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Red Wave Meets Blue Riptide

AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman

Red wave

The new narrative is that the predicted red wave in the 2022 national mid-term elections failed to appear.

Large-scale net gains in the U.S. House and Senate, anticipated by Republicans and feared by Democrats, did not happen. Polls indicating that some Democratic incumbent Senators and House members could lose also did not prove as accurate as conservatives hoped. A blue riptide seemed to cut against the red wave.

But what did actually happen?

The total generic congressional vote gave Republican House candidates about 4 million more votes (about 4 percent) than Democratic candidates received. This was about equal to what most pre-election polls predicted. But many of those who interpreted those generic polls assumed that the totals of congressional vote in large states such as California and New York would have the same margins as the 2020 presidential vote. In fact, the generic vote in such large blues states was much closer than 2020, especially in New York, and so a four-point popular vote lead did not translate into as many seats as expected. Republicans did pick up several seats — enough when all races are decided to narrowly control the U.S. House, one of their two main goals.

Interestingly, when you factor in the unexpected 13-seat GOP gain in the House in 2020, the combined total gain is about average for a mid-term election.

Not a dramatic tsunami, but a key outcome.

In the Senate races, one race has not yet been decided, and will depend on a December 6 run-off in Georgia, as neither candidate received the required 50% of the vote. Many Republicans were anticipating winning more Senate races, but the pre-election polls only predicted that many Senate races Democrats actually won would be close. Democrats will continue to control the Senate.

On a net basis, the 2022 midterms were a modestly positive GOP outcome. Before this year’s elections, Democrats controlled both houses of Congress by small margins, so change of control in one, even by a small margin, has important consequences.

In races for governor, Democrats made a net gain of two. But winning in Massachusetts and Maryland, both very blue states, did not amount to a significant plus, since retiring GOP governors in those very liberal states were not very conservative. Liberals narrowly picked up a governor in Arizona, but conservatives defeated a Democratic governor in Nevada.

Both parties handicapped themselves by nominating a few very weak or eccentric nominees for some offices. The quality of candidates does matter a great deal, and this election reinforced this important political rule.

Campaign funding also matters. Democrats outraised and outspent Republicans dramatically in several close races. Democrats benefitted from Act Blue, their small-dollar fundraising platform, and from very large funding from super-rich donors through numerous SuperPACs. Their financial advantage in 2022 enabled them to advertise early in the campaign and then blitz at the end in critical contests, something Republicans rarely could or did match.

Fearing a red tsunami, Democrats went hardball and personal in the final days of the campaign in several close races. Like it or not, this strategy often works, and it seemed to have rescued several liberal candidates from possible defeat.

Second thoughts after initial feelings of disappointment for Republicans indicate a more positive sense of what happened in the 2022 national mid-term elections. On the other hand, Democrats will still feel considerable relief that the GOP did not win a rout.

The consequences for the 2024 presidential election might be very interesting. A GOP landslide in 2022 would have probably forced President Biden to announce he would not seek a second term, something many Democrats called for before the 2022 election. Now, however, this outcome would seem much more in doubt.

At the same time, the impressive re-election win in Florida of Governor Ron DeSantis gives Republicans a credible alternative for their party’s nomination — against former President Donald Trump (who just publicly announced he will run again in 2024). Fair or not, some conservatives are blaming Mr. Trump for their disappointing results in 2022. Of course, the 2024 cycle has barely begun, but it seems that the 2022 cycle will have some impact on the next presidential campaign.


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Frsnk
2 months ago

It surely seems suspicious when at the very beginning of voting, balloting machines break down in Maricopa county. I also feel that if the Republican Party wants to be a dominant force, Rinos need to be excommunicated from the party and it needs to function in a unified manner much like the Dems do.

Bill on the Hill
2 months ago
Reply to  Frsnk

There be so much truth in your comment Frsnk…
I will simply add, a good place to start would be in the Senate in REMOVING McConnell & the presumed speakership of McCarthy, another CA. RINO that is NOT our friend…
Bill… :~)

johnh
2 months ago

John McCain was very popular in Arizona, and my opinion is that Trump was totally wrong in attacking a person that was a POW during Viet Nam war. Trump had chance to apologize & mend fences with McCain but was too stubborn or narcisstic to use any common sense. How many votes did Trump cost Republicans in AZ ??????????

Frank
2 months ago
Reply to  johnh

I never thought that McCain was a true conservative, but I agree that Trump overstepped when he criticized his service.

johnh
2 months ago
Reply to  Frank

I wonder if Trump even realized that McCain’s plane was shot down by enemy fire & Trump’s idea of a hero is ?????

HocasPocas
2 months ago
Reply to  Frank

McCain gave the office to Barack Hussein in 2008

Bill on the Hill
2 months ago
Reply to  HocasPocas

Never forget… It was McCain’s vote that enshrined the ACA that most every American has suffered under ever since, i.e.” you will keep your doctor, you will keep your insurance company, ” all flat out lies spoken by Barack Hussein Obama no less than ( 2 ) times on National TV, he outright LIED to the American people & Senator John McCain was the deciding vote giving America the Affordable Care Act, that the majority of US citizens wanted no part of…The rest is history & to many people are stuck with it, sadly enough…
McCain was NEVER a hero, truth be told, in particular his reckless military service, thanks in no small part because of his Admiral father that got him into the Military Academy & his graduating ( 2nd ) to last out of 299 cadets…
That is the John McCain I never accepted in life, including his death, done…
Bill… :~)

johnh
2 months ago

It seems like the comments on this board feel the mid-term election was rigged. I would like to see AMAC run a poll & ask how many people believe or deny our elections? And one choice is if you are an election denier , did you vote or did you stay home cuz your vote does not count anyway.

HocasPocas
2 months ago
Reply to  johnh

You said a mouthful there JohnH. My vote probably got thrown out or switched. Something isn’t right with these voting machines and mail in ballots

Philip Hammersley
2 months ago

When you have friendly-fire from McConnell and Romney (among others), it’s hard to win a war! People in KY and UT, both of these things are up for election in 2024! Encourage someone to run against them in the primary, then get out the vote!

Harold
2 months ago

I agree that the Republicans need to start playing by the same underhanded rules used by the Democrats. However, the Democrats control the FBI, DOJ and now even our military. If Republicans started using the same shenanigans as the Democrats, there would be massive investigations, more prime time show trials and prison time for the “offenders.” Just look at how the Left ignored the hundreds of riots in 2020 but portrayed 50 people being herded into the Capitol as worse than Pearl Harbor.

Honey
2 months ago

Can we stop with the innuendos please? I hate “some conservatives blame Trump” for the disappointing results. I hate when liberals do it and they do it all the time – Many believe, there is anger about…
That is not news. News is supposed to list facts and inclusions of nebulous phrases like it is popularly believed irritate me. They are used instead of thinking or reporting.

It is difficult not to suspect foul play when a few states withhold the vote for a week or more after election night. Waiting to see how many votes they need to win?

And 200 out of 222 of Trump’s candidates won. Those are pretty good odds. And if states are going to use unsolicited mail in ballots and not count them for a week or so after, how are we supposed to trust the results? So Trump’s odds could have been even better than that. I will remain unconvinced that Lake did not win that governorship. And Laxalt his seat.

Spitfire?1940
2 months ago
Reply to  Honey

Totally agree,especially regarding Lake.

tofbs
2 months ago
Reply to  Honey

WELL PUT

johnh
2 months ago
Reply to  Honey

Lake said she was a election denier before the first vote was cast. How many people did not vote in this election because they say it is rigged ??? No wonder their opponents come up with more votes if the deniers do not vote.

Dennis Belotti
2 months ago

The damn Republicans never learn that to fight a beast ( Democrats) in the gutter you have to jump in the gutter with him.
They need to get down and dirty to save this country from Socialism. We the people need to keep their feet to the fire so they know who they represent. That requires mass protests and marches.

spitfire?1940
2 months ago
Reply to  Dennis Belotti

Totally agree.

Frank
2 months ago
Reply to  Dennis Belotti

I totally agree. The biggest problem with the republicans is there are too many Rinos who are no better than the democrats. They all drink from the same trough.

Rik
2 months ago

Stupid Republicans play by the Rules while Democrats make up the Rules as needed! . . . I’m sick and tired of the stupid Republicans getting out maneuvered every election. THEY NEVER LEARN!

PaulE
2 months ago
Reply to  Rik

As long as Republicans continue to think Democrats are going to “play fair” and want “unity” and will abide by the rules, we will get our a$$es handed to us every time. That is NOT who they are and WE should all know that by now. The Democrats have very few actual plays they just keep repeating over and over again each election cycle. So it really isn’t all the hard to defeat them, if we stop acting like children and take them on in an intelligent, unified fashion. Instead our side just pouts and complains, but we don’t change how we fight back against how the Democrats always act.

Deb Rockwell
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

Yes, indeed. And it is beyond time for US to take advantage of all those lax mail in voting laws in blue states. Perhaps THEN they will come to the table to discuss legit election integrity rules. We must play hardball going forward. Who will lead this charge?

Bill on the Hill
2 months ago
Reply to  Deb Rockwell

Trump will lead that charge, currently as was the case in 2016, there is NOT a single Republican with enough chops to make that happen…
Trump’s Mara Lago speech was long awaited by many, myself included. I just wasn’t sure he would run again after what the man was put through after his 2016 win for the next ( 4 ) years & actually continues to the present day & why is this you may ask? The Deep State operatives & the Democrat Socialist Party of America are held in perpetual FEAR of the man… The latest GASLIGHTING has already begun & will continue into the foreseeable future, let the games begin, America is fed up at this point with respect to the ongoing carnage being committed by the current regime in the WH…
Bill… :~)

Veteran
2 months ago

I wouldn’t call it a riptide so much, with all the “anomalies” in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Colorado, Nevada,… I would call it more of a “Fliptide” again, but hey it worked for them in 2020, didn’t it?

Stephen Russell
2 months ago

Red Fizzle due to:

o GOP NOT United
o Early voting
o Indoc voters vote Blue
o TV ads blocked some states
o voting software issues
o Slow counting ballots
o DC RNC DNC estd win
o GOP wont adapt, adopt Dem voting models

Or lose 2024

Urge RNC Task Force on Elections if serious

Honey
2 months ago

Also, according to Epoch Times because Google and others used fake news to sway lots of readers when they looked things up and had a considerable effect on those voters who were on the fence and influenced enough voters in close races to vote dem. also the Left cheats and uses fraud. There I said it.

johnh
2 months ago
Reply to  Honey

Do you believe the exit polls that show that both Trump & Biden have disapproval ratings of 56% .from the voters in mid-terms. That means a lot of votes were against these two.

ezed2109
2 months ago

Good assessment, but there are definitely a dozen other factors one could add to why this was the outcome we had.
There was some dirty dealing, but so far no reports of anything to the extent we had in 2020. We really need to be able to hold safe a secure elections that do not take weeks.
House Republicans tried to come out with their Commitment to America platform but was not sold well and we also have the Risk Scott’s Rescue America and then the RINOs who are part of the CYA platform. Perfect example, of that would be Mitch McConnell’s use of campaign funds. $9 million to an Alaska Republican going against another Republican… are you kidding me?
We had some great candidates in NJ but working with them it was clear the GOP was MIA!
Lindsey Graham allowed the left to make abortion a major Federal campaign issue when it should have just passed onto the States as an issue.
Finally, although the Jan 6th hearings have been lame the Left has successfully spun it into a full blown insurrection by the evil and radical Trump supporters looking to over-throw your Democracy.
The Left won again on messaging, emotions and fear and the Republicans were not as successful as they could have been because they shot themselves in the foot.

Jim
2 months ago
Reply to  ezed2109

I concur.

Dennis
2 months ago
Reply to  ezed2109

Astute observations…the left NEVER wins on policy but it’s quite good at pushing emotional buttons.

Liz
2 months ago
Reply to  ezed2109

The Democrats made use of Harvest Balloting in both Nevada and Arizona.,Why do the Republicans play straight & narrow….and don’t take advantage of the LOOPHOLES as the Dems do.
The Rep. party seems to think the voters all have motivation ethics and morals.

ezed2109
2 months ago
Reply to  Liz

I have mixed feelings on this. I get it that maybe we are not playing the game and it costs us but.. because there are things like ballot harvesting, universal mail-in ballots (sending out millions of authentic but ineligible ballots to every person on the inaccurate Registration Databases), 1,000s of unmonitored drop boxes, Voter Roles obsolete voter information, voting and counting that goes for days… should we just start playing unfair as well? See who can out-cheat the other?

Felix
2 months ago
Reply to  ezed2109

I would like to add two other observations, first the corrupt Main Stream Media using their powerful influence on all the low information voters by not reporting the true reasons why the country is in the downward spiral it’s in by spinning it to the Republican “policies”, the other is all the younger voters coming out of the woke public schools and universities, that have brainwashed them to support socialism, CRT and LGQRST, in my opinion they will have the biggest influence on all future election if not corrected.

ezed2109
2 months ago
Reply to  Felix

Thank you… I realized I forgot the fake news after I hit enter on my post. lol. Students and buying their votes with Loan forgiveness is another excellent point.

PaulE
2 months ago
Reply to  ezed2109

Agree with you.

The second Contract for America was badly bungled by both McConnell and McCarthy, because neither one wanted to agree to any specific, short-term deliverables, So the process was dragged out for months, until what was produced at the end was completely content free and essentially was just a jumble of word meaningless salad.

McConnell pulling funding from several GOP candidates and spending an outragious amount to prop-up RINO Murkowski, because she would support him in the leadership position, was just a disgrace. McCarthy had control of a lot of campaign funds and he also was a joke. Rick Scott’s Rescue America Plan was lifted almost word for word from Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign. It was clear a few days after Scott released it as his own, he couldn’t actually defend it because it was a just photo op play. Something he did as part of his bid to try and garner votes within the Senate to try and get McConnell’s leadership position. So that plan quickly faded into obscurity, once several in the media pointed out what Scott had done.

In NJ, I agree the Republican party was, as usual, pretty much M.I.A.. The state is a complete mess and yet the Republican party in the state just keeps replaying the same old, tired playbook. As for Graham, he is what he is. A RINO that just can’t help himself to try and create problems for the GOP where none existed. What part of abortion is back to being a States Rights issue can’t the idiot understand. The federal government has no say in the matter and all he seeks to do is create problems where now none exist.

As for January 6th, the Democrats succeeded in creating the media event they planned for. It achieved its goal of stopping any questioning by the Senate of the 2020 election results and cowering the vast majority of Republicans into accepting Joe Biden. Then they over did it and tried to conflate some scattered protests into some sort of insurrection and completely tipped their hand.

Philip Hammersley
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

Spot on as usual, PaulE!

Philip Hammersley
2 months ago
Reply to  ezed2109

Graham unnecessarily poked the abortion hornets’ nest! Why not wait until WE WIN before proposing laws!

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