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Trump Campaign Has October Feel In Mid-July

Posted on Wednesday, July 17, 2024
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by Aaron Flanigan
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30 Comments
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Even a shooter’s bullet hasn’t been enough to slow down Donald Trump. Just days after an assassination attempt, the former president is expected to appear at the RNC Convention in Milwaukee on Thursday, where he will continue the impressive momentum his campaign has built up in recent months.

As opponent struggles to hold onto his party’s nomination, Trump has shown all the signs of a lock on “Big Mo” – a momentum marked by crowds that are massive and not only enthusiastic but emotional, fundraising that hit record levels, a new “expand the map” strategy to win blue states, a finely-honed campaign message and meetings with key voter groups from the inner city to Silicon Valley.

Conventional wisdom in American politics holds that the summer of an election year—particularly the months leading up to each party’s nominating convention—is a time to consolidate support among the ranks of one’s own party before aggressively ramping up campaign events, voter outreach initiatives, and other electoral strategies to chip away at the opposing party’s base of support in the post-Labor Day sprint to Election Day.

During this cycle, however, Trump has sped up that timeline, embarking on an October-style campaign schedule in the spring and summer – all while Biden fights for his political life and desperately seeks to fend off calls from the left to bow out of the race.

This contrast is reflected in polling averages, as Biden bleeds support and Trump surges in key swing states. While the incumbent president is struggling to hold the Democrat base together, the former president has firmly consolidated allegiance from core Republican voters and is now making noteworthy gains with demographics that have historically voted Democrat.

Even in the weeks prior to the late June debate in Atlanta that put Biden’s campaign on life support, nearly all of the political energy and campaign momentum was squarely on the side of Donald Trump.

Just days before the June 27 debate, Trump held a massive rally in the Democrat stronghold of Philadelphia, where he pledged to end the “wave of bedlam and death and terror” afflicting Democrat-run cities. A few days before that, he hosted a community roundtable discussion at a church in Detroit as part of a pitch to black voters.

Also in June, Trump attended roundtables with business leaders, addressed Silicon Valley donors at San Francisco fundraisers, and held major campaign events in key battlegrounds like Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Virginia, each meant to fortify Trump’s position as the dominant force in the race less than four months out from the election.

Meanwhile, Trump has enjoyed consistent good polling news not only nationally and in every swing state, but also in states that have historically backed Democrats. According to a recent Rasmussen poll, Trump bests Biden by a whopping six-point margin nationally. In Arizona, Nevada, and in Pennsylvania, Trump leads by as many as seven points. He also leads by six in Wisconsin, four in Michigan, eight in North Carolina, five in Georgia, and two in New Hampshire.

In a new survey out this week, Trump even leads Biden by three points in Virginia – where the president won by 10 percent in 2020. Polls also show Trump and Biden essentially tied in Minnesota—where Democrats have won every presidential election since 1972 respectively. In the deep blue states of New Jersey and New Mexico, where Biden won by 16 percent and 11 percent, respectively, four years ago, Biden leads by a margin of seven.

In a sign of just how panicked Biden and the Democrats have become about Trump’s overwhelming electoral advantage, Politico recently published a report outlining the left’s fears that even New York – long a cradle of progressive politics and a bastion of Democrat power – is now a “battleground state” and is becoming “surprisingly competitive.”

Moreover, Trump continues to make gains with key voting blocs, including black voters, Hispanic voters, Independents, and young Americans.

Given these figures, if current trends hold, Donald Trump is poised not only to win the election but to triumph over Biden in a blowout so massive that it could realign American electoral politics for the foreseeable future.

In the words of a recent essay in The Atlantic detailing Trump’s campaign strategy and operations, Team Trump is preparing not only for wins in the Electoral College and national popular vote, but for a victory so lopsided that it would “obliterate entire down-ballot garrisons of the Democratic Party, forcing the American left to fundamentally recalibrate its approach to immigration, economics, policing, and the many cultural positions that have antagonized the working class”—thereby perhaps permanently altering “the nation’s political DNA.”

Of course, four months is a lifetime in American politics. Given the lingering uncertainty surrounding Biden’s status as his party’s standard bearer, the dynamics of the race are almost certain to change at least marginally in the weeks and months ahead. But as the RNC convention continues its prime-time show and Republicans turn their attention toward the home stretch of the campaign, there is little doubt that every ounce of momentum, energy, and political fortune is firmly on the side of the GOP – thanks to Trump.

The most important thing for the 45th president now will be sustaining his current momentum through November 5.

Aaron Flanigan is the pen name of a writer in Washington, D.C.

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Mike Stertz
Mike Stertz
2 months ago

It is too early to become confident. Dirty Tricks season and October Surprise season are both weeks away.

Nancy
Nancy
2 months ago

In Wisconsin we again have ‘Ballot Drop boxes’. If you are going to take your ballot to a drop box – why don’t you drop it into a mail box. Much safer and makes for better elections. Here in Wisconsin we have lost control of even pretending we have elections without fraud.
Thank you Governor Tony Evers.

John Bass
John Bass
2 months ago

Not much to say, except…Trump, Vance 2024!

Brooke
Brooke
2 months ago

What an amazing convention so far!
Go Trump; and Vance!

Avoter
Avoter
2 months ago

Polls mean nothing. It remains to be seen who votes and in the case of democrats, how often they vote. Unless the democrats come up with an October Surprise of Covid 2.0, the cheating will be more difficult, but they will still find a way. I do think conservative voter turn out will be overwhelming though.

Ken
Ken
2 months ago

I hope it’s a Trump landslide for 2 reasons. First, for the terrible job Biden has done, he deserves to be beaten badly. Second and this is more important, if the election is a Trump blowout it will next to impossible for the democraps to cheat. It would be hard for them to find enough dead people to make up the difference in the ballots.

Grace Larson
Grace Larson
2 months ago

Trump will be our president UNLESS the Democrats pull off another “best voter fraud” ever.

Leslie
Leslie
2 months ago

I’ve voted for Trump twice, even though I don’t particularly like him. He has toned down his rhetoric, hopefully that will last, and I feel much more confident that we have a chance in November. BUT, we MUST win the house and senate if anything meaningful is to get done. Face it, Congress only cares about itself, not we the people. The good guys are quitting, hard to blame them, because they can’t stand the quagmire. Each of us has to convince one Independent and one Democrat to vote for the country, not for Trump. He is the only chance we have to get America back on track before its too late.

Myrna
Myrna
2 months ago

When we look at all the attempts to defeat President Trump, it is inspiring to see how he emerges. He will keep going. Ben Carson said it best(paraphrase): no matter what his enemies do to him he will just fight harder.

Eldridge (AL) Koppen
Eldridge (AL) Koppen
2 months ago

I believe tomorrow is sentencing day for President Trump in his kangaroo court conviction. Let’s pray that he doesn’t get prison or house arrest, or bad things might happen.

Dave K
Dave K
2 months ago

Don’t be looking for a Red Wave to occur if you don’t vote because complacency will NOT elect President Trump. The democrat party is not done with their tricks and ugly games. We need to VOTE and also encourage others to do so. Polls and waisted “feel good energy” don’t elect Presidents – VOTES do! .

Thinking
Thinking
2 months ago

Does ole Joe still think he can win? In his foggy delusional mind, maybe. Now he is talking about term limit for Supreme Court justices because they are too old. Take a lesson from your own suggestion and you step down and let a young buck take over the job as president of the USA. Not anyone who matches the DEI but has the merits to be president. I think Trump has great momentum even prior the attempt on his life. We are seeing Ole Joe’s decline every day. The lies he keeps telling have been shown to be lies but he hasn’t caught up with that news because he only remembers what he learned in the past. He is totally lost today and it only gets worth because his ego is getting in the way. Plus his family needs him to stay. It looks better to loose the election than be dismissed by your party and having to leave the White House with the tail between your legs. Just a question who has the most power. The Dem party, the deep state and O with the rest of the senators and representatives, plus Soros, Gates, The Business community and not to forget Silicon Valley, Meta, Google and the elites in Davos.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
2 months ago

I’m staying positive… as long as I can anyhow.

Vince
Vince
2 months ago

RNC convention has been encouraging. No complacency in our fight to throw these communists out of the “People’s “ government. Election integrity needs to be monitored constantly. Trump/Vance 2024 MAGA.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 months ago

Sure does awesome

Neil Gipson
Neil Gipson
2 months ago

Yes, the seasons have changed!

Melinda
Melinda
2 months ago

I hope he hasn’t peaked too early. But knowing Trump, he has a plan fo the coming months.

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