National Security / Opinion / Politics

Beyond Short Term Problems, Whiz Kid Pollster Sees Even Worse Long-Term Trouble For Democrats

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democratsAs Democrat lawmakers return home for the Easter recess and escape the beltway news bubble, major problems are already apparent for the party of big tech, big media, big corporations, and big government. The short-term issues amount to one of the least successful beginnings of any presidency in the modern era. But even worse for Democrats are the long-term indications: one of the Democrats’ top data scientists is predicting enduring Republican strength in the years ahead – and major setbacks for his own party.

First, the short-term issues: By any objective measure, President Biden has blundered through the first three months of his administration. His inauguration was accompanied by collapsing small business optimism and consumer sentiment, and his early actions did nothing to soothe economic concerns. He eliminated 42,000 jobs on day one by terminating the Keystone XL pipeline. He rejoined the Paris Climate Accord, which does nothing for the environment but will send millions of American jobs to China. Mr. Biden then finished January by siding with teachers’ unions over parents to keep America’s children out of school. In February, the Democrats failed to impeach President Trump for a second time, squandering any bipartisan goodwill that might have existed for the new president. The Biden administration then provoked a major humanitarian crisis on the southern border, which is getting worse by the day. Having dismantled the Trump administration’s proven border security measures, the Biden administration is now spending $86 million to put illegal migrants up in American hotels – even while Mr. Biden has imposed harsh travel restrictions on American citizens.

Biden has also returned to the failed foreign policy of the Obama administration. Within weeks, he gave away all the leverage President Trump had painstakingly accumulated against Iran, lifting sanctions in exchange for nothing. He adopted a notably cold posture toward one of America’s top allies, Israel. His negotiators were publicly mocked and humiliated by China on American soil at their recent summit in Anchorage, Alaska. To cap it all off, President Biden announced that he intends to impose the largest tax hike in over half a century in the middle of a pandemic-driven economic downturn.

A series of high-profile scandals have made the outlook even worse for Democrats. President Biden’s son is the subject of a federal investigation concerning money laundering and influence-peddling for hostile foreign powers. At the same time, the Democrat governors of two of the largest states in the union are engulfed in public relations crises of their own. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom is facing a recall petition for his wanton destruction of the state’s economy and way of life through excessive lockdowns even while he flouted COVID lockdowns himself. In New York, Governor Andrew Cuomo is facing a federal investigation after forcing more than 9,000 COVID-infected nursing home residents into assisted living centers and then covering up the more than 15,000 deaths that followed. The New York State Assembly has also initiated an impeachment investigation over numerous allegations of sexual harassment.

After two months, the short-term problems for Democrats are showing no signs of letting up. But as one of the party’s brightest minds recently admitted, their long-term troubles may be even more serious. Top Democrat pollster David Shor sat down with New York Magazine to discuss the outlook for the 2022 House and Senate elections. Shor is by no means a moderate. He is an avowed socialist. But he is also a veteran campaign expert who, at age 20, created an election forecast model for the 2012 Obama re-election campaign that accurately predicted the results within less than 1 percentage point in every state. Shor currently works as a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress. He had this to say about the future of the Democrat Party:

“[E]ven if we have an exceptionally good midterm, the most likely outcome is that we lose one or two Senate seats. And then, going into 2024, we have something like seven or eight Democrats who are in states that are more Republican than the country overall.”

Shor argues that Democrats’ only hope of success lies in radically transforming American democracy:

“Basically, we have this small window right now to pass redistricting reform and create states. And if we don’t use this window, we will almost certainly lose control of the federal government and not be in a position to pass laws again potentially for a decade. In terms of putting numbers on things, I think that if we implemented D.C. and Puerto Rican statehood and passed redistricting reform, that would roughly triple our chance of holding the House in 2022 and roughly the same in the Senate.”

In short, Shor does not think that Democrats can win the 2022 election without rigging it.

It is no surprise that Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer have been frantically trying to ram through Congress a bill known as H.R. 1, the so-called “For the People Act.” The legislation is an 800-page monstrosity that would affect a leftist takeover of federal elections, usurp the constitutional powers of state legislatures, expand voter fraud opportunities, and put unaccountable, unelected bureaucrats in charge of drawing Congressional districts. Shor’s analysis also explains why Biden recently announced his support for reforming the filibuster to allow for passage of H.R. 1.

As for the future of President Trump and the GOP, Shor says:

“I think the Trump era has been very good for the Republican Party, even if they now, momentarily, have to accept this very, very, very thin Democratic trifecta. Because if these coalition changes are durable, the GOP has very rosy long-term prospects for dominating America’s federal institutions.”

These are statements that the Republican establishment and conservatives across the country would do well to listen to and consider. One of the Democrats’ top data scientists has concluded that President Trump set up the GOP for future success, expanded the Republican coalition, and left the Democrats’ hopes dependent on drastic changes to election law. If Republicans in Congress can hold the line against this sweeping radicalism, then 2022 may spell the end of total Democrat control in Washington D.C.

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1 year ago

Excellent article! I would like to read more on this as well. I pray that election integrity can be restored because without that, they will continue to cheat and rig elections so they stay in power. Power and control is what drives them, its very sad. God made us to self govern and if people would just turn back to God, live by his laws, we would be so m much better off. Thanks for writing this!

Robin Mcisaac
1 year ago

If we don’t vote they will vote for us.I’m so disgusted I don’t know what to do but one thing I will always do is vote

Heidi S
1 year ago

This all has been coming for a long time – none of it is a surprise including their plans for massive voter fraud. I’d been “screaming” it particularly on Twitter for over 2 yrs, but people have been passive for a few decades now- allowing gov to grow to a point where it’s seemingly unstoppable.
The Military needs to step in NOW & clean it up!

Roger Freund
1 year ago

As many of you know by now: Figures don’t lie, But liars can figure ????. Roger That !

1 year ago

I don’t think the Republicans have the will, or the cojones to fo against the Democrats. They will squander what Trump but.

1 year ago
Reply to  Jaime

Maybe you’re not paying attention but there is plenty going on among the red states For instance there is The Convention of States (already got 15 committed and more to come) There is also The Precinct Project which helps recruit people at every level..local, county, and state. There is a job out there for every single one of us according to our strengths, time, etc. There is lots of work to be done and we need every Patriotic American to get involved. The life of our country depends on us.

John Lyon
1 year ago

Rigging of elections is here to stay. Learn to live with it.

1 year ago
Reply to  John Lyon

Not true. There is hope. Read my post before this one to learn why and how there is plenty of hope.

1 year ago

Biden’s bumbling and stumbles were anticipated but was is astonishing is how soon he bungled so much.

1 year ago

Excellent article. Very well written and researched. Finally something worth reading.

Sandra Hayley
1 year ago

I pray every day that something drastic will occur to throw the Democrat party into total chaos and finally into oblivion!

1 year ago
Reply to  Sandra Hayley

The way things are looking, your prayers just may be answered and very soon.

Tommy Molnar
1 year ago

After the 2020 so-called election, many on the right are ready to not even vote next time. But that is the worst thing we could do, even if you think your vote doesn’t count. Every Conservative who doesn’t vote is a VOTE for the socialists, pure and simple. Do NOT stay home! You never know – we might get some of this fraudulent voting stuff fixed by then.

1 year ago
Reply to  Tommy Molnar

An abstained vote is one lost for our side and another chalked up for the opposition. Evil triumphs when the good do nothing.

John K
1 year ago
Reply to  Richard

I believe that is what the media wants you to believe! But, after this administrations blunders it should make us more determined to retain our constitution.

1 year ago

If the Democrats get to count the votes, nothing else matters. I 100% believe the 2020 election was rigged and I do not see anything to stop it from happening again.

1 year ago
Reply to  Brian

Absolutely correct! Even with these various “improvements” to the voting laws and rules in various States (IMHO, too little, too late), if vote counting isn’t UNIVERSALLY made MANUAL and PUBLIC, the same old SH*T will keep happening…until the demon-craps have such an unassailable lead, that they just ABOLISH voting completely—probably, by EXECUTIVE ORDER…

1 year ago
Reply to  Brian

That is why the Democrats are pushing H.R.1 as hard as they are. All Shor is pointing out is that his party needs to ensure the passage of H.R.1 to ensure that they are NOT voted out in 2022 or 2024. If H.R.1 is passed, then every election for Congress or the White House will have a pre-determined outcome of a Democrat “win” by a close margin. With the Democrats retaining a permanent lock on on power in Washington, D.C. for decades to come.

Nancy Crawford
1 year ago

I can only hope that ALL Republicans in Congress for once use some backbone or prop up their name-only members to stop this sickening destruction of the United States or we will become un United and stand as independent states to protect the values this country was founded and flourished on! This is why I moved from CA to TX some years ago! I beg you wherever you live, stand up and speak proudly of our heritage! If you can’t , leave. People flee from many parts of the world- they come here because of the promise of freedom and opportunity! Why would you not fight for that?!

Wuna Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Nancy Crawford

You are so correct, Nancy Crawford. You make sense; something not a lot do nowadays. You are concise in saying what you mean. No messing around.

1 year ago
Reply to  Nancy Crawford

Sadly some of those establishment Republicans have been bought and paid for years ago. We need to continue to weed them out of office.

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