America’s Energy Future at Stake in 2024 Election

The rise of new technologies like artificial intelligence is further straining a U.S. electric grid that is already being tested to its limits. If Democrats win another four years in the White House and control of Congress, their fantasy of a “green revolution” could push the grid past its breaking point have drastic consequences for everyday Americans.

As The New York Times reported earlier this year, peak demand during the summer months “is projected to grow by 38,000 megawatts nationwide in the next five years… which is like adding another California to the grid.” Overall, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) estimates that an additional 90 Gigawatts (or 90 billion Watts) will be required to power the economy by 2030, representing a 10 percent increase over the next six years. That amount is enough to power more than 75 million homes, but most of it will be going to data centers necessary for a modern economy that is increasingly online.

Some specialists believe that even NERC’s lofty estimate is too low. Last month, Texas’s grid operator made a significant adjustment to its projections, and now estimates that the state will need 150 Gigawatts by 2030 – nearly double the amount it currently consumes.

At the same time, however, the Biden administration has waged all-out war on the American energy sector over the past four years, working to shut down traditional power plants while so-called “green” energy companies have failed to deliver on promises to replace them with renewables.

According to a Biden EPA rule out earlier this year, coal and natural gas-fired power plants will be forced to either divert millions of dollars to “carbon capture” technologies by 2032 or shut down entirely. Carbon capture methods are notably expensive and difficult to implement, in addition to lingering questions about their actual effectiveness in reducing emissions.

Jeff Holmstead, former director of the EPA air office in the Bush administration, has also pointed out that there is not “a single commercial-scale gas-fired power plant anywhere in the U.S. — or as far as I know, anywhere in the world — that uses [carbon capture technology] to control its emissions.” Yet now the Biden administration expects every U.S. power plant to comply with its requirements in just eight years.

In addition, capturing emissions requires power plants to divert nearly one quarter of the electricity they generate to that task, making it more difficult for plants to keep up with demand while increasing costs for consumers.

Many power plants will likely close entirely as a result of this policy. According to PJM Interconnection, one of the largest regional power transmitters in the Northeast United States, “More than 20 percent of installed capacity in the region may retire by 2030, and new capacity additions may not be able to keep pace.”

An endless sea of red tape from the Biden administration is also hampering new energy projects. American Clean Power reports that 2.6 million MW of generation are currently in limbo, waiting an average of five years to connect, with the potential for even longer delays, highlighting the significant impact of the current system.

One example of extreme delay is the ongoing construction of a new series of transmission lines between Boardman, Oregon, and Boise, Idaho. Initially estimated at $1.5-$1.7B, the project’s cost has significantly inflated primarily due to $220 million in permitting costs.

Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has also reported that a major U.S. military base near Anchorage, Alaska, is now discussing importing energy from Canada because the base has been unable to get enough energy from U.S. suppliers due to permitting backlogs.

For everyday Americans, the most severe risk from energy shortages is blackouts, particularly during the hot summer months. The 2024 Summer Reliability Assessment from NERC found that nearly half the country was at risk of blackouts this summer.

As a sign of just how much government actions affect the ability of power companies to keep the lights – and the air conditioning – on, NERC has added a new “energy policy” category to its risk profile for individual states and the country. As NERC emphasized, lack of coordination between Congress, regulatory agencies, and the power industry has led to heightened risk of blackouts.

Beyond the dangers to individual households, the entire U.S. economy faces broader risks from energy shortages if companies believe that they may no longer be able to effectively do business in the United States due to poor energy policy. Former President Donald Trump succeeded in bringing many companies’ operations back to American shores, but keeping them here will require assurances that they will have the electricity they need. According to a recent survey by the National Association of Manufacturers, 72.4 percent of respondents in the manufacturing industry said the length and complexity of the current energy permitting process was affecting their investment decisions.

Even with Joe Biden now off the presidential ticket, his vice president, Kamala Harris, looks poised to continue implementing a similar energy agenda should she become the Democrat nominee and win four more years in office. As a result, when Americans head to the ballot box this November, they may well be voting on whether or not to keep the lights on and keep American companies on American shores.

Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.