Election Coverage / Government Watch / Politics

Poll Proved Early Indicator of Republicans’ “Second Wind”

AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris

Republicans

After narratives of a “Democratic resurgence” dominated headlines in August and September, Republicans are now heading into the final weeks of the fall campaign on strong footing to regain control of both chambers of Congress. The emergence of this “second wind” for Republicans appears to have been detected early by a poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group for AMAC last month (covered extensively by AMAC Newsline) which outlined the contours of what the prophesized Red Wave might look like.

A number of key findings from the poll – which surveyed 1,078 likely voters from September 21-26 – suggested that Democrats were in far more trouble than optimistic headlines were indicating.

For instance, the poll found that a majority of voters – 51.5 percent – said Biden cares “much less” about the middle class than prior presidents. That number includes 21.7 percent of Democrats and, crucially, 54.7 percent of Independents. Just 23.7 percent of Independents said Biden cares “much more” about the middle class than prior presidents.

As AMAC Newsline noted, those results indicate a growing “empathy gap” that completely undermines Biden’s branding of himself as “Middle Class Joe” and an “everyman” president. That’s bad news for Democrats down ballot who are associated with Biden and his policies.

Despite Democrats believing that a slight reduction in sky-high gas prices, low unemployment, and the Russia-Ukraine war would be the party’s saving grace on the economy, the AMAC/Trafalgar poll suggested that voters were still deeply angry about the country’s financial state, and overwhelmingly blamed Biden. Just 6.7 percent of respondents blamed the Russian invasion of Ukraine for inflation – a narrative the Biden administration has desperately tried to sell for months. When asked which of several factors was “most responsible” for inflation, a majority (52.1 percent) selected “Biden administration,” compared to just 15.4 percent who said “Trump administration” (another line constantly pushed by the White House).

Now, as inflation continues to sit near record highs and gas prices begin to tick back up in spite of Biden’s ploy to recklessly empty the country’s strategic oil reserves in hopes of saving Democrats’ election chances, voters are only more likely to take their frustration out on Democratic candidates.

On crime, which polls consistently show is another top issue for voters this fall, Biden and liberal policies also received poor marks. In total, 55.4 percent of respondents said rising violent crime is primarily a result of either lenient prosecutors, the Biden administration, lack of police presence, or immigration. Given the Biden administration’s failures on immigration, Democrats’ association with the “Defund the Police” movement, and the rise of far-left prosecutors in many American cities, this mix of answers does not bode well for Biden or his party.

The AMAC/Trafalgar poll also pointed to the re-emergence of education and parents’ rights as critical issues in midterm races. When asked if they “agree with the Biden Administration Education Department’s proposed policy requiring school children to attend mandatory counseling without parental consent if they refuse to use the preferred pronouns of their transgender classmates,” referring to a plan recently outlined by the Biden administration, 82 percent of respondents answered “No.” That figure includes 93.2 percent of Hispanics, 73 percent of Blacks, 68.6 percent of Democrats, and 83.3 percent of Independents. While other issues like the economy and crime have risen to the forefront this year after education featured heavily in contests last year, continuing debate over radical gender ideology and left-wing indoctrination in classrooms is clearly still a major concern for voters and a winning issue for conservatives.

On several other issues, Biden and Democrats were underwater as well. 51.4 percent said the Biden administration has “crossed an important ethical line” in pursuing political opponents – including 54.4 percent of Independents. 53.2 percent of respondents and 59.2 percent of Independents said they did not approve of Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan. 86.8 percent of Republicans, 61.4 percent of Independents, and a notable 28.1 percent of Democrats (59.9 percent overall) said they were “not comfortable” with the increase of federal involvement and intervention in their daily lives under the Biden administration. And 54.8 percent of respondents, including 20.1 percent of Democrats and 55.5 percent of Independents, said things have gotten worse for senior citizens under Biden.

On all of these issues, the AMAC/Trafalgar poll also found that Democrats have serious problems with minority voters – something mainstream outlets are only now beginning to pick up on. Notably, Democrats appear to be in freefall among Latinos, with the group expressing much more frustration than the overall sample with Biden’s policies. 61 percent of Latinos said the administration cares “much less” about the middle class than prior administrations, compared to 51.5 percent overall. On student loans, Hispanics disapproved of Biden’s debt forgiveness plan by a margin of 70.9 percent to 29.1 percent, compared to 53.2 percent and 40.3 percent overall. Latino voters also blamed Biden more than any other group for inflation and were more disapproving of Biden’s perceived breach of “ethical lines” in pursuing political opponents.

The poll also found some cracks in Democratic support among Black voters. Although Biden won nearly 90 percent of the Black vote in 2020, 20 percent of Blacks surveyed said that the President cares “much less” about the middle class than prior administrations. 25.7 percent said Biden was “most responsible” for inflation, while 29.4 percent said they were “not comfortable” with the increase in federal involvement in their lives under the Biden administration. Taken together, these findings suggest that GOP gains with minority voters will play a critical role in a potential Red Wave.

In the few weeks remaining until Election Day, it will be up to Republican candidates and campaigns to capitalize on Democrat struggles with voters outlined in this poll. How well they fare will likely go a long way toward determining who holds the majority come January.

***

Other coverage of AMAC/Trafalgar poll:

Majority Believe Biden Cares “Much Less” About Middle Class Than Prior Presidents

Biden Plan to Punish Children for Using Wrong “Pronoun” Wildly Unpopular with Voters

Only 6.7 Percent of Voters Buy Biden’s Excuse on Inflation, Despite Massive Administration Propaganda Effort

Democrats in Total Freefall With Latino Voters

Majority Believe Biden Administration Has Crossed “Important Ethical Line” in Targeting Republicans

Voters Blame Liberal Policies for Violent Crime Spike

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @Shane_Harris_.


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Randall L. Beatty
2 months ago

Dems stay as far away from Biden as they can but what they have done to this country it is not just Biden but all there failed policies that they have been doing since they came into power, we need a change before it is to late and we pay the price for decades to come not just us but other generations to come as well. This November we can make a change we need to time to back this country.

Robin W Boyd
3 months ago

Seeing that most polls are liberal biased already, one should think that Progressive Democrats do not have as much support as the polls suggest. Only voting fraud will prevent the alleged red wave because Americans don’t want Socialism.

Hal
3 months ago

To even get the majority liberal/DemocRat leaning news industry to admit the DemocRats is a bit of a surprise. Much of the liberal news media subtly promotes disparaging differences in the body politic because it sells news more profitably for them. And IMO the majority of news media still favors the lib DemocRats largely because they know how out of touch, they are … which makes news more profitable to sell to the public.

Chris
3 months ago

The answer to ALL of this is in Agenda 2030,(used to be called Agenda 21). (un.gov)
If you want to know why all the chaos in this country and the world go read Agenda 2030.

David Millikan
3 months ago

And the DOJ wants ANOTHER $36 MILLION of OUR TAX DOLLARS TO WASTE ON JANUARY 6 WITCH HUNT to drag out their Soap Opera production till 2024 Election instead of ARRESTING and PROSECUTING Hunter biden.
Typical DOUBLE STANDARD as usual for Weaselcrats. DOJ doesn’t arrest and prosecute Weaselcrats. DOJ ONLY ATTACKS and ARREST INNOCENT AMERICANS.

Susan
3 months ago

Thank you for the update and for partnering with Trafalgar. Is Trafalgar sharing this information with other media outlets? Americans want to save our Nation from socialism/communism. With the Biden administration/regime, and those who placed him in office, that’s exactly where they want to take this nation. We must return to One Nation Under God! This is His way: We must follow Jesus and love Him, and love others. No greed and no evil.

bob
3 months ago
Reply to  Susan

No offense Susan, science and technology has usurped your God. Besides, God had no plan for the future. And Jesus was an assclown, let’s admit it. If world affairs had been left up to those two…

Glenn
3 months ago
Reply to  bob

Man oh, man. You must be an extremely sad and vicious person. If all you can do is criticize spiritual belief.

Max
3 months ago
Reply to  bob

You will meet your Creator in the end and account for your Blasphemy.

Sara
3 months ago
Reply to  bob

How dare you call my Jesus an assclown!!!!!!!!! I feel so very sorry for you because one day you will have to stand before Him and answer for this. You have absolutely no understanding of the things of God….which the Bible says that “those who are perishing have no understanding of the things of God because they do not know Him.” You will be spending an eternity without the presence of God. And if you look at evil as it is right now with Gods Spirit still here, I really shudder in pain for you Bob, when there will be no God at all where you are going. AND the reason, we have such a mess in this world is because of US wanting to do our own thing and we push God away. You can see just how “good” a job we have done. Please don’t mock and call my Savior names. God saw that we were all doomed to die in our sins, and sent His Son, Jesus, to die on that cross and to take our place so we could live forever with Him and our loved ones and be free of these evil bodies of ours that love to do wrong and think we are smarter than God. We are all sinners bob, we are born sinners because of one man Adam, who caused sin to enter into this world which included death. But because of one Man, Jesus, we all now have the opportunity to be free of sin and death. (A Christians physical death is a mere door to enter heaven for an eternity) And all we have to do is BELIEVE that Jesus died for OUR sins on that cross and 3 days later he arose from the grave (which proved He was who He said He was) When I and my fellow Christians enter heaven, we will be entering entirely because of what Jesus did, NOT what we do in any way because we can not do anything good enough to appease a Holy, Righteous God….because Jesus already did it all. I pray God opens your eyes and your heart to check into these things I said. It’s all in Gods Holy Word, the Bible. If you have never read the Bible, get you a translation that will be easy for you to understand like the Living Bible. And if you are laughing at me, it’s okay. Just ignore what I said.

Hal
3 months ago
Reply to  bob

I’m sure many if not most DemocRats are shaken by your post because you are expressing to some degree their attitude as well. You better keep watch behind you … not doubt there are a bunch of white uniformed people with cuffs and muffs chasing you!!!

Morbious
3 months ago

We shall soon know, but here in ohio, yard signs are about twenty to one favoring the dems.

Philip Hammersley
3 months ago

Don’t worry, “Marie” Biden says “Let them eat ice cream!”

J. Farley
3 months ago

The Republicans’ chances would improve greatly if that RINO slime-ball Mitt Romney would get off his back side and help Senator Mike Lee in Utah, the good people of Utah need to remember what a low life he is and boot his Ass out when he is up for re-election next time and the RNC, needs to replace his Niece at the top of the RNC, if she can’t persuade him to do so, it’s party treason, that he won’t help.
Make America great again, get rid of Mitt Romney!

Sheila
3 months ago
Reply to  J. Farley

This is the reason why I don’t give a dime to the NRC because of Mitt Romney’s niece.

Sheila
3 months ago
Reply to  Sheila

It should be RNC, not NRC.

J. Farley
3 months ago
Reply to  Sheila

As soon as the election is over, I am going to call the RNC and ask them to remove my name from their contact list. They are good at asking for money, but don’t give a crap about my opinion.
I ran for public office 4 times and was successful 4 times. I must have done something right.
Thanks for your comments!

anna hubert
3 months ago
Reply to  J. Farley

Unfortunately he is one of many

J. Farley
3 months ago
Reply to  anna hubert

Far too many, but if we start cutting them off at the knees, they will change their ways!

jocko
3 months ago

THE libs WILL CHEAT ON THE ELECTIONS AGAIN

johnh
3 months ago
Reply to  jocko

These excuse is getting old with me. I plan to vote in election & believe it will be honest no matter what side wins.

bob
3 months ago
Reply to  jocko

yea, no duh jocko where are you getting your news or do you read, no one cheated in the past election. Trump tried desperately , and the J6 committee put the kabash on that. Do you read real news, watch the J6 committee hearings? I’m with johnh below, ‘the DEMS cheated’ is no longer an excuse, get with a new program buddy, the Republicans let you down, Donald is a pathological cheater, do you not know anything about the man Trump? Christ Jocko, google Donald Trump to see what a loser he is. And Dominion didn’t cheat (again no proof for your conspiracy), just look at the defamation lawsuits Dominion has against people. most people are plain dumb

Sara
3 months ago
Reply to  bob

Why are you on here Bob? You have slammed Jesus, our President Trump and are calling fellow commenters names….so go elsewhere. I still feel sorry for you though.

Boz
3 months ago

Dominion will have a “second wind” of stealing 2022 just like 2020, since NOT one thing has been done about it.

johnh
3 months ago
Reply to  Boz

Where’s the Beef !!!!!!!!!!

bob
3 months ago
Reply to  Boz

Nothing was done to Dominion because there was no wrong doing on Dominions part, think about it for a second… While you’re thinking I have a question. Did your mother name you Boz coz she was reluctant to engage with polysyllabic proper nouns? 

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