Government Watch / Politics

Senate Control in Play

AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman

Senate

Control of the U.S. Senate, now divided 50-50 by political party, yet run by the Democrats who hold the tie-breaking vice presidency, is very much in play with just less than two months before Election Day.

But the prospects for Republicans, after a brief interval of doubt, are brightening once again, as Democratic claims of a last-minute surge are not being confirmed by new polling and on-the-ground observation.

Nevertheless, very little is certain in a cycle with dramatic events and several unorthodox political candidates.

Those circumstances include a significantly unpopular first-term Democratic president, a “bear” stock market, rising prices of most goods and services, a historic U.S. Supreme Court decision on abortion, chronic problems at the U.S.-Mexican border, controversial major legislation, the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, widespread anti-parent school boards, rising urban crime, and a persisting and expensive war in Ukraine.

Initially, Democrats feared that they could not avoid a negative voter reaction to the Biden administration’s actions and policies in the national mid-term elections. Democratic strategists then inaugurated a series of countermeasures, including passing a trillion-dollar public spending bill, forgiving of hundreds of billions of dollars of college student loans, a pro-choice campaign attacking the recent Supreme Court decision, and numerous hardball ad hominem attacks on 2022 Republican candidates.

All of the above efforts were intended to counter the voter mood accumulating against them, but the only one that appears to be providing a clear boost for Democrats so far is the pro-choice abortion campaign. The misnamed Inflation Reduction Act turned out to be yet another partisan spending bill while wiping out college debt owed by mostly affluent Americans has angered those who have paid off their debt and did not receive the government gift. Poor schools and accelerating urban crime rates persist. So-called smear campaigns are becoming so prevalent they are having little effect in those cases when Republican candidates refuse to be put on the defensive and fight back. However, several GOP challengers are facing well-funded opponents, and are being greatly outspent in the media where they are being attacked.

At the outset of the cycle, it was believed that there were eight competitive races — four with Democratic incumbents (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) and four Republican-held seats (Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania).

At the height of the early GOP red wave optimism, the Democratic Senate races remained in play, and the GOP seats appeared to be less competitive. Then a series of polls appeared that upended conservative optimism, including polls indicating a bit of a surge for President Biden.

The slight surge for the President has held up (although he remains at 55-45 unfavorable), but newer Senate polls indicate Republican Senate incumbents and challengers hold leads or ties in most of the eight races — and that several contests considered “safe” Democratic, including Colorado, Washington state, and Vermont, as well as a “safe” GOP seat (Ohio), are in play.

However, although the newest polls were somewhat reassuring to Republicans, it is important to point out that all twelve senate races remain in various states of play. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains optimistic, especially in U.S. House races, for big GOP gains, but even an optimist like Gingrich warns against the complacency of assuming election outcomes without aggressive GOP campaigning and heavy turnout.

At the campaign level, Democrats are pulling out all the stops to keep their tenuous hold on power at the federal level. They no longer control most state governments and non-urban areas, and the GOP seems on course to even add to its share of governors and state legislators in 2022.

Democrats’ problem is that in spite of having the most campaign funds, and the better get-out-the-vote organization, they are losing base voters at the grass roots level, particularly from the key groups of Hispanic and working-class voters they have depended on in the past.

Many of the Senate races in play involve one or more unorthodox nominees, including Pennsylvania, where both nominees, Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz, defeated conventional rivals; Ohio, where GOP nominee J.D. Vance emerged; Arizona, where Blake Masters won to be on the GOP ballot; Wisconsin, where leftist Democrat Mandela Barnes beat a more traditional liberal; and Georgia, where football legend Herschel Walker is the GOP nominee. Fetterman started off strong, but now seems to be imploding under scrutiny, and after slow starts, Oz, Vance, Masters, and Walker seem to be gaining some momentum.

Now past Labor Day, and with airwaves and mailboxes filled constantly with political advertising, previously undecided voters are paying attention, making up their minds, and in some cases, casting their votes early. The polls, as Election Day draws closer, usually become more accurate — although their recent history has been mixed.

The one big question mark that will probably remain until the night of November 8, however, will be which party will control the U.S. Senate come 2023. With the highest stakes in any mid-term election in memory, the two parties are certain to battle it out to the very end.


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Twyla
2 months ago

Pro Choice means Choices: which CHOICE is most for Civil Rights!
?

I am the Pro-Life choice
Vs
The Pro-Death choice

I can not kill (actions to stop life) my children after birth, why is it even legal to end (sacrifice) their live before birth?

The only difference is “age

Myrna Wade
2 months ago

I wonder if the people who became hysterical about the return of abortion to the states are driven to this by guilt. Media spreads notions such as “abortion was a constitutional right.”
A right to unlimited abortion could have been a law, but it is not.
The unrelenting attacks on President Trump and the failure to stop the harassment of the supreme court justices might seem to be working, but one-sided justice is not popular and (probably) will not continue.

Mario Capparuccini
2 months ago
Reply to  Myrna Wade

Unfortunately, polls show that a majority of Democrats who were polled believed the Supreme Court outlawed abortion in their decision. How these people can be so uninformed and stupid is beyond me.

Dan W.
2 months ago

You are correct. The Supreme Court simply allowed state legislatures to outlaw abortion. The Dems beef is with their states’ legislators not with the Supreme Court.

Garye
2 months ago

Let’s go America, throw the marxist democrat party pretenders out of office at EVERY opportunity.
SAVE Our Country, Protect Our God Given Rights and Freedom!
The marxist democrat party MUST BE EMBARRASSED into a non-existent ,defeated traitor of America!!!
THROW THEM OUT

David Millikan
2 months ago

Add the Weaselcrats allowed 323 TERRORIST in from Afghan with MILLIONS of the ILLEGAL ALIEN TERRORIST INVASION and SWAMP QUEEN pelosi backing it up not IMPEACHING
DICTATOR Beijing biden for ESPIONAGE and TREASON including THREAT to NATIONAL SECURITY and AMERICAN LIVES and LIVELIHOODS.
Now, they are going to ATTACK our ENERGY to INCREASE Fuel Cost before and after Midterm Election.
Best part is Economy cause there is NO ECONOMY. Today Stocks FELL 1,276 pts. Get ready for a Free-fall cause it’s coming.
ALL compliments of DICTATOR Beijing biden and Weaselcrats.

CHRIS B GRODHAUS
2 months ago
Reply to  David Millikan

American majority voted for Democrats. Serve us right. CHRIS

Garye
2 months ago

Or the lying marxist democrat party cheated???
I don’t believe anyone with a vrain voted for basement joebama and the destruction of Our Country!
These failures don’t deserve America , THROW THEM OUT!

J. Farley
2 months ago

The Republicans (the RNC) need to get someone who can get Republican Candidates across this country to get and say on message. The Republicans need to get off the 2020 Election, its done and over with, get off Abortion, only explain how the 10th Amendment works, stay away from the personal atacks, be better that the Democrats.
The Republicans need to talk about the Economy, and how the American dream is being destroyed for millions of Americans, including a large segment of the Seniors. The Republicans need to stay on message about border security, the lack of which is creating a major drug and crime and making America venerable to another 9-11 style terrorist attack. They need to talk about Energy independence that includes all forms of energy. The Republicans need to harp on how to control crime. The Republicans need to point out with specific examples of the double standard and how the Democrats get special treatment for crimes the Republicans get punished for to the full extent of the law. Religous freedom, Freedom of Speech, and Press. The Republicans need to talk about the fundimental right of self-defense and the Right of the People to Keep and Bear Arms.
They need to be brief but concise, don’t ramble and leave time in speaking events to allow time for questions from those who go out of their way to attend the rally.
It amazes me the lack of leadership and falure to comunicate.

PaulE
2 months ago
Reply to  J. Farley

All good points. First off, the GOP leadership needs to actually HAVE a message. Then they have to convey it to the candidates to be delivered in a clear, concise manner. I honestly don’t think the senior GOP leadership does have a message, aside from saying “historically the party out of power usually picks up seats in the midterms” over and over again. I’ve listened to McConnell every time he has graced us with his presence for a minute or two and he is utterly clueless about what is important to the American people. RNC spokespeople are not much better. McCarthy makes a bit more effort, but he is fixated on trying to dance on the head of a pin, so as not to offend anyone on either side of the political spectrum. Which means he says a lot, but conveys little substance or value. McConnell is solely focused on only wanting candidates elected that will support him as Senate Majority Leader until his term is up in 2026.

Honestly with the mess Biden and Democrats have made of the country over the last 20 months, Republican candidates should be able to speak on any topic with an abundance of information and a clarity of message. Instead you see the same hash I and many others see of what is passing as campaign messaging. If I hear one more interview wasted on the candidate saying the GOP will be doing endless congressional hearings on an array of subjects Congress has no power to change (they are all executive branch actions or DOJ prosecutions, if we had a DOJ anymore), I’m just going to shut off the monitors. This should be a lay up of an election for Republicans, instead of a slog shifting from week to week.

I agree with you that given all the ammunition the Democrats have handed to the Republicans over the last 20 months, this shouldn’t even be a contest at this point. Incompetent and clueless GOP leadership is why we aren’t running away with elections in both chambers of Congress.

J. Farley
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

I would like Mitch McConnell to tell me everything he knows; I have a Minute!!!!!!!
McCarthy is better but comes up short. We need someone like Sen. John Kennedy in the Senate that can tell the Dim’s where to go and they look forward to the trip and Rep. Jim Jordan in the house that believes in the rule of Law. There are others but someone to cut the crap and do something for the country.
Thanks, PaulE

Garye
2 months ago
Reply to  J. Farley

McConnell and Mccarthy really have shown no ability or desire to put forth a clear,concise and significant set of Republican priorities.
Amazing how Governor DeSantis can and dies.
Exactly why the Republicans need new people at the top , instead of replaying the same tired posturing.
When we take back Congressional majorities I sure hope we focus on America instead of the tired party politics and wasted dollars of Washington like the marxist democrat party has.

Pete from St Pete
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

I agree that Republican leadership leaves much to be desired, but continually deriding them in print only plays into the hands of the Democrats. How many Democrats do you hear deriding their leaders in public? They vote in congress with whatever crazy scheme their leaders support.

PaulE
2 months ago

So we are supposed to simply bow down and accept the incompetent and corrupt GOP leadership in Congress? That would be both a gutless move and a self-defeating action on our part, if we ever expect to get someone better in those roles and actually get things done.

The mentality that we all have to bow and accept whatever the GOP establishment in leadership deems fit to toss our way is why we get so little done even when Republicans control both chambers of Congress. It’s also why both McConnell and McCarthy fell comfortable enough to basically rely on cruising to victory on a supposed “red wave”, when they’re dooing next to nothing to ensure victory. Basically they need constant pushing and prodding to get most of them to agree to do anything.

Think about if you had an employee that requires non-stop prodding to just get the usual daily tasks done and then always does just a quarter to a half of the tasks. Would you seriously be satisfied with that employee or would you be looking for his or her replacement? Remember, politicians work for US, not the other way around. If they don’t perform, you replace them with someone who will do the job.

Garye
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

Amen, Amen, Amen!

Garye
2 months ago

Pete – Citizens need to hold ALL politicians accountable, the marxist democrats, rinos and even Republicans when their focus is not what’s best for Our Country and Its Citizens.

Morbious
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

I used to smirk at the idea that rinos prefer being in the minority but no more. They dont act like they want to win. This factor is amplified by the last two years events, specifically that should they take majorities they will need to move to undo the terrible damage. Most of all, i believe they’re terrified of being boxed in by the need to impeach. I think they fear this because they believe it will invigorate their opponents and what they most wish for is deal making in the shadows.

Garye
2 months ago
Reply to  J. Farley

J- 100% Correct.
Is it that the Republican can’t or choose not to have a Great message delivered by a Great Representative???
IF they have the will, NOW may be a good time.
What are they waiting for??

LumbeeIndianGirl
2 months ago
Reply to  J. Farley

A stolen Presidential Election cannot be dismissed! If we do, we will never STOP looking back with great regret! Neither will John Roberts! This is a breaking of the Law like none other… there is physical proof, videos, testimonies and trucks bringing ballots by the hundreds of thousands to polling places after hours. HOW can you dismiss this as something to move on from in “dignity?” IF we excuse, and ignore this theft of our highest office, we may as well give them the keys to “everything!” Do you not realize that this will ONLY be the first Election (though I know others have cheated) stolen at this level?! We will never be able to trust another Election outcome. We will be surrendering our freedom, and our Country! It is not a small issue, and cannot be excused! It is a travesty of Justice, Law and Trust…it can never be forgotten! We may as well tear up the Constitution….now.

johnh
2 months ago
Reply to  J. Farley

The Republican party needs to quit bashing their fellow Republicans because they do not vote 100% with the party. And Trump has been bashing almost every one of his party that voted against him at one time or another. Call me a RINO —- but I am still a Republican voter.

Ron Howard
2 months ago

I feel hopeful and optimistic about the GOP retaking the House and the Senate, but really hope that Mitch McConnell is not reelected, or that he will never be Senate Majority Leader again! Regardless, it is up to us, the constituents, to flood the House and Senate with demands for appropriate action! Unfortunately, the Biden Administration can still do a tremendous amount of harm in the 5 months between now and January.

phoenix
2 months ago

I don’t know why, Because ultimately it will make no difference because Its all just one big club (which we are not a part of) But I will feel better when Republicans take the Senate.

I’m for 100% gridlock at the federal level ad infinitum, el Astra, forever.

I want it so stuck that they simply stop showing up and leave us alone.

We really don’t need ANY OF THEM.

Ron Howard
2 months ago
Reply to  phoenix

You don’t win battles by giving up and surrendering!!!

J Rea
2 months ago

When we look at the record of the Biden Harris Schumer Pelosi Team we have to ask how any voter can consider voting to send a Democrat to the House or Senate. On the Economy a failure. On Energy a Failure. The Border a failure. Afganistan a failure. Iran a failure. Unifying the country a failure. Covid a failure. Healthcare costs a failure. Crime a colossal failure. We have had a Congress which would have done better if they did nothing. Their so called successes have killed the economy and fueled inflation and if we reelect Schumer and Pelosi as leaders we will have more of the same. They will spend us into a Recession. We voters need to send a message. FIRE SCHUMER AND FIRE PELOSI. Especially voters in Arizona Nevada Wisconsin Pennsylvania New Hampshire Georgia and North Carolina Your Democrat Senator ( or candidate ) doesnt represent your views and operates as a Biden Rubber Stamp . We need a House and Senate that will stand up to Biden. FIRE SCHUMER AND FIRE PELOSI. Vote out the Democrats and Vote in the.Republican.

Kay
2 months ago

Questionable that it will be a fair election. Some states are going to allow illegal to vote. The communist democrat party will do anything to steal this election.

Marrya
2 months ago
Reply to  Kay

Thank God it’s not a popular vote that wins!

LumbeeIndianGirl
2 months ago
Reply to  Kay

This is so worrisome, Kay. Illegals are raping our system financially! They are getting Food stamps, Welfare checks and Housing assistance, and tutors for their non-English speaking children in our Schools. ALL while working under the table. Then there are the tax forms they fill out with claims for 12 children and the huge refunds they are getting! Only one group has taken the time to do the Math, but Illegals cost us 600 BILLION in Social Services in 2019! We have got to stop this! I do not even know the numbers for how many are collecting Social Security ONLY Americans paid into! And Biden is welcoming them in in droves! HOW is this happening, right under our noses, and Republicans do nothing?! We have got to make our voices heard! I work the Elections in my State, and I am over seeing Illegals who cannot even speak English voting in our Elections!!

johnh
2 months ago
Reply to  Kay

You are already saying this will not be a fair election. Where is your proof & also are you going to vote or talk yourself into staying home election day & whining.

Rik
2 months ago

NO CONGRESSIONAL SEATS ARE IN PLAY! . . . WHY? . . . Because I haven’t seen where ANY Republicans have guaranteed that the Progressively.Communist Democrats AREN’T GOING TO CHEAT & STEAL the Mid-term Elections too! In fact, name ANY Republicans who call out ANY DEMOCRATS AS NOW BEING COMMUNIST? . . . They’re ALL power hungry rats!

Edward
2 months ago

Republicans need to handle abortion issue in a positive/uniform way if they want to win the Senate.

PaulE
2 months ago
Reply to  Edward

Abortion is now back to being a states’s rights issue, which is exactly where it belongs per the Constitution. As such, the best approach for any Republican running for Congress to take is to simply say “Abortion is a state’s rights issue. Therefore the federal government has no business interferring with what is rightly an issue to be decided by each individual state. That is at the heart of what fderalism is all about.”

Garye
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

Would be nice if Republicans used Your text in their campaign ads!

Dan W.
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

A good strategy (but then Lindsey Graham proceeds to introduce legislation in the Senate to limit abortion).

Edward
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

I understand your position on abortion but the majority of people aren’t comfortable with that approach and don’t want a state to say all abortions are prohibited including those that are caused by incest, rape, or life of mother. Republicans need to unite in a common sense middle ground on abortion or lose a large number of female voters.

Jan13
2 months ago

NYS is running scare tactics about abortion, NY, along with other states will allow you to abort your baby. Funny how they don’t want the death penalty for convicted murderers, but are fine with a “ death penalty” for a baby. For me, I look more at what I’m paying for groceries, gas, heat, rent, electric, bigger concerns than abortion.

PaulE
2 months ago
Reply to  Jan13

Why is anyone in NYS state running scared about abortion? Their state constitution already allows for abortion right up to the moment of delivery. If anything, NYS is a poster child for showing the rest of the country what the “progressive movement” really wants when it comes to abortion: Infanticide on demand up to the moment of birth and even afterwards.

Jan13
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

Gov. Hochul is running ads against Lee Zeldin that has him against a woman’s right to choose, also how he and many others of us questioned the 2020 election. Unfortunately in NYS there are many that will see it as NYS banning abortion if he get elected governor. If Hochul wins, I may join the vast number of conservatives leaving, since she doesn’t want us here anyway. She took the playbook of Andy Cuomo, telling New Yorkers not towing the liberal line, that we’re not wanted.

PaulE
2 months ago
Reply to  Jan13

So Hochul runs dishonest ads and we are supposed to jump through hoops to try and disprove the lies her ads contain? Seriously? Lets be honest here and both agree that most Democrat voters are NOT the sharpest tacks in the box. Most don’t know the issues. Most don’t really have any clue who most of the people running for office really are and they certainly have no idea what their public record on various issues may be. In short, the average Democrat voter in the New York, New Jersey, Connecticut area is as uninformed as you can get when it comes politics and issues that impact them on a daily basis. They mostly just reflexively vote for straight line Democrat, if they bother to vote at all.

I live right across the river in the beautiful Peoples Republic of New Jersey and spent nearly 30 years working in NYC. So I am welll aware of the mentality the permeates through the minds of the average Democrat voters of NYS. There is an old adage from Forest Gump that sums up the majority of average Democrat voters. It’s “You can’t fix stupid!” meaning you’re giving them way too much create in the intelligence department. They will vote for whichever person has a (D) after their name, no matter how bad the Democrats have run the city or state into the ground. The best you can hope for in NYS is that the vast majority will be too lazy to vote at all thinking “someone else” will vote on their behalf.

Jan13
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

You’re right on target about how uninformed many voters are, if many do go vote, will just pick the candidate with the D. I’m hoping that many democrats stay home & republicans get to their polling stations. I also hope that there are democrats out there that aren’t too happy with Hochul, & vote for Zeldin.

Garye
2 months ago
Reply to  Jan13

Hochul is a liar and a marxist democrat politician, no surprise here??

Jan13
2 months ago
Reply to  Garye

None whatsoever..66 years living in NY & paying attention to the politics for at least 40+ of them.

Art
2 months ago

Right now the cackling fool who controls the decisive vote is running at her mouth as if everything is a done deal, She has done nothing in her tenure so far except make word salad pronouncements. Please work hard and vote for conservatives. Only then will K.H. do what she does best== sit in a chair and do nothing but write up “help wanted ads.” She may have to change to part time hires because they don’t last long in her environment.

jocko
2 months ago

DON’T WORRY, THE CANCEROUS, ANTI-AMERICAN, LYING CHEAING libs WILL AGAIN CHEAT ON THE ELECTIONS. THERE IS ONLY ONE SURE AND PERMANENT WAY TO STOP them AND IT’S NOT THRU ELECTIONS…………

Sharon Ormsby
2 months ago

However, we lost what should have been a sure win in Alaska! We can’t expect sure wins in any state!

Jan13
2 months ago
Reply to  Sharon Ormsby

Any chance Sarah can run as an independent? I’m surprise that a state like Alaska went that route.

Dan W.
2 months ago
Reply to  Jan13

She is already running in November (with the same two opponents) for the full House term which begins in January 2023.

Patricia A Arsenault
2 months ago

NH is looking good guys/gals. We are hoping for General Bolduc and Karoline Leavitt. I must go vote now! :)

Jan13
2 months ago

Keeping fingers crossed. Good luck NH.

Mary
2 months ago

We have a big problem with voting in this country. There are the complacent “can’t talk politics” types who want to live here, but won’t support our beautiful USA. The leftist liberal types who will go to any length to sabotage elections. *Then there are the rest of us hard working citizens who love this USA, want those who WE elected to work FOR us, keep our police on duty to control crime, instill values again in our schools, and finally bring back the integrity and respect through our Lord that we do desperately need.*

Hope that clears up a lot of unanswered questions in a nutshell!

ops
2 months ago

A vote for a Democrat is a vote against America!

Martha
2 months ago
Reply to  ops

And a vote for war.

anna hubert
2 months ago

I don’t care who is in control as long as our borders are secure,we are safe on our streets,businesses are doing well and children are properly taught

Jeb
2 months ago
Reply to  anna hubert

Today, at this point in time, you can forget everything you mentioned, not going to happen.

Gail Tubbs
2 months ago
Reply to  anna hubert

You must care! The truth is right in front of you as to who you should vote for. None of your expectations are up front with this administration.

anna hubert
2 months ago
Reply to  Gail Tubbs

I’ll vote for anyone who’ll give me what I’ve mentioned

J Rea
2 months ago
Reply to  anna hubert

If you vote for a Democrat because you think he or she is ok, you get Biden Harris Schumer Pelosi rule and nothing you care about

anna hubert
2 months ago
Reply to  J Rea

I am not a complete idiot I meant that there is not much difference between dem or rep if they do not deliver, give me one who will ,action counts not blather

Felix
2 months ago
Reply to  anna hubert

“It’s all about me”

legally present
2 months ago

After the beating at the hands of the Democrats, WHY would any sane person want to vote for a Democrat??? They are costing us thousands of $$$ EACH, and IF they do still control the Senate, be prepared for a mass Amnesty, and all the other things they say are good for us, but we hate!!

Jeb
2 months ago

Because they are intellectually incapable of understanding how their vote is connected to the events unfolding daily in America. Don’t believe me just ask one of them.

nate
2 months ago
Reply to  Jeb

They really are very clueless. The ones I have had conversations with always revert to hanging up or walking away from the conversation when presented with facts. They spout false talking points fed to them by the liars on MSM and do not do any thinking for themselves.

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