability. The Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State (running for governor), are above the law. Anti-corruption statutes go unenforced.
Maine’s Governor (now running for Senate) claims to know nothing about the Somali-centric fraud, while the Attorney General – pushed for months to investigate – only just stalled payments to one suspect Somali-run non-profit. There are dozens, radiating outward.
Looking over the horizon – as a former federal investigator and litigator – expect a few things.
First, in Maine and other states – already implicated – the “coverup” will continue until either a federal indictment issues, or a Republican governor who is resolved to prosecute takes office.
Second, types of fraud found in Minnesota and Maine will be found in other states, particularly as the methods and communities in these two states are similar. Fraud easily leaps state borders.
Third, the variety of fraud types – overbilling, false billing, falsified monitoring, and non-provision of paid services will broaden. Once a criminal network finds it can easily game a state or federal program, the organization typically widens the ways in which it defrauds that state.
Fourth, seeing fraud in the Minnesota autism and childcare programs, a revolting pattern of false claims, stealing money on false pretenses – the likelihood is high that the same exists elsewhere, not just in Maine but in states permissive of ethnically-controlled organized crime.
Fifth, the political dimension in Minnesota, Maine, and other Democrat states may be bigger than theft. The allegation in Minnesota, now in Maine, is that “non-profits” are involved in a money-for-election support – or even for votes – scheme. Call it reverse pay to play: The politician pays.
Put differently, if you see a bunch of wide receivers scoring touchdowns, you know there is a quarterback throwing passes. Who in Minnesota and Maine governments are quarterbacking this? For certain, there are other shoes to fall, Democrat appointees and politicians to fall.
But the other half of this discussion, after the criminals are caught and prosecuted, is how to get Medicaid back on track – create accountability. One good answer is in red states, such as Indiana.
Following the Indiana blueprint, fast actions will put states like Minnesota or Maine back on track, even as deeper dismantling and reconstruction of state government occurs.
Top ideas include tighter accountability for Medicaid, SNAP and a dozen other federal-state programs subject to recurring abuse. Examples are legion, but a few help point the way.
Of value would be higher state-level work requirements for SNAP, so “able-bodied” recipients must work, volunteer, or go back to school (a win-win) to get benefits. Maine has 32,000 labor openings.
Next, reinstate income and asset verification – and make them quarterly not annual – to assure those getting benefits need them, curtailing fraud. Another need is to validate disability/incapacity, including of someone being cared for by the benefit recipient (an exemption in Maine).
To that, add federal support for entrepreneurial recipients, helping them get self-reliant, ending access to unhealthy foods, studying chronic diseases in SNAP populations for prevention, incentivize healthy eating, and pushing fitness standards in schools.
As eligibility errors – intentional, reckless, and accidental – are a cause of fraud, this area warrants intensive executive oversight. Incentivizing graduation from welfare benefits is vital, ends the cycle.
If Republicans regain control in these one-party, low-oversight, low-integrity states, chances of re-establishing higher accountability and outcomes is high. Fraud and waste can be cut. Why this has not been done to date is sadly obvious, those in charge do not care. Republicans should. Medicaid fraud must end, and reforms be put in place. Electing Republicans in 2026 will make that possible.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, Maine attorney, ten-year naval intelligence officer (USNR), and 25-year businessman. He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (North Country Press, 2018), and “Cherish America: Stories of Courage, Character, and Kindness” (Tower Publishing, 2024). He is National Spokesman for AMAC. Today, he is running to be Maine’s next Governor. BobbyforMaine.com
