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Arizona’s Senate Race Tightens – National Turn?

Posted on Tuesday, October 6, 2020
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by AMAC, Robert B. Charles
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senateArizona may not be America’s bell weather, but something strange is afoot.  To understand it – and what it means for the nation – consider two facts. Tough races, Olympic mile to US Senate, come down to kick.  Second, history shows Arizona hides undecided voters.  Together, these facts make Arizona’s Senate race – and our national cycle – tighter than most recognize.

Consider Arizona’s Senate race, between Republican fighter pilot Martha McSally and Democrat Shuttle astronaut Mark Kelly.  On September 3, barely a month ago, McSally trailed Kelly by 17 points.  The race looked over.  See, https://www.salon.com/2020/09/03/martha-mcsally-down-17-points-in-new-fox-news-poll-showing-democrats-surging-in-key-states/.  But as Yogi Berra said: “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

Like runners entering the final turn, or a fighter pilot pulling hard for the bead on a bogie, strange things happen in final moments. As of September 30, McSally was suddenly within six points, posting an 11-point gain over 27 days.  One poll put her within margin of error, down by two. See, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html; https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/709972/mcsally-internal-poll-finds-her-within-margin-of-error?unlock=P6KTFK08NIONE6QJ.

Then, adding lift to McSally’s race on October 4, three former Apollo astronauts – two of whom went to the moon – suddenly endorsed McSally, panning Kelly’s leftist agenda.  See, https://www.redstate.com/beccalower/2020/10/03/astronauts-endorse-martha-mcsally-senate-mark-kelly/. That is going to give her a boost.  Expect afterburners to light up.  If three legendary astronauts are not willing to support another astronaut, the race requires a relook.

Then turn to history, since the old standby sometimes harbors untapped wisdom.  What might 2016 polls from Arizona tell us about 2020, if anything?  True, history never repeats exactly.  That said, hints hide in numbers few bother to review.  Let us review them.  In the last week of October 2016 – interesting numbers popped in Arizona.

Clinton was ahead of Trump in Arizona as October 29, 43.5 to 42 – roughly the same lead Kelly holds on McSally by internal tracking poll. Then, the strangest turn unfolded.  Either Clinton supporters fell away, or Trump supporters emerged from the woodwork.  Maybe undecideds decided.  Either way, fortunes turned fast.  By November 1, Trump was up 45 to 43.5.  By election day, he was up 47 to 43. Trump won the state 48.1 to 44.6 – and it was over. See, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton-5832.html; https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/arizona-president-clinton-trump.

So, what are the lessons or take-aways for the final stretch in Arizona – and the Nation? First, strange things happen down the stretch.  Ask Olympic miler John Landy, who lost “The Miracle Mile” in 1954 to Roger Bannister – in a final turn.  Landy led the entire race, by ten yards in the third lap of four.  But in a giant burst, Bannister overtook him in the fourth – never looked back.  Endorsements and endorphins, the will to win and being sure-footed count in the kick.

Second, Arizona – and by appearances the whole Nation – held a secret in 2016.  Democrat support was soft, their candidate weak, and commitment to turnout weaker; or the Republican was stronger than met the eye, private support stronger than public polls; or undecided voters tipped hard Republican – not enamored with a leftist agenda – in the final week.  Regardless, polls were wrong – and momentum edged out the early leader.  Arizona 2020 looks similar.

Finally, if Arizona is not a bell weather, the state offers insights into the national election cycle.  If McSally pulls out a win, other Senate races may end Republican, including Maine, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa, Montana, Georgia, Alabama, and Michigan. Moreover, swing states where Trump appears to be trailing, may prove reservoirs of soft Democrat support, hidden Republican turnout, or late-breaking undecideds that tip Trump.

Of course, politics is a fickle business – as much room to be wrong as right.  Olympic favorites fade as often as win and win as often as fade.  History too is a wandering minstrel, offering inspiration and curiously disappearing, seeming to predict the future but not always.

Still, something strange is happening in Arizona – and nationally. Many Republicans are gaining, as we enter the final turn.  The test will be who lights the afterburners, wins the kick, stays the course.  Less than 30 days and counting now.

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Trump's Girl
Trump's Girl
3 years ago

The Silent Majority will speak loud and clear on Election Day! Have faith in the American people to choose good over evil, growth over stagnation, right over wrong. If we’ve learned anything from 2016, it’s that the polls are wrong, so very wrong.

Fletcher Miller
Fletcher Miller
3 years ago

The correct word is “bellwether”, not “bell weather”.

Pat Dilling
Pat Dilling
3 years ago

Arizona is also one of the preferred states that frustrated California conservatives choose to relocate.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
3 years ago

I say national portend alone, & add lockdowns & masking for politics for power 2 (Blue States)

Michael l Javick
Michael l Javick
3 years ago

Trump in an historic re-election LANDSLIDE !

James
James
3 years ago

Fake news means fake polls! The democrat gun grabbers control both! However, republicans and conservatives should take nothing for granted. Get out and vote!

Morty Tupperman
Morty Tupperman
3 years ago

God willing, Trump and Republicans will triumph on November 3.

Texas Resister 64
Texas Resister 64
3 years ago

Polls totally suck these days. I mean the vacuum of reality in most pollsters makes me always discount them by 5 to 10 points. Why? Because for many Trump supporters, if there is a pollster on caller-ID, they don’t answer the phone, or hang up, or (fearing the consequence if they show up on some list as a Trumpster) tell them they are ferocious supporters of the left. That’s what we would do if we ever had that, and I know there are thousands like us in the hinterland. God help us all if Trump loses or the Senate flips.

Terry E Parrett
Terry E Parrett
3 years ago

What if we see a lot of surprises this year … Personally, I feel voters are exasperated with the MSM trying to control them, suppress voting with fake polls, and the entire concept of keeping us in cages (homes) like a bunch of pet birds (stay in your cage we know what’s best for you, we will tell you when you can come out and live again) with tiny brains that cannot see through the constant barrage of lies, manipulation and misrepresentation of President Trump. I will always remember something my dad said to me when I was very young, “When so many people go to such great lengths to convince you to believe the opposite of what you see and hear, it is because they want to control you, do the opposite, live your own life make your own decisions and your life will be much better for you and your family.”

Fred J Noel
Fred J Noel
3 years ago

In 2018 McSally was declared the winner with a comfortable lead. Then three weeks later she lost. I firmly believe the was fraud with the mail-in ballots. There didn’t seem to be a very strong chain of custody for mail-in ballots. I think it took Democratic operatives three weeks to sneak in enough harvested and fraudulent ballots to change the outcome. Now the Democrats want to take it nation wide.

Michael
Michael
3 years ago

The Senate and America doesn’t need a little turncoat like Kelly in there he is useless him and his wife.

Myrna
Myrna
3 years ago

Thank you for this encouraging message.

Jimbo
Jimbo
3 years ago

I’m sending McSally my third donation and proud to do it!
She is a good Conservative who unlike Kelly has no ties to China!
We do not need Kelly anywhere in our government !

Dr Timothy-Allen Albertson
Dr Timothy-Allen Albertson
3 years ago

03 November will be a GOP massacre of the Democrat/nazi/commies.

John A. Fallon
John A. Fallon
3 years ago

We need the full SCOTUS NOW!! as it is now they will accomplish nothing, a new session and a new beginning for justice in AMERICA, time to CONFIRM and save AMERICA, quit worrying about what the left will say, they will NOT be around much longer. VOTE TRUMP!! MAGA,KAF,KAH,KAG!!!!!

GKP
GKP
3 years ago

McSally/ Yogi Berra/ and Donald J. Trump=Winners// It will be over when its over and nothing can change that fact// GO Trumpster and Republicans/

Deborah McDermott
Deborah McDermott
3 years ago

Go Trump 2020! We need to keep the Senate and win back the House! Vote Republicans across the board!

Wayne Sluiter
Wayne Sluiter
3 years ago

Yes, but wan`t the king of democrats in republican clothes, John McCain, from Arizonia?

Mandy
Mandy
3 years ago

Perhaps many read the article about Kelly traveling to Communist China and then suddenly worth $27 million.Article on PJ media titled “Gun-Grabbing Grifter Mark Kelly Is Yet Another Democrat in Bed With the Chinese Communist Party” tells the story. Shocking and disturbing of those beholden to Communist China.

Phil Hammersley
Phil Hammersley
3 years ago

Gun-grabber Kelly uses his wife’s shooting to push gun control. Nobody ever mentions the Republican judge who was KILLED by the shooter or the fact that the shooter’s mother was a Democrat bureaucrat!

JohnH
JohnH
3 years ago

Trump did not present any future plans at 1st debate with Biden & came across as arrogant most of the night. I think this hurt Republican party & that majority of people do not want President party to have control over both House/Senate. Trump is very impulsive & needs the checks & balances in Washington , so that Americans have a say in how America should operate.

michael j murphy
michael j murphy
3 years ago

AN OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF AMERICANS ARE FED UP WITH THE DEMOCRATS AND ALL THEIR CRAP.THEY HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF DEMOCRATS AND FAKE/FRAUD NEWS.

JohnH
JohnH
3 years ago

Today, Trump tweeted he has instructed his people to end stimulus talks until after he wins election. Why would he do this now when he will most likely lose votes from the people & small businesses that are counting on this to survive (stock market dropping already on this tweet). My opinion, the stimulus bill should be decided by the Legislative Branch & not the Executive Branch.

JohnH
JohnH
3 years ago

I have bad feeling about Trump tweet today to end work on Stimulus Bill until after he wins election. I wonder if he really wants to win election because this nation is facing many major problems that Trump did not have to deal with when he took over. Does he really want to win when he will not concede election if he does not win & not this impulsive decision that will hurt many out of work Americans & how many small businesses will close up to never open again. I ask Mr. Trump, why do this today??

GunRunner
GunRunner
3 years ago

Well, hopefully the good people of Arizona learned their lesson with McCain, and will vote for a REAL Republican this time! RIP, Mr. McCain, but, honestly? I’m kinda relieved you aren’t running anymore…

Jeanette Fenton
Jeanette Fenton
3 years ago

I’m most worried about the younger voters who have received so much “socializing” in schools and in the media. I hope they recognize the difference and go for Keeping America Great, not Socialist!

JohnH
JohnH
3 years ago

It is obvious that this board is mainly behind Trump no matter what he does. But I would like to ask you a serious question: Would you rather have taken over as President in 2016 or 2020? Which time would be the tougher shoes to fill ???

GT Patriot
GT Patriot
3 years ago

Tonight’s latest CNN poll shows Biden ahead of Trump by 16 %. I say Trump has him right where he wants him. CNN remarkably continues to
believe their 2016 techniques and methods work. When you combine this with their daily anti -Trump blabber, I am amazed that CNN cannot
seem to learn anything. When you hit your head against a wall a thousand times, don’t you learn to stop ?

Gunny Joe
Gunny Joe
3 years ago

The man won’t say his name will not respect the Constitution, he is a gun grabber, will vote right down party lines. Most of all will not respect President Trump.
To list a few of his views, Red Flag Laws are good, wants a federal back ground check, will limit the type of guns we can buy, is right there with biden and orock we will take your guns is you don’t turn them in. Thinks roe v wade should be the law of the land, could go on but do not want you bored. All in the grand state of Arizona, this is a snake in your rock lawn, (yes know bout that was stationed in Yuma for a year back in the mid 70’s). Don’t let this man fool you Vote Red! MEGA 2.0!!!!

mike
mike
3 years ago

I/we dont need another grifter is our senate. We dont want outiside influence and money from the democrats ,we do not want ‘smelly” kelly. We dont want our 2nd amendment righst besmirched by kelly and finally martha produces for us, She is low key and maybe not flashy or blatant but she is for us. Vote for martha and bounce kelly for good.

Steven Meisels
Steven Meisels
3 years ago

Keep on seeing and hearing that the senior citizens are abandoning President Trump. Democrats are scaring them that President Trump will be taking away their social security, medicare, etc. etc. It may be BS about the loss of support. However, need a high profile senior to debunk this on the national stage.

Debra Reynolds
Debra Reynolds
3 years ago

Good article, thanks! We can all use some hope.
One note though–it’s “bellwether” not “bell weather”.
An archaic term which refers to a sheep (wether is castrated ram) who wears a bell so the shepherd knows the whereabouts of the flock.

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
3 years ago

Either “The State” is US or all Freedoms have been LOST!  I spent over 10 years in the Military.  To this day, my STANCE has been and is: “I will fight to the death for my Country BUT never ask me to love my Government!”  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
3 years ago

Excellent Article!  We are truly blessed in having President Donald Trump leading this Movement!  We need to develop true followers ready to continue this Movement in the event of tragedy.  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
3 years ago

Because of the traitor Paul Ryan and the RINO’s, President only had a partial/sometimes majority!  We AMERICANS need to give OUR President a TRUE Majority in 2020!!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
3 years ago

If we all get out and VOTE, YES we, the true AMERICAN Citizens CAN win back the House and hold the Senate!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
3 years ago

Watching the recaps of the debate shows the Millennial Generation to be extremely scarry!  The men are mostly a bunch of wimps with no idea that they become responsible for themselves some day!  The women are scared they may actually find a man!  And, they are ground so deep in the terminal disaster called Socialism they cannot be rational!  They NEED HELP!  Eliminate the NEA and the AFT and make all Children either be home-schooled or go to Charter Schools!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
3 years ago

First Remove every DemocRat (RED), then we can eliminate all RINO’s and “old line” Republicans.  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

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