At the outset of the 2024 U.S. Senate campaign cycle, there was general agreement that eight seats held by Democrats would be in play, and perhaps two seats held by Republicans.
Over the past few days, that estimate has changed dramatically.
Although the two GOP seats could still become competitive, incumbent Texas Senator Ted Cruz and incumbent Florida Senator Rick Scott now seem likely to hold on to their seats.
On the Democrat side, however, the original battleground seats remain quite vulnerable, while four more seats previously thought to be quite safe are now in play, creating serious problems for the Democrats’ strategists hoping to prevent a big conservative majority in the Senate.
Two of these races already seem to have been decided. In West Virginia, popular GOP Governor Jim Justice has a commanding lead to pick up the seat of retiring Democrat Joe Manchin. In Maryland, former popular Republican Governor Larry Hogan has a double-digit lead over either of his likely Democrat opponents in the race to replace retiring liberal Ben Cardin.
Maryland is a very blue state, and the race wasn’t expected to be close until Hogan’s surprise last-minute candidacy.
These two very likely GOP Senate pick-ups alone would give the conservative party the majority, assuming no Republican seat losses.
The Democrats, however face losing up to 9 or even 10 additional seats they now hold.
Two of those seats are in Montana and Ohio, both strong red states with incumbent Democrats up for re-election this cycle. Senator Jon Tester of
Montana and Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio are formidable, but the GOP has come up with especially strong challengers, businessmen Tim Sheehey in Montana and Bernie Moreno in Ohio. Both races are already statistical ties. With Donald Trump likely to carry both states by large margins, these races could be GOP pick-ups in 2024.
In Pennsylvania, likely Republican nominee David McCormick is trailing incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey by a small margin. But McCormick, who lost the 2022 GOP primary by a tiny margin, has no serious primary opponent this cycle, can self-fund, and comes from western Pennsylvania. That region of the state is a usual stronghold for Democrats, but was hit hard by Biden administration energy and economic policies. The Keystone State is purple, but could easily go Republican this year and take down two-termer Casey in the process.
Three western state Democratic senate seats also face real challengers in 2024. Incumbents Jackie Rosen of Nevada, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, and the seat of retiring Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona currently have the Democrats ahead, but Sam Brown in Nevada, Nella Domenici in New Mexico, and Kari Lake in Arizona are potentially strong challengers who could win in 2024.
There are no polls yet in the New Mexico contest, but Domenici is the daughter of Pete Domenici, the very popular long-time senator, and she can self-fund her campaign.
Seats in Michigan and Wisconsin are up for grabs this year as well. When incumbent Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow announced her retirement, this seat came into play. Currently, likely liberal nominee Elisa Slotkin has a narrow lead over likely GOP nominee Mike Rogers.
In Wisconsin, incumbent Tammy Baldwin narrowly leads her probable challenger, conservative businessman Eric Hovde. Both these states could go Republican this year.
Finally, two more Democratic seats considered quite safe have unexpectedly come into a degree of play.
In California, liberal House member Adam Schiff has secured the Democratic nomination to replace the late Diane Feinstein. Schiff defeated two more progressive women in the primary, but to do it, he promoted, through paid ads, a Republican baseball celebrity, Steve Garvey. (Since California has an all-party “jungle” primary where the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff in November, it was to Schiff’s advantage to promote Garvey rather than risk facing another Democrat this fall.)
The gambit worked, but perhaps too well. Schiff’s promotion of Republican Garvey also provoked increased GOP turnout statewide, endangering several otherwise safe liberal House seats, making Democrats mad at Schiff. Although Schiff will probably win in November, Garvey’s celebrity status gives him more heft than just being the GOP nominee, and with Republican turnout now likely to be stronger than usual, Schiff will now have to take the race much more seriously to avoid an upset.
New Jersey, like California, is a very blue state, and despite incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Menendez being criminally indicted last year, was expected to elect a Democrat to his seat this year. But Menendez, proclaiming his innocence, refused to resign, and has now said that if he is found not guilty at his imminent May trial, he would run for re-election as an independent. Should that happen, a strong GOP candidate could win the three-way race, although Congressman Andy Kim, now the likely Democratic nominee, remains the favorite.
The recent unexpected political developments in Maryland, New Mexico, California, and now possibly in New Jersey have each enhanced Republican Senate prospects in 2024.
Unlike 2022, when GOP “red wave” optimism turned into a bust on Election Day, Republicans under Senate campaign chair Steve Daines of Montana have recruited strong challengers for most races.
Republicans are not going to win all of the above battleground races, but they do need to win more than the two pick-ups they are now likely to win. Especially if GOP and independent turnout is robust, Republican fundraising is strong, and the GOP successfully counteracts Democratic Election Day strategies, the sudden downpour of political breaks going Republicans’ way signals a very good night for the conservative party this November.
