AMAC EXCLUSIVE
As Pennsylvanians cast their ballots in the state’s primaries on April 23, perhaps the most intriguing political development in the Keystone State was not the winners and losers from Tuesday’s contests, but rather President Joe Biden’s highly unusual three-day swing through the state in the week leading up to primary day.
As a general rule, presidents rarely spend so much time at once in one state during an election year – particularly a president like Biden who spends most of his time cloistered in the White House or at his beach house in Delaware. That Biden’s handlers felt the need to ferry him around Pennsylvania suggests that the Biden campaign rightly has serious concerns about their prospects this November if they lose there.
Biden traveled to Scranton, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia during the trip, at each stop attempting to portray himself as the candidate most concerned with “kitchen table issues” this election. In Scranton, where the president often says he grew up (in reality his family moved away when he was 10) Biden blamed former President Donald Trump for pandemic job losses and alleged that the 2017 Trump tax cuts only benefitted the wealthy. (IRS tax data actually shows the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act benefitted middle and working-class Americans most.)
But as much as Biden hoped to make Trump out to be the bad guy for Pennsylvanians, it is Biden’s policies which have wreaked havoc on the state over the last four years. In March, Pennsylvania’s Democrat governor even took the unusual step of criticizing Biden’s ban on natural gas exports, which play a vital role in Pennsylvania’s economy.
It was also in Pennsylvania where Biden for the first time unveiled his “Bidenomics” messaging, something that has backfired enormously with voters. His promises of a blue-collar boom have proven to be a fantasy in the old industrial parts of the state, while new red tape on oil, natural gas, and coal production have led to mass layoffs. Biden’s electric vehicle mandate is also a major liability in any oil state, including Pennsylvania.
Given Biden’s poll numbers in Pennsylvania and the brewing voter anger over his policies, it’s easy to see why the president and his team are concerned. The president has just a 39 percent approval rating in the Keystone State according to the latest RealClearPolitics average, just below his 40 percent approval rating nationwide.
Biden holds just the slightest of edges over Trump in the RealClearPolitics Pennsylvania average, 46.7 percent to 46.3 percent. But Trump now leads Biden in some state polls, including a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey fielded from April 8 to 13.
Moreover, back in 2020, Biden carried a 4.7-point polling lead with him into Election Day and managed to secure the state by 1.2 points. With six months to go, the state is a true toss up, and there is no room for error.
Looking at the electoral map, Biden’s path to a second term narrows dramatically without Pennsylvania, which he officially won by just over 80,000 votes in 2020 following controversy over changes to state election laws.
According to most analysts, there are seven truly competitive states this election: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, which account for a combined 93 electoral votes. According to the RealClearPolitics averages, Trump currently leads in all of those states except for Michigan, where he trails by two, and Pennsylvania, where it is a virtual tie. Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes make it the largest swing state and thus one of the biggest prizes on election night.
Trump’s strong poll numbers in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin give him good reason to believe he can still win the election even without Michigan and Pennsylvania. But for Biden, losing the Keystone State shrinks the map immensely.
Without Pennsylvania, Biden will almost certainly need to win either North Carolina or Georgia, where he currently trails Trump by five and four points, respectively. If Trump takes Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, he wins.
Assuming Biden does not win Pennsylvania and wins one of North Carolina or Georgia, as well as Michigan (the only swing state where he current leads) he must also then win either the other of North Carolina/Georgia or two of three in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, where he trails by two, five, and five points, respectively. If Biden does not win Michigan, he must then win three of four in Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.
Any of those scenarios would require Biden to win multiple states where he currently trails by at least four points, an outcome that seems unlikely while losing Pennsylvania. The state-level polls will almost certainly change between now and Election Day. But the reality is that Trump may have more electoral wiggle room than Biden – something which was not true at this time in 2020 or 2016.
Moreover, Biden is in the unenviable position of trying to shift public perception of him while being physically and mentally unable to run a vigorous campaign. From a strategic standpoint, betting the house on Pennsylvania might be the Biden team’s best – and only – option.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @ShaneHarris513.
