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Putin the Gambler

Posted on Monday, March 21, 2022
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by AMAC, Robert B. Charles
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101 Comments
Russian

The gambler that doubles down and doubles down until out of money, out of credit, out of luck, and out of friends – is often out on the street. Putin is that guy, high risk-high reward, and when losing higher risk, until out of options. He is not there yet, but the day approaches. See, e.g., Putin has ‘no way out’ of failed Ukraine invasion, former NATO ambassador says.

Putin’s decision-making – rather obviously – is flawed. It was flawed from the outset, as a former KGB agent wielding power for 22 years would naturally be. Beyond looking back, he assumes old Soviet ways will bring success. He is literally fighting the last war.

Why did this gambler get it so wrong? First, he assumed those around him tell him the truth when they are chiefly motivated by personal power, position, and fear – they are “yes” men.

He assumed the Russian Army, objectively underfunded, undertrained, and unmotivated, is the former Red Army, only it is not. He assumed Ukraine 2022 is Czechoslovakia 1938 – or 1967, or Hungary 1956, Poland 1982 – only it is not, and those victories failed. 

The “ash heap of history” is waiting. The gambler talks big keeps increasing his bet, never stops at a win, thinks Lady Luck (and history) will aid him, disparages odds, ignores losses, blames others, and smothers – himself. That is Putin.

One other sign of a bad gambler, one sure to lose it all, is the more they lose, the more confident they are they can win it all back. The more he ought to doubt, the more confidence he projects.

When it comes to warfighting, gambling of the highest kind, three factors decide everything.

One is material, hard numbers, facts, and force structure – how many trained infantry, airplanes, missiles, drones, pieces of artillery, strength of resupply, and physical parameters.

One is spirit or heart, which affects motivation and morale, the will to be all-in during the fight, take it all to the enemy, vilify them, stay the course, suffer, not let up, win the day. 

Last is dumb luck, meaning when, how, where, what, and with what effect arrive uncontrollable conditions, the ones that define the battlespace, like weather, resistance, freelance hackers, physical obstacles, depleted moral capital, spirit and resupply of opponents, and slippage of plans.

The rub: Putin, a high-stakes, damn-the-world gambler, does not have the factors needed to win. His material, hardware, parts, supply lines, air dominance, training, missile versatility, and officer knowledge base and judgment – are objectively poor and getting worse.

On spirit, heart, and morale, the beleaguered German Army at the end of WWII probably had higher spirit de corps than Russian soldiers today. They do not know why they are there, as basic rationale and the narrative comes under fire. They did not want to be here, more each week.

The more things slow, the lower their morale will be. Bogged down supply, resistance growing, eroding gains, and a loss of tactical surprise and momentum – all bode poorly for Putin’s Army.

Last, Lady Luck is not with Putin, dealing him opposition unity, leaving large parts of the Russian Army fumbling against physical and social barriers, creating doubt about his invasion, even from China.

Net-net, the gambler has to “know when to hold them, and know when to fold them,” and perhaps know when there are no more cards to be dealt, or even hoped on. 

Putin’s options are narrowing. He may threaten the entire world – with nuclear weapons or some rogue act upping the ante, assuring his own destruction and Russia’s. Or he may back and fill, saying he got what he wanted, then consolidating what illegal actions produced.

Facts vector to one conclusion. While this war could go on months, and may witness a growing insurgency, pressure on Putin will grow not to shrink. He is unlikely to use a nuclear weapon since that would earn Russia vilification akin to Nazi Germany. He is most likely to stop asking for cards, find a way to be done, then start justifying what is without justification. Odds are, even as the insurgency continues, the last option is his best. But then, as we know, gamblers defy logic.

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Tigerbob
Tigerbob
2 years ago

I am very disappointed in the article. I thought AARP wrote it. Putin is helping to take down the DS in very corrupt Ukraine. He strategically bombed places which were the labs. If he wanted a war he would have just bombed wherever. Most photos and videos are
From other events in other countries. He wants the neonazis and Azov out. They are the ones killing their own people. Russia brought in tons of food and aid. If AMAC continues to write like this I will not be renewing. And I just recommended your mag to someone. Stop watching the MSM. The Ukraine is not a sovereign nation.

Aardvark
Aardvark
2 years ago

Wow, has Amac got this one wrong! Putin is helping take down the deep state’s money laundering operations and bio weapons labs in Ukraine, and quite successfully I might add. The Ukrainian neo Nazi’s are using Ukrainian citizens as human shields in a losing battle against a far superior force. (See: rumble.com/search/video?q=Ukraine%20civilian%20shields )
Ukraine is a huge center for the deep state cabal and all the media is lying about what is really going on there while the fake Biden administration is pushing for nuclear war ( which they will NOT get). Biden does not control the nuclear football (or codes) or the majority of the military (devolution).

Aardvark
Aardvark
2 years ago

If you believe anything coming out of NATO, you might as well be reprinting CNN opinion pieces.
See rumble.com/vxnhjw-laura-logan-non-stop-truth-bombs-on-americas-voice.-ya-she-really-said-that.html
and:
rumble.com/c/c-1102531

DBM
DBM
2 years ago

This article is not even close. Putin is not losing. It’s just taking longer than he expected. And with the incompetent Biden in the White house, he can be expected to win since he has no real opposition from there.

Momcat
Momcat
2 years ago

Putin is taking out the trash!
Zelensky is a NWO puppet like Trudeau, Macron, et al. Our Ukrainian immigrant neighbors are FOR Russia taking Zelensky out.
WHO is FOR UKRAINE? Soros, Biden, Hillary, MSM! That should tell you all you need to know. Why do they want Ukraine protected at a huge cost to us? Hillary, Biden, Pelosi, Kerry, Romney- all are making money off Ukraine! Valerie Nuland played a huge role in overthrowing the legitimate Ukrainian govt in 2014 using tactics suspiciously similar to those used by blm & antifa in 2020.
Russia is a definite threat to Biden & the deep state
WATCH:
Ukraine on Fire Part 1
rumble.com/vwxxi8-ukraine-on-fire.html
Ukraine on Fire Part 2
rumble.com/vwpby2-revealing-ukraine-continued-investigations-of-crisis-following-ukraine-on-f.html

Momcat
Momcat
2 years ago

‘Democracy’ Ukraine: Zelenskyy Suspends 11 Opposition Parties Becoming Head Of A One-Party State
Zelenskyy is a tyranical dictator
thegatewaypundit.com/2022/03/sovereign-democracy-ukraine-zelenskyy-suspends-11-opposition-parties-becoming-head-one-party-state/

Momcat
Momcat
2 years ago

Zelenskyy is not the victim the msm, Soros, Clinton, Biden, Obama, Kerry, Pelosi, etc, want you to believe. Our neighbors are Ukrainian immigrants & are happy Putin is going in to remove the corrupt Zelenskyy.
Here’s a video of a 4th generation Ukrainian that supports Russian invasion. Biden stands to lose BILLION$ if Russia wins the war as does Pelosi, Kerry, Romney, & Obama. Why did Obama put biolabs there? This war is about Ukrainian & US deep srate swamp CORRUPTION, nothing else.
bitchute.com/video/xVb6gz9rEytC/

Divinasenia Terrasi
Divinasenia Terrasi
2 years ago

Anything that the evil Demoncrats support and propagandize, be wary.

Demeter
Demeter
2 years ago

This is full of it. Try getting out of the propaganda bath. Put Biden in wherever you mention Putin, and you’ll have something real and truthful.

old silk
old silk
2 years ago

This article reminds me of old cold war era pentagon propaganda, and it is under campaign news.

Virginia Walcott
Virginia Walcott
2 years ago

You are so off the mark. WATCH OLIVER STONE’S UKRAINE ON FIRE AND LEARN HISTORY, THEN WATCH RET. COL. MACGREGOR’S REMARKS OF LATE.

Donnie G
Donnie G
2 years ago

You are RINO Deep State shills. I’m done eith AMAC. Adios.

Donnie G
Donnie G
2 years ago

Catering to deep state mafia, lifetime politician crime families and Ukranian neoNazis killing their own people. Shame on you, AMAC.

Casey C Matt
Casey C Matt
2 years ago

Im really sorry that AMAC is also following the media/corporate/political narrative……but almost all of this article is specious. First how is it gambling when Putin has already won? Ukraine will fall and no as todays news proves Zelinsky is no democracy deity. As for Russia having no friends. What about China, India, Brazil…..numerous other countries that are backing or at least not posing to denounce or embargo Russia? Thats a LOT of friends.
I love America but in this instance it is we that are largely friendless. The UK remains our lapdog but Germany is not going through with oil embargos……France either nor Italy.

Who again has the least friends in this idiotic Ukraine fervor campaign?

William Kilgore
William Kilgore
2 years ago

I can get this kind of propaganda from ARRP and is why I joined, I thought, you folks at AMAC! I thought AMAC had conservative patriotic values, always seeking individual research for truth!

Brian
Brian
2 years ago

I guess I don’t understand what this highly speculative piece of wishful thinking is supposed to accomplish. Unlike the mainstream media, AMAC is directly dependent on it’s members (or is it?) for funding and clearly it’s members are not buying what AMAC is selling (figuratively). If this trend continues, I will withdraw my support.

Willie Ryan
Willie Ryan
2 years ago

This would not be going on if Trump was president.I believe we are going to be attacked and it will be worse than 9-11.Watch out New York they have you on there number one list.

Tigerbob
Tigerbob
2 years ago

I am very disappointed in the article. I thought AARP wrote it. Putin is helping to take down the DS in very corrupt Ukraine. He strategically bombed places which were the labs. If he wanted a war he would have just bombed wherever. Most photos and videos are
From other events in other countries. He wants the neonazis and Azov out. They are the ones killing their own people. Russia brought in tons of food and aid. If AMAC continues to write like this I will not be renewing. And I just recommended your mag to someone. Stop watching the MSM. The Ukraine is not a sovereign nation.

Aardvark
Aardvark
2 years ago

Wow, has Amac got this one wrong! Putin is helping take down the deep state’s money laundering operations and bio weapons labs in Ukraine, and quite successfully I might add. The Ukrainian neo Nazi’s are using Ukrainian citizens as human shields in a losing battle against a far superior force. (See: rumble.com/search/video?q=Ukraine%20civilian%20shields )
Ukraine is a huge center for the deep state cabal and all the media is lying about what is really going on there while the fake Biden administration is pushing for nuclear war ( which they will NOT get). Biden does not control the nuclear football (or codes) or the majority of the military (devolution).

Lee
Lee
2 years ago

He has Hypersonic missles. We don’t. Is this a last gasp, or a new start? Looks like he still has a few hole cards. It is hard to actually find any news that is not propaganda filled on both sides. People are dying needlessly, that is all I know.

Rik
Rik
2 years ago

The “old” SOVIET WAYS WERE NEVER SUCCESSFUL, but Putin dreams of “restoring” what was NEVER THERE! . . . Can’t fault him for lack of trying though!

Aardvark
Aardvark
2 years ago

If you believe anything coming out of NATO, you might as well be reprinting CNN opinion pieces.
See rumble.com/vxnhjw-laura-logan-non-stop-truth-bombs-on-americas-voice.-ya-she-really-said-that.html
and:
rumble.com/c/c-1102531

Luke
Luke
2 years ago

Good article. Well-written. And, apparently spot-on. For now. I worry for Ukraine people displaced and disowned. A generation uprooted for no apparent reason. First-world cities being destroyed…for no apparent reason. Putin is delusional but the Russian people, (like Americans, Chinese et.al.), have been lied to for so long that opinions by citizens many times sound as insane as their ‘leaders’. I don’t see an end to this until some despot with access to nukes comes completely unhinged. Putin isn’t there yet.

Richard F Werstein
Richard F Werstein
2 years ago

While each point made is valid, there is more to this gambler. The first is to also “know your opponent.” He appears to have done that fairly well. He has called Biden right. He has also called Nato right but did miss a few things (another topic for another day). He also is not out of cards and he is not through gambling. He has the nuclear card to play. We and Nato do not know if he will play it and if so, when. Thus, he has called our hand accurately. We are more afraid of what may be in his cards than he is of ours.

DBM
DBM
2 years ago

This article is not even close. Putin is not losing. It’s just taking longer than he expected. And with the incompetent Biden in the White house, he can be expected to win since he has no real opposition from there.

Myrna Wade
Myrna Wade
2 years ago

Well written.

Momcat
Momcat
2 years ago

Putin is taking out the trash!
Zelensky is a NWO puppet like Trudeau, Macron, et al. Our Ukrainian immigrant neighbors are FOR Russia taking Zelensky out.
WHO is FOR UKRAINE? Soros, Biden, Hillary, MSM! That should tell you all you need to know. Why do they want Ukraine protected at a huge cost to us? Hillary, Biden, Pelosi, Kerry, Romney- all are making money off Ukraine! Valerie Nuland played a huge role in overthrowing the legitimate Ukrainian govt in 2014 using tactics suspiciously similar to those used by blm & antifa in 2020.
Russia is a definite threat to Biden & the deep state
WATCH:
Ukraine on Fire Part 1
rumble.com/vwxxi8-ukraine-on-fire.html
Ukraine on Fire Part 2
rumble.com/vwpby2-revealing-ukraine-continued-investigations-of-crisis-following-ukraine-on-f.html

Momcat
Momcat
2 years ago

‘Democracy’ Ukraine: Zelenskyy Suspends 11 Opposition Parties Becoming Head Of A One-Party State
Zelenskyy is a tyranical dictator
thegatewaypundit.com/2022/03/sovereign-democracy-ukraine-zelenskyy-suspends-11-opposition-parties-becoming-head-one-party-state/

PaulE
PaulE
2 years ago

RBC,

Love the analogy of the gambler. Except in this case, as Putin gets more frustrated with the continued resistance from Ukraine, he seems to have taken a different approach to “winning”. Instead of merely doubling down, he’s opted for a different approach. Originally, Putin obviously wanted Ukraine largely intact, to be subjugated to his will and serve as an example to other former Soviet satellite states, NATO and the United States, that he could reconstitute the old Soviet Union in some form and gain the resources of Ukraine to bolster the Russian economy.

Now with the public embarrassment of the Ukrainians being able to hold out so long against his planned seizure of the country and replacement of its government with puppets he could easily control, he’s now pivoted to another approach. I call it the pouring of lighter fluid on the table and tossing a match to the whole thing approach. If Putin can’t have his first option, then he’ll just bulldoze the country into dust from artillery and missile barrages, until the Ukrainians either relent or there is nothing left. The same approach he used against opposition forces in Syria and elsewhere, when he didn’t care about collateral damage.

I agree with you that Putin won’t resort to nuclear weapons under any circumstances, as that would render the land useless to him for generations. Besides, the threat of nuclear weapons was always a bluff, as any fall-out, would be blown towards Russia itself. Completely counterproductive to his stated goals. He also doesn’t need nuclear weapons to “win”, as in a war of attrition which is where things are right now, he can out last Ukraine as long as NATO and the United States continue to be slow and half-hearted in their responses from Ukraine. All NATO and the United States needed to do was be more proactive and supply Ukraine everything they have already requested, in terms of munitions and planes (no American or NATO troops were ever requested or are needed), BEFORE the Russian forces marched in the country. Instead, the West wasted almost an entire year, curled up in a fetal position, as Putin kept amassing more and more forces on the Ukrainian border.

PaulE
PaulE
2 years ago

Well AMAC it’s so refreshing to have almost every one of my posts censored for no good reason.

Momcat
Momcat
2 years ago

Zelenskyy is not the victim the msm, Soros, Clinton, Biden, Obama, Kerry, Pelosi, etc, want you to believe. Our neighbors are Ukrainian immigrants & are happy Putin is going in to remove the corrupt Zelenskyy.
Here’s a video of a 4th generation Ukrainian that supports Russian invasion. Biden stands to lose BILLION$ if Russia wins the war as does Pelosi, Kerry, Romney, & Obama. Why did Obama put biolabs there? This war is about Ukrainian & US deep srate swamp CORRUPTION, nothing else.
bitchute.com/video/xVb6gz9rEytC/

Bob L.
Bob L.
2 years ago

I worked with a guy years ago who fit the gambler description given in the first sentence of this article. He couldn’t be talked into quitting when his losses were getting too high, he would keep betting until it hurt enough he had to fold.

D.P.
D.P.
2 years ago

The last statement in this article holds the key…..”gamblers defy logic…” While this article conveys some sense of optimism, we cannot predict the way Putin or any other like-minded despot will act.
That unpredictability is the terror behind the outcome….and there will be no winners. Not Putin, not Ukraine, Not the U.S., China, or the rest of Europe. War is always sloppy….and the words of Coach Tom Landry of the Cowboys, long past still stands…be it a football game or a waged war….”anyone can win at any time….” The danger lies in the fact that Putin, if pushed into the proverbial corner, is just the kind of logic defying gambler the world could do without. Time alone will tell, and in the end someone will have to pick up the pieces…..our recent history as a nation says we will be the ones who foot the bill for clean-up……even if we remain distant from the fray. So, dear friends…..keep your hats on…..the rough ride is yet to come.

Gordon Eckhardt
Gordon Eckhardt
2 years ago

This article did not address the China factor. That is a big deal. The article was good for the single perspective it addressed. But being so one sided diminished the article usefulness.

Divinasenia Terrasi
Divinasenia Terrasi
2 years ago

Readers: You may want to watch this. The truth about Ukraine by the brilliant scholar and author, Cynthia Chung and Mel K. rumble.com/vxwceh-mel-k-and-author-cynthia-chung.html?fbclid=IwAR3BzNipB4S3-vgrV2rosnTwYLc-CloDVxLFL730lPWWidn9ox7phgIzsxo

Barb304
Barb304
2 years ago

Putin is another a$$hole who needs to be taken down.

Divinasenia Terrasi
Divinasenia Terrasi
2 years ago

Anything that the evil Demoncrats support and propagandize, be wary.

Paul Davis
Paul Davis
2 years ago

Neutralize Putin and his cohorts in nations blindly supporting him may come to their senses

Texas Resister 64
Texas Resister 64
2 years ago

The misnomer is “spirit de corps” which jams together English and Latin/French awkwardly. In ROTC many decades ago I learned the Army says espirit de corps to refer to morale.

Demeter
Demeter
2 years ago

This is full of it. Try getting out of the propaganda bath. Put Biden in wherever you mention Putin, and you’ll have something real and truthful.

old silk
old silk
2 years ago

This article reminds me of old cold war era pentagon propaganda, and it is under campaign news.

Virginia Walcott
Virginia Walcott
2 years ago

You are so off the mark. WATCH OLIVER STONE’S UKRAINE ON FIRE AND LEARN HISTORY, THEN WATCH RET. COL. MACGREGOR’S REMARKS OF LATE.

Donnie G
Donnie G
2 years ago

You are RINO Deep State shills. I’m done eith AMAC. Adios.

Donnie G
Donnie G
2 years ago

Catering to deep state mafia, lifetime politician crime families and Ukranian neoNazis killing their own people. Shame on you, AMAC.

Casey C Matt
Casey C Matt
2 years ago

Im really sorry that AMAC is also following the media/corporate/political narrative……but almost all of this article is specious. First how is it gambling when Putin has already won? Ukraine will fall and no as todays news proves Zelinsky is no democracy deity. As for Russia having no friends. What about China, India, Brazil…..numerous other countries that are backing or at least not posing to denounce or embargo Russia? Thats a LOT of friends.
I love America but in this instance it is we that are largely friendless. The UK remains our lapdog but Germany is not going through with oil embargos……France either nor Italy.

Who again has the least friends in this idiotic Ukraine fervor campaign?

Robert
Robert
2 years ago

Please somebody advise me as to where I can get my yellow and blue bumper sticker and Ukrainian flag to put on my garage.

William Kilgore
William Kilgore
2 years ago

I can get this kind of propaganda from ARRP and is why I joined, I thought, you folks at AMAC! I thought AMAC had conservative patriotic values, always seeking individual research for truth!

Samuel
Samuel
2 years ago

… this contradicts what we’re hearing from the mainstream media:
 
wnd.com/2022/03/defense-expert-spots-massive-issue-russia-trucks-indicates-entire-wars-change/
 
This implies Russia’s invasion was impromptu; something the Russians reacted to, spur of the moment; save who may. No prewar inspections, no readiness assessments, no real strategy, these observations suggest invasion of Ukraine wasn’t conceived much in advance.

Mush less even studied.
 
Putin’s anything but a general. He knows little of military operations, tactics or strategy. Like Donald Rumsfeld and George Bush, “… going to war with the army he has,” trying to figure it out along the way, he doesn’t really know what he’s doing.
 
Evidence suggests Putin was baited. Something exogenous (e.g., Zelenskyy) spooked Putin, and he knee jerked, invading Ukraine well before he was ready to.
 
Rumors Bejing-Biden surreptitiously has American boots already on the ground, that we’ve already taken heavy casualties, we are safe to assume we are definitely not getting the straight scoop what’s really going on with the Russo-Ukraine War —

Brian
Brian
2 years ago

I guess I don’t understand what this highly speculative piece of wishful thinking is supposed to accomplish. Unlike the mainstream media, AMAC is directly dependent on it’s members (or is it?) for funding and clearly it’s members are not buying what AMAC is selling (figuratively). If this trend continues, I will withdraw my support.

Willie Ryan
Willie Ryan
2 years ago

This would not be going on if Trump was president.I believe we are going to be attacked and it will be worse than 9-11.Watch out New York they have you on there number one list.

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