The gambler that doubles down and doubles down until out of money, out of credit, out of luck, and out of friends – is often out on the street. Putin is that guy, high risk-high reward, and when losing higher risk, until out of options. He is not there yet, but the day approaches. See, e.g., Putin has ‘no way out’ of failed Ukraine invasion, former NATO ambassador says.
Putin’s decision-making – rather obviously – is flawed. It was flawed from the outset, as a former KGB agent wielding power for 22 years would naturally be. Beyond looking back, he assumes old Soviet ways will bring success. He is literally fighting the last war.
Why did this gambler get it so wrong? First, he assumed those around him tell him the truth when they are chiefly motivated by personal power, position, and fear – they are “yes” men.
He assumed the Russian Army, objectively underfunded, undertrained, and unmotivated, is the former Red Army, only it is not. He assumed Ukraine 2022 is Czechoslovakia 1938 – or 1967, or Hungary 1956, Poland 1982 – only it is not, and those victories failed.
The “ash heap of history” is waiting. The gambler talks big keeps increasing his bet, never stops at a win, thinks Lady Luck (and history) will aid him, disparages odds, ignores losses, blames others, and smothers – himself. That is Putin.
One other sign of a bad gambler, one sure to lose it all, is the more they lose, the more confident they are they can win it all back. The more he ought to doubt, the more confidence he projects.
When it comes to warfighting, gambling of the highest kind, three factors decide everything.
One is material, hard numbers, facts, and force structure – how many trained infantry, airplanes, missiles, drones, pieces of artillery, strength of resupply, and physical parameters.
One is spirit or heart, which affects motivation and morale, the will to be all-in during the fight, take it all to the enemy, vilify them, stay the course, suffer, not let up, win the day.
Last is dumb luck, meaning when, how, where, what, and with what effect arrive uncontrollable conditions, the ones that define the battlespace, like weather, resistance, freelance hackers, physical obstacles, depleted moral capital, spirit and resupply of opponents, and slippage of plans.
The rub: Putin, a high-stakes, damn-the-world gambler, does not have the factors needed to win. His material, hardware, parts, supply lines, air dominance, training, missile versatility, and officer knowledge base and judgment – are objectively poor and getting worse.
On spirit, heart, and morale, the beleaguered German Army at the end of WWII probably had higher spirit de corps than Russian soldiers today. They do not know why they are there, as basic rationale and the narrative comes under fire. They did not want to be here, more each week.
The more things slow, the lower their morale will be. Bogged down supply, resistance growing, eroding gains, and a loss of tactical surprise and momentum – all bode poorly for Putin’s Army.
Last, Lady Luck is not with Putin, dealing him opposition unity, leaving large parts of the Russian Army fumbling against physical and social barriers, creating doubt about his invasion, even from China.
Net-net, the gambler has to “know when to hold them, and know when to fold them,” and perhaps know when there are no more cards to be dealt, or even hoped on.
Putin’s options are narrowing. He may threaten the entire world – with nuclear weapons or some rogue act upping the ante, assuring his own destruction and Russia’s. Or he may back and fill, saying he got what he wanted, then consolidating what illegal actions produced.
Facts vector to one conclusion. While this war could go on months, and may witness a growing insurgency, pressure on Putin will grow not to shrink. He is unlikely to use a nuclear weapon since that would earn Russia vilification akin to Nazi Germany. He is most likely to stop asking for cards, find a way to be done, then start justifying what is without justification. Odds are, even as the insurgency continues, the last option is his best. But then, as we know, gamblers defy logic.