Even a shooter’s bullet hasn’t been enough to slow down Donald Trump. Just days after an assassination attempt, the former president is expected to appear at the RNC Convention in Milwaukee on Thursday, where he will continue the impressive momentum his campaign has built up in recent months.
As opponent struggles to hold onto his party’s nomination, Trump has shown all the signs of a lock on “Big Mo” – a momentum marked by crowds that are massive and not only enthusiastic but emotional, fundraising that hit record levels, a new “expand the map” strategy to win blue states, a finely-honed campaign message and meetings with key voter groups from the inner city to Silicon Valley.
Conventional wisdom in American politics holds that the summer of an election year—particularly the months leading up to each party’s nominating convention—is a time to consolidate support among the ranks of one’s own party before aggressively ramping up campaign events, voter outreach initiatives, and other electoral strategies to chip away at the opposing party’s base of support in the post-Labor Day sprint to Election Day.
During this cycle, however, Trump has sped up that timeline, embarking on an October-style campaign schedule in the spring and summer – all while Biden fights for his political life and desperately seeks to fend off calls from the left to bow out of the race.
This contrast is reflected in polling averages, as Biden bleeds support and Trump surges in key swing states. While the incumbent president is struggling to hold the Democrat base together, the former president has firmly consolidated allegiance from core Republican voters and is now making noteworthy gains with demographics that have historically voted Democrat.
Even in the weeks prior to the late June debate in Atlanta that put Biden’s campaign on life support, nearly all of the political energy and campaign momentum was squarely on the side of Donald Trump.
Just days before the June 27 debate, Trump held a massive rally in the Democrat stronghold of Philadelphia, where he pledged to end the “wave of bedlam and death and terror” afflicting Democrat-run cities. A few days before that, he hosted a community roundtable discussion at a church in Detroit as part of a pitch to black voters.
Also in June, Trump attended roundtables with business leaders, addressed Silicon Valley donors at San Francisco fundraisers, and held major campaign events in key battlegrounds like Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Virginia, each meant to fortify Trump’s position as the dominant force in the race less than four months out from the election.
Meanwhile, Trump has enjoyed consistent good polling news not only nationally and in every swing state, but also in states that have historically backed Democrats. According to a recent Rasmussen poll, Trump bests Biden by a whopping six-point margin nationally. In Arizona, Nevada, and in Pennsylvania, Trump leads by as many as seven points. He also leads by six in Wisconsin, four in Michigan, eight in North Carolina, five in Georgia, and two in New Hampshire.
In a new survey out this week, Trump even leads Biden by three points in Virginia – where the president won by 10 percent in 2020. Polls also show Trump and Biden essentially tied in Minnesota—where Democrats have won every presidential election since 1972 respectively. In the deep blue states of New Jersey and New Mexico, where Biden won by 16 percent and 11 percent, respectively, four years ago, Biden leads by a margin of seven.
In a sign of just how panicked Biden and the Democrats have become about Trump’s overwhelming electoral advantage, Politico recently published a report outlining the left’s fears that even New York – long a cradle of progressive politics and a bastion of Democrat power – is now a “battleground state” and is becoming “surprisingly competitive.”
Moreover, Trump continues to make gains with key voting blocs, including black voters, Hispanic voters, Independents, and young Americans.
Given these figures, if current trends hold, Donald Trump is poised not only to win the election but to triumph over Biden in a blowout so massive that it could realign American electoral politics for the foreseeable future.
In the words of a recent essay in The Atlantic detailing Trump’s campaign strategy and operations, Team Trump is preparing not only for wins in the Electoral College and national popular vote, but for a victory so lopsided that it would “obliterate entire down-ballot garrisons of the Democratic Party, forcing the American left to fundamentally recalibrate its approach to immigration, economics, policing, and the many cultural positions that have antagonized the working class”—thereby perhaps permanently altering “the nation’s political DNA.”
Of course, four months is a lifetime in American politics. Given the lingering uncertainty surrounding Biden’s status as his party’s standard bearer, the dynamics of the race are almost certain to change at least marginally in the weeks and months ahead. But as the RNC convention continues its prime-time show and Republicans turn their attention toward the home stretch of the campaign, there is little doubt that every ounce of momentum, energy, and political fortune is firmly on the side of the GOP – thanks to Trump.
The most important thing for the 45th president now will be sustaining his current momentum through November 5.
Aaron Flanigan is the pen name of a writer in Washington, D.C.