Commentary / Coronavirus

Why Should We Believe China’s Coronavirus Statistics?

ChinaHeadlines appeared yesterday afternoon — “US passes China in COVID-19 cases!” Who says? Often it’s the Johns Hopkins map. That site gives its main China source as an aggregator known as DXY. It also notes Worldometers, produced by a Chinese company called Dadax. But is COVID-19 possibly a sensitive issue in China? (Hint: yes). If so, why would anyone believe these sites know the true situation, or could report it if they did?

If you consider the Communist Party to be honest about matters affecting its legitimacy, stop reading. Perhaps switch to these links on reincarnation regulationssubversive Winnie the Pooh, or dangerous jasmine. (Reading about the Great Leap Forward or Tiananmen may prove harder.) For everyone else:

1) We’ve done a terrible job with COVID-19 testing but finally passed 500,000 tests yesterday. With more than four times our population, roughly a 2-month head start, and the great job it supposedly did, China must have at least 2 million test results, probably more. The details of these — symptoms, timing, demographics, recurrence — would be incredibly valuable to the world. Where are they?

2) If I missed them, send an email calling me an idiot (or worse). If not, what we’ve had from DXY for weeks — to its credit — is updates on Chinese “diagnoses” (not “cases”), deaths, and cures. No test numbers. It would be strange for China to have conducted hundreds of thousands or millions of tests and DXY not to report it.

3) What DXY reports is a very serious problem, now fading, in Hubei province. Closing on 68,000 diagnoses and 3200 deaths. The population of Hubei is roughly 60 million. For the entire rest of China, it reports a bit over 14,000 cases and closing on 130 deaths (time of writing). The population of the rest of China is a bit over 1.3 billion. You might see where I’m going here.

4) The first case in Hubei may have been November 17. China can’t be blamed for failing to recognize the situation then — it’s only easy in retrospect. But COVID-19 may have circulated that early. If not, then by December 26. Four weeks later, a quarantine is imposed on cities in Hubei. (Again, if quarantines are easy, many countries have made serious errors.) Millions were said to have left prior to quarantine. Say that’s exaggerated and it’s only hundreds of thousands. The vast majority of those exiting Hubei entirely — say thousands — went elsewhere in China, not other countries.

5) A country handling COVID-19 well is South Korea. An aggressive testing program, effective containment of an outbreak site, and far fewer cases than Germany. South Korea is richer than China. It has less than four percent of the population of China excluding Hubei. Given proximity to Hubei and the enormous population difference, you’d think the rest of China would reasonably have 30 times as many COVID-19 deaths as South Korea and still get credit for it, since South Korea is held up as a model. That’s off by about a factor of 31. The rest of China reports slightly fewer deaths than South Korea.

6) Another quick responder to COVID-19 is Singapore. It is far away from China, though it receives a lot of traffic. Singapore has a population of less than 6 million, closing on 700 cases at time of writing, and 2 deaths. Jiangsu province is closer to Hubei, sees a lot of domestic and global traffic, and is not as rich as Singapore. Hopkins source DXY puts Jiangsu “cases” at 640 and rising slower than Singapore’s. No deaths. The population of Jiangsu is 80 million.

I could illustrate how . . . remarkable numbers are in other provinces, too. If you think that, despite at least a month of uncontrolled movement, the government performed miracles to stop COVID-19 in other provinces, you might believe those numbers. Strangely, though, the same government totally botched the situation in Hubei itself.

Or maybe China’s cases aren’t the same as ours or others. The reason the world doesn’t have the incredibly valuable test data is because tests weren’t conducted for public use. Instead, publicly disclosed diagnoses were made by presentation of symptoms and contact tracing back to Hubei (this is done in many countries). Public case identification through mass testing was not done. And if you don’t have a COVID-19 case, you can’t attribute a death to COVID-19.

How can China hide many COVID-19 cases? Most are mild, most of the rest can easily be deemed flu or pneumonia. How can China hide deaths? About 800,000 people die in China every month. 8,000 “extra” deaths per month due to COVID-19 is a rounding error. (That’s *not* an estimate of the number of deaths.)

China deliberately didn’t measure unemployment correctly for decades; it’s deliberately not measuring COVID-19 correctly now. With international cover provided by other countries struggling with the virus, China will over time revise its numbers. Until then, American journalists, you don’t have to believe a word I’ve written. But could you at least be a bit more thoughtful about this?

Reprinted with Permission from - by - Derek Scissors

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Sonja Woodburn
2 years ago

Where all the dead bodies? US and the world at large.

2 years ago

A gentleman who brought his girlfriend from China to Houston (for asylum) in February, informed me that there were mass graves being dug all over China. He said that China was lying about the deaths, also that this virus was a developing biological weapon that was accidentally transmitted to public by a worker. Those doctors that publicly spoke of it….disappeared. He spoke of mass-graves of tens of thousands from the virus. This story tends to follow the suggested outline of this story…

2 years ago

I so agree!!

2 years ago

I so AGREE!!!

Daniel Kopetski
2 years ago

My wife’s family lives in China and it is much worse than what is being reported. Just crunch the numbers and what they say just doesn’t add up.

Dr. Cissero
2 years ago

This is the reason why no one can trust China. Its the story of Dr. Lee Wenlinand a Chinese doctor who warned the world about this Coronavirus

The first time Doctor Lee spoke of the virus, the Chinese police accused him of spreading rumors on social media, giving him notice that be careful otherwise action will be taken against you.

While the Coronavirus was spreading throughout Wuhan, the local administration was trying to hide the news. Doctor Lee was the first person on social media to warn the world against this virus through a video clip.

The curvature of the ritual is that even Dr. Lee himself died from being a victim of the coronavirus.

Imagine if this Doctor did not warn the world regarding this deadly virus would be.

2 years ago

I still think china developed this virus as a weapon to possibly keep their population down and possibly teach Hong Kong a lesson. It got out some how and is causing havoc all over the world. As in iran the leaders are crazy most of the people are okay but cannot control the governments. If the dems take over here, we will see the same attempts made. NEVER TURN OVER YOUR GUNS !!

2 years ago

The Chi-Coms developed and exported this virus in order to punish the US for the trade sanctions and tarifs imposed by Trump.
Trust them ? I don’t trust my own government. Why should I trust Beijing ?

2 years ago

Stop the insane production of our drugs in China. How did we get to this ? The only thing we have to fear is not fear but ourselves. Any
nation dumb enough to shut down its manufacturing industries so that another country can have them dosen’t deserve to exist.
All we have done in the past 30 years is set ourselves up to be a Chinese protectorate. We have acted as if we want to be the next Tiawan.

Shelley Teal
2 years ago

I agree with Stephen. We can’t trust China. We’ve been foolish all these years letting millions of Chinese to come to our colleges, and stealing while learning our technology. It is high time we bring all our manufacturing back to the United States. No offense meant towards Chinese Americans. As a whole the Chinese people are good, the government and their spy’s are not.Plus we need to bring Jesus back into our schools, our lives and our communities. Jesus is the only one who can stop this virus and cure our atheism in this country.

2 years ago

We have no reason to believe the communist chinese government because, just like our democrat party, THEY ARE COMMUNISTS!!!!! Communists are the worst at lying because their “ends justify their means”. They don’t care how many people die as long as their goal(ultimate and absolute power) is attained.

dino deplorable
2 years ago

Did this happen because china was upset with AMERICA because we refused to put up with their”BULL EXHAUST”.I do not think that this is something that just happened.Someone needs to investigate the p.r.c.

Roger Jockisch
2 years ago

According to the Johns Hopkins University China virus website, between March 1st and the 31st, the United States has confirmed 187,821 new cases of the virus, Italy 103,792, Spain 95,803, Germany 71,649, but China claims only 2,179 new cases. Surely China isn’t lying to us. (snark)

Randy Geiger
2 years ago

I do not believe anything the mainstream media reports positive about Communist China.

Ed LaPinskas
2 years ago

Whose side was Nixon on when he “opened” trade relations with this enemy ? You begin to wonder.

Gunny Joe
2 years ago
Reply to  Ed LaPinskas

And Took US off The Gold Standard!! But weight that is just the tip of the ice burg of what has been done to us! Obama just about and I am not sure that he did not complete the killing shot to the United States Of America. Nixon I am sorry but I voted for him, Obama I am glad I did not drink that cool aid!

2 years ago

If China and Korea had testing capabilities why didn’t they share the information or tests with us? We had to scramble to develop tests.

Ed LaPinskas
2 years ago

Never EVER trust a communist. Or any politician with a ( D ) after their name.

Homer Howell
2 years ago

The chinese solution to the virus was to punish and deny the doctor who informed the chinese government about the virus when first discovered.

2 years ago

POTUS said he talked to Pres. Xi for an hour one night last week, so assume that info was exchanged???? as Trump says great call. Also, saw on the news one day last week that China Red Cross was in Italy helping them (showed about six of them with surgical masks on. The next day in paper, the China red cross said they were astounded that people were still walking around in public………..and last I have seen on their presence in Italy. The US govt. must know what is happening in Italy ??? but never mentioned at briefings.

Keith H
2 years ago

We should Not believe China about anything. They started a BioWar with us. They are the Enemy and can’t be trusted !!! Period. We should not allow China to make or build anything of ours. Bring it all back home. We will make it better than anyone else. Stupid politicians make a fortune with their shady deals with our enemies around the world. Let’s face it politicians are corrupt. Term Limits should be Mandatory!!!!

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