AMAC EXCLUSIVE
Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s announcement on February 28 that he will be stepping down from his post in November has touched off an internal GOP power struggle over his replacement. While it’s still unclear who the frontrunner in that contest is, the outcome of the race could determine the direction of the Senate Republican caucus for decades to come.
While the 82-year-old McConnell leaves behind a complex legacy, it is undeniable that his exit will create a huge void on the Republican Senate leadership team. McConnell is the longest serving Senate party leader in American history. He has occupied the top GOP post in the Senate for more than 17 years, serving as minority leader from 2007 to 2015, majority leader from 2015 to 2021, and minority leader from 2021 to the present. In that same time, House Republicans have been led by five different figures—John Boehner, Paul Ryan, Kevin McCarthy, interim speaker Patrick McHenry, and now Speaker Mike Johnson.
Immediately following McConnell’s retirement announcement, the senators who seemed best positioned to replace him were the so-called “Three Johns” – South Dakota Senator John Thune, Texas Senator John Cornyn, and Wyoming Senator John Barrasso.
Since then, Barrasso, the current third-highest ranked Senate Republican, has said that he intends to seek the number two spot.
Thune and Cornyn, meanwhile, have jockeyed for the lead in the race after both officially announced their candidacy in early March.
Thune, a fourth-term senator and the current Senate Republican Whip, enjoys close relationships with a number of old-guard Republicans, and has called the leadership race a chance for a “reset.”
Cornyn, meanwhile, knows the Senate inside and out as the fourth-longest tenured Republican. He has also developed a reputation as a prolific fundraiser – something which could go far with his Senate colleagues.
In total, McConnell has raised an amazing $1.6 billion for Senate Republicans since 2015, and the caucus will be eager for someone with the proven ability to match or even exceed that. Other than McConnell, no Senate Republican has raised more than Cornyn since 2009.
Senator Rick Scott – another strong fundraiser – has emerged as another contender to replace McConnell. Scott ran against McConnell following the 2022 midterms for minority leader, but failed to garner enough support to oust him.
Although Scott has not officially entered the race, he has said that he is “seriously considering it” and cited a number of other GOP senators who he believes would support him, including Rand Paul (KY), Ted Cruz (TX), Mike Lee (UT), Ron Johnson (WI), J.D. Vance (OH), and Josh Hawley (MO). However, no one has endorsed him in the race yet.
Scott notably told conservative commentator Charlie Kirk that if he were elected leader he would pursue a different approach from McConnell. “I think there’s a better way to run the Senate,” he told Kirk on his podcast, going on to say that if senators want to take “the same path we’ve been going down,” then they shouldn’t vote for him.
Although Cornyn, Thune, and Scott are likely the three frontrunners, some other dark horse contenders are Joni Ernst of Iowa, Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, and J.D. Vance of Ohio.
Ernst is currently the number four Republican in the Senate and chairs the Senate Republican Policy Committee. Hagerty, while still relatively new to the Senate (he was just elected in 2020) brings an impressive background of business and diplomatic experience, including serving as former President Donald Trump’s Ambassador to Japan.
The 39-year-old Vance, still a freshman senator, undoubtedly has the longest odds of the bunch to make a real bid for leader, but has quickly established himself as an intellectual force in the conference. For him, a longshot leadership bid may serve as a prime opportunity to raise his national profile and set himself up for more leadership opportunities in the future.
The biggest – and most important – remaining question is what role Trump will play in the race.
A number of senators have already made clear that they will only support a candidate for leader who embraces Trump’s “America First” agenda and has shown allegiance to the former president. “I think we need a leader in the Senate who is a conservative. I think we need a leader in the Senate who can work hand-in-hand with President Trump,” Texas Senator Cruz said on Fox News’ Life, Liberty & Levin earlier this month. “Republicans, when we have the majority, we tend to be half-assed and just do a little bit.”
Thune could run into trouble there, as he supported fellow Senator Tim Scott for president over Trump before Scott dropped out of the race. Thune has also publicly criticized Trump in the past. Since entering the leadership race, however, Thune has tried to cozy up to the former president.
Cornyn has also previously faced backlash for his work with Democrats on gun control legislation and an education bill that, as AMAC Newsline reported, likely would have provided an avenue for Democrats to mandate the teaching of Critical Race Theory in schools. Despite his fundraising advantages and seniority, Cornyn may have an uphill battle to prove to Senate conservatives that he will adequately defend their priorities.
This could create a potential lane for an unexpected contender like Hagerty or Vance to rise to the fore, particularly if Trump decides to endorse one of them. With an opportunity, as Thune noted, to “reset” the Senate GOP, it may be reset in a decidedly pro-Trump, America First direction after November.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @ShaneHarris513.
