Finance / Politics

Fake News: Marketwatch and Drudge Are Wrong, 500,000 Jobs Not Lost in 2018, the Economy Created 2.2 Million Jobs Last Year


You might have noticed some alarmist reporting from Marketwatch and the Drudge Report implying the economy lost 500,000 jobs last year.

“JOB GROWTH REDUCED BY 501,000,” reported Drudge, linking to a Marketwatch report that was headlined, “U.S. created 500,000 fewer jobs since 2018 than previously reported, new figures show.”

But these headlines are quite misleading. It’s fake news.

Overall, the economy created 2.2 million jobs in 2018 if you look at the household survey, which matches any new estimate in the establishment survey that might be derived from routine benchmark adjustments by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to population estimates.

The unemployment data we get every month is based on two surveys, one of households and the other of businesses, to determine who is working and where they are working. As part of those surveys, the Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises their datasets based on more complete information that comes in later.

This is a part of the normal comings and goings of the agency, and it is irresponsible for Marketwatch and Drudge to ring alarm bells when they should know better. These survey revisions do not change whether people have jobs or where they have jobs in the aggregate, it changes the assumptions that are made in the survey, and they certainly do not show job losses.

It is normal for the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ to revise the benchmarks for the non-seasonally adjusted establishment employment survey, modifying the assumed population levels from the initial survey, which then gets finalized the following year and the data smoothed out across the dataset into its reported seasonally adjusted form.

For example, for the March 2018 revision, the preliminary estimate showed the establishment survey had 43,000 more jobs than initially reported, but by the time the survey was finalized, it ended up showing 16,000 fewer jobs than initially reported.

The worst scenario from these standard revisions, assuming the preliminary estimate holds, would be to simply bring the establishment survey more in line with the household survey, both which are really, really good, showing the Trump economy has produced about 5.2 million jobs since Jan. 2017 instead of the 5.7 million initially reported in the establishment survey. Instead of producing 223,000 jobs a month in 2018, it might have instead produced 185,000, but we’ll find out for sure in February when the final number is posted.

Overall, the economy created 2.2 million jobs in 2018 if you look at the household survey, which matches the new estimate in the establishment survey.

That doesn’t mean we lost any jobs and Marketwatch and Drudge’s click-bait headlines to the contrary do their readers’ a disservice.

In fact, 2018 produced the strongest economic growth reported since 2005, and unemployment seen during the Trump administration is the lowest it has been in the past 50 years, and pending a reversal, those are the numbers the American people will be considering as the 2020 presidential cycle nears.

Originally published at Daily Torch.

Reprinted with permission from - Americans for Limited Government - by Rick Manning

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3 years ago

What about the machinations that the BLS goes through whereby it ASSUMES that many people who lost their jobs will start a business and hire a bunch of other unemployed to staff the business? THE BLS uses spurious information to make these predictions.

3 years ago

Thanks for keeping up on the fake news. I believe we will be seeing much more as the election nears, glad I’ve joined this association.

3 years ago

Drudge is an anti Trump qw eer that has the journalistic integrity of the National Enquirer. I might read some of the headlines, but never believe most of the garbage his site displays.

3 years ago

I am afraid that the once dependable Drudge Report has gone to the dark side and now reports more negative than positive news about Trump and his administration. Same thing has happened to FOX NEWS except for the nightly line up of commentators such as Carlson, Hannity and Ingraham. The channel has gradually become CNN lite even having their own version of “Fredo” in Sheppard Smith. No doubt due to the elder Murdoch turning control over to his leftist sons and their wives. What happened to Drudge and the shift to the dark side? I have no idea but the change is palpable. I no longer start my day with Drudge because of the shift.

3 years ago

Fake news must be brought down!

Roger Olsen
3 years ago

2 million of them jobs are people like me flippin’ hamburgers for 8 bux an hour. Pretty soon we’ll ALL be flippin’ each others hamburgers. Yeah, like them jobs are coming back…the greedy just get greedier didn’t anyone learn from the reagan day’s of “trickle down”?….trust in billionairs ?….HA!!!!

Steve Hughes
3 years ago

Can’t figger DRUDGE…yet.
Market Watch has been falling over (not leaning) LEFT for some time now.
I take EVERYTHING that comes outa that MW SWAMP backwater with a BIG grain o’ salt these days…

3 years ago

The Grudge Report fits right in with other fake news outlets. An overwhelming dislike for President Trump sets their agenda. Not that long ago Americans had no choice but to get their news from these fake news manipulators. Now, other news sources are exposing them with a bright light.

Wayne D Peterkin
3 years ago

“those are the numbers the American people will be considering as the 2020 presidential cycle nears.” Change the word “will” to “should”. The sad reality is that a whole lot of Americans won’t pay any attention to these numbers at all and simply accept the propaganda they are fed by the fake news purveyors. Were there any honesty in the media, no Democrat would get elected from anywhere, even in the inner cities where left-wing policies have destroyed those cities.

D Dironualdo
3 years ago

Another scare tactic from the left!! ! They will do anything , say anything !!
Only this time they are deliberately trying to destroy our economy which hurts us all!! Talk about hate!! If they end up destroying our economy who is going to pay for all the feee stuff they are promising?? Not them!!!! People wake up before it’s too late ..

Dale Hammond
3 years ago

That is not only fake news, it is preditated LYING,.and the Dems don’t give a Boulder Dam.

3 years ago

The fake news is becoming a real problem, because most people don’t follow through to see what is fake and what is true. They accept what they read as being truthful, when some of the time it is not. This needs to change, and our government needs to be involved in this problem. The problem is that they will not become involved in this problem.

Greg Russell
3 years ago

In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act. George Orwell

Be careful where you get your news kiddies-if it comes from ABC, CBS, CNN, CNBC, etc., you know before you read it, it`s not the truth.

3 years ago

Lloyd, I agree that we should buy American. But I don’t agree that it’s not hard to do. Every time I purchase things I need, or gift items, I look at the labels and most of the time it’s made in China. I’ll be thrilled to buy more American made goods. They may cost a little more, but they are made better and last much longer. China doesn’t seem to believe in quality control!! I hope our companies come back and manufacture good ole MADE IN AMERICA products!!!!! Trump 2020!! He isn’t trying to line his own pockets, he’s truly trying to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! Let’s all help him in 2020 to keep going!!!

3 years ago

Drudge has some sort of bug up his behind. I started noticing it two yrs ago. I now use whatfinger. They are the successor to drudge, who has run his course.

3 years ago

This garbage needs to be prosecuted for trying to discourage the American People, but We the People know these fake news leftist socialist reporters politicians are just what they try and pull off FAKE lying dogs

Phyllis Armeli
3 years ago

I have noticed many negative news items on the Drudge Report lately about the country and President Trump and his administration. I have gone to his website for many years but no more. There are many others who report fairly. Mr. Drudge, you have changed and not for the better and this latest report about the job loss clearly defines your current position. Farewell!

Edward Jackson
3 years ago

For most of 2019, Matt Drudge has drifted to the ‘dark side’ and accepted the
democrat story line. I noticed this several months ago. He slowly and surely
stopped linking to conservative news sites, and increased his links to CNN,
MSNBC, and the rest of the lying MSM. FoxNews and Market Watch have been
doing more negative reporting of the President, and conservatives by becoming
a mouthpiece repeating what CNN and MSNBC tell them to. Almost all of it has
been lies.

Ed Deering
3 years ago
Reply to  Edward Jackson

absolutely correct, I thought it was a little funky writing maybe there was something there but it was apparent that a different angle was being written and that was the last time I went to the Drudge report.

3 years ago
Reply to  Edward Jackson

Matt Drudge was an anti Trumper from day one.

Lloyd 1954
3 years ago

Buy American! It’s not hard!

Greg Russell
3 years ago
Reply to  Lloyd 1954

Its far from a cut and dried as you seem to think. government motors vehicles are mostly made in Canada and Mexico, yet, idiots scream to "buy American". My Toyota Tacoma was made in the United States, its MUCH better quality than any uaw made, government motors junk, yet, its looked down on by some so called "patriots". Buy American made where its practical, and straightforward, but at the same time, don`t be a sheep, think for yourself. Do NOT get sucked into the globalist, anti-America crap wrapped in an American flag.

Steve Hicks
3 years ago
Reply to  Greg Russell

Hard to buy American when everything is made in China.

Brenda Blunt
3 years ago

The markets are going to be alright. Let the President do what is right. China can start paying USA to do business with. China doesn’t own the USA. Business needs to return to the US. Business should not receive any tax Incentives for doing business out of USA.

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