Government Watch / Politics

Recession Alert: Inflation Will Recede Slowly, For Sure, But Brace Yourself For The Recession To Follow

Inflation
Economic Adviser Jared Bernstein participates in the daily press briefing, Friday, April 1, 2022, to talk about the jobs created by President Biden.

WASHINGTON, DC, May 24 – It’s rare these days that a Democrat and a Republican see eye-to-eye on anything but Mayor Levar Stoney of Richmond, VA, a Democrat, and John Giles, the Republican mayor of Mesa, AZ, are on the same page – literally – when it comes to the issue of Joe Biden’s inflation crisis.  Together, they penned an Opinion article recently for CNN’s business website that challenges the president and his administration to cut to the chase and do something about it.

“Families across America are precariously perched on the edge of a hunger cliff. With inflation on the rise and supply chain backlogs, more families have been turning to food banks, forcing programs nationwide to ration supplies and cut services. And now the war in Ukraine is leading to more food shortages and driving up prices even further. Now is not the time to turn our backs on those who cannot afford to put food on the table…if Washington doesn’t act soon, many of the programs that have served as a lifeline during the pandemic will expire, and millions more will go hungry,” they wrote.

For example, milk prices have soared so high that families that were used to buying the milk they need for their children by the gallon are purchasing this staple in smaller amounts. Douglas McMillon, CEO of the Walmart megastores, reports the company is seeing some customers are switching from their usual branded label milk to cheaper private label brands.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics [BLS] assessment shows that at the end of the Trump administration and the beginning of the Biden’s presidency, the price of milk in January 2021 stood at $3.47; currently it costs more than $4.00. BLS says that milk prices rose at least 14.7% year-to-year for all urban consumers in April, up from 13.3% in March.

The website, Trading Economics, reports that, based on data from the BLS, the inflation rate stood at a 41 year high of 8.5% in March. It dropped to 8.3% in April. But “inflation is unlikely to fall to pre-pandemic levels any time soon and will remain above the Fed’s 2% target for a long time as supply disruptions persist and energy and food prices remain elevated.”

Meanwhile, the experts tell us that the inflationary cycle will likely segue into a recession and that means more misery awaits us. The investment bank of Piper Sandler tracked instances when a recession followed inflation and reports that it’s happened in all but one of nine instances over the past five decades. So what’s in store for us in the near-term future? 

“You may lose your job during a recession, as unemployment levels rise. Not only are you more likely to lose your current job, it becomes much harder to find a job replacement since more people are out of work. People who keep their jobs may see cuts to pay and benefits, and struggle to negotiate future pay raises,” says the Forbes Advisor.

Forbes editor Benjamin Curry and contributor David Rodeck prepared that report and noted that a recession is a lot like a the much more debilitation economic condition known as a depression. In their report, Curry and Rodeck site statistics compiled by the National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER], which keeps track recessions: “According to NBER data, from 1945 to 2009, the average recession lasted 11 months. This is an improvement over earlier eras: From 1854 to 1919, the average recession lasted 21.6 months…Even if you plan ahead to prepare for a recession, it can be a frightening experience. If there’s any silver lining, it’s that recessions do not last forever. Even the Great Depression eventually ended, and when it did, it was followed by the arguably the strongest period of economic growth in U.S. history.”


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Garye
1 month ago

It’s shameful that Our Country, the Greatest on earth is being destroyed by selfish,greedy politicians with an ideology that they can dictate and control people with God given rights and freedom.
In America, there should not be poverty, we are the richest economy in the world.
Our veterans ,seniors, and mentally challenged Citizens, should never be neglected or forgotten for the sake of money.
Our People are the most valuable asset , not a couple more billion of profit at their expense.
On Memorial Day we remember those who gave it all to protect Life,Freedom and Our God given Rights, these are what matters.
What has happened in America when all of those ideals, our credo to live by is becoming forgotten??
It appears We have lost Our way.
Just maybe focusing on God, Family, Freedom and treating others how we’d like to be treated may lead the way??
What I know is the path we’re on, is the wrong one!

Ed Black
1 month ago

Meanwhile, Biden and the mainstream news try to tell us this Administrations war on fossil fuel energy had nothing to do with rising cost of energy… which in turn adds to everything else’s costs.

tika
1 month ago

Recession Alert: Inflation Will Recede Slowly ref. jimmy carter. everything the dems do starts between their ears.

Kim
1 month ago

With wholesale prices recently surging at a larger percentage (11%) than consumer price increases, it looks like prices will continue to rise higher for some time to come. As long as the cost of fuel and labor continue upward, I don’t see how biden’s “transitory” inflation will stabilize or decrease. This is not good news for the economy, our wallets, or biden’s reelection prospects (Yippee).

Incidentally, milk around here was $2.89 or less a year ago, and is now close to $4.00/gallon. That’s Walmart’s brand. Lately, I’ve been buying their 8-pack yogurt, which is about the same price as the name-brand 4-pack. The price for organic bananas, surprisingly, decreased from 65 to 30 cents per pound! We save where we can, but this is getting ridiculous.

Garye
1 month ago
Reply to  Kim

Kim – it’s past ridiculous.
Families are sliding backwards often with two people working, this is failure by politicians concerned only with themselves and party politics.
The marxist democrats, but far to many rinos as well.
I pray we begin to change it in 2022, or we will no longer have the America we know.
This radical transformation the democrat party speaks of and promotes in Our Country’s destruction!

Kim
30 days ago
Reply to  Garye

I agree. Everyone is complaining about these meteoric price hikes, shortages, and the cost of commuting. Never in my wildest nightmares did I think it could get this bad. Everyone needs to vote this November and in 2024—sitting it out IS NOT ALLOWED!

mark sligh sr
1 month ago

Here is a good one for Biden and his crew of jerk wads ,,,, BUILD BACK BETTER PLAN ,,,, How about just put things back like you found them,, The American people will be happy ,,

Garye
1 month ago
Reply to  mark sligh sr

Perfect Mark, and yet so simple.

David Millikan
1 month ago

When DICTATOR Beijing biden is PROSECUTED and EXECUTED for TREASON then INFLATION and RECESSION and ILLEGAL ALIENS CONSTANTLY COMING ACROSS OUR BORDERS WILL CEASE.
AND AMERICANS WON’T BE SHOT AND KILLED BY ILLEGAL ALIEN TERRORIST.

tika
1 month ago

when you’re bilking the taxpayers like the socialists always do, they should cut to the chase to see that the people always rise up against them and and show them some very rough treatment.

D.P.
1 month ago

Perhaps, just maybe….someone has finally gotten the message that this economy is in shambles and heading into the abyss…..perhaps, just maybe. Pardon my distrust, folks, but I don’t think anyone on the hill is actually on the ball. While these guys may seem to be justly bent out of shape….just what does an “opinion article” do to help? Just words…..falling on deaf liberal ears. Perhaps when riots ensue, someone will sit up and take notice and actually do something….like restoring fuel supplies by becoming energy independent….like putting all the “green” crap on the back burner or just off the agenda all together….like closing the border….like stopping the regulations that hinder production and transmission of goods…..like….well like the previous administration did…….turn this around before even law-abiding citizens take to the streets.

Garye
1 month ago
Reply to  D.P.

D.P. – I hope with you, but remember what this group does best, LIE

JEFFREY JONES
1 month ago

Arrest the whole biden administration for treason!!

Ronnie
1 month ago

All I can say is stolen elections have consequences. We are looking at those consequences now and it will certainly get worse. I suspect the next election will be stolen also because they got by with it the last time. Laws were broken and it will have to happen again because they would be prosecuted if they loose power. If they ran the country right by the constitution as well as they lie and cheat there wouldn’t be any problem. But it’s all about the power and money. Follow the money if you want to see for yourselves.

Lynn
1 month ago
Reply to  Ronnie

So does an ill informed STUPID, corrupt public

mark sligh sr
1 month ago

All i can say here is i hope enough of the democratic voters have suffered enough to see the error they made and are getting out to vote and start putting things back to where they were before Biden and the rest of the FREE NATION KILLERS took control ,

Bill T
1 month ago
Reply to  mark sligh sr

So sorry to say your dreaming if you actually believe that the brain washed and completely lied to democrats will ever vote anyway but BLUE! 75 percent of these fools will blindly vote for the biggest threat and enemy this country has ever faced , the new world progressive socialist democrats.And a left wing media and potus that spread hatred lies and a communist style propaganda system. This country is in serious trouble and it’s getting worse by the minute!

Ollyoop
1 month ago
Reply to  mark sligh sr

Um, if they were dumb enough to vote for an administration that has caused this grief, they deserve all the misery it can bring them! However, I don’t think their mental acuity has changed, as the old saying goes, ‘you can’t fix stupid’ !!

Garye
1 month ago
Reply to  Ollyoop

Fix it no, even get them to recognize stupid is impossible!

Garye
1 month ago
Reply to  mark sligh sr

Mark, try having a conversation with a democrat……..their ideologues without ideas.
They are SO brainwashed its frightening, so brain blocked from actual thoughts that they believe this administration is saving America.
You can give point by point, documented facts, statistics and actual statements that are proven lies, and they are not capable or chose not to even give them consideration.
Truly a inability to think,reason or explore a differant idea???
What is wrong with them????
It’s abnormal,bizarre behavior.

Jeb
1 month ago

Preppers need to be renamed spoiler alerters.

Boz
1 month ago

So….it’s the Double-whammy recession…

David Millikan
1 month ago

Since WE THE PEOPLE will have Summer Blackouts thanks to DICTATOR Beijing biden he can TURN OFF ALL Air Conditioning in White House for WHOLE SUMMER and SUFFER like the rest of us thanks to his FASCIST policies.
NO TAXPAYERS FUNDING FOR WHITE HOUSE and AIR FORCE ONE GETS NO JET FUEL OR HIS GAS GUZZLING VEHICLES INCLUDING MILITARY TRANSPORT. Includes you too pelosi.
Two can play this game.

Granny26
1 month ago
Reply to  David Millikan

Pelosi’s booze bill is higher than the fuel bill. Cut her off too.

PaulE
1 month ago
Reply to  David Millikan

Never going to happen. While cities sit in darkness and swelter this summer, Washington, D.C. will continue to function completely oblivious to what these ruinous policies have delivered. Biden will continue to spend weekends at his beach house in Delaware or fly to some foreign country to make a fool of himself elsewhere. As for the average American, they will get to enjoy “our transition to a green economy”, just like the Europeans have been doing for years now. Brownouts and blackouts are just part of the joys the American people will have to learn to enjoy as part of our new green future.

Rhonda
1 month ago
Reply to  PaulE

You are really depressing, PaulE.

Kim
1 month ago
Reply to  Rhonda

But he’s right, unfortunately. Not that any of this matters to the dems, who claim to feel for the little guy. Lies, all lies.

Bill T
1 month ago
Reply to  PaulE

Hope your generator is working, and get a propane tank to use for fuel, 1000 lb tank, totally independent from the grid.

Kim
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill T

And grow your own vegetables and fruits. I’m even considering a chicken coop (for eggs)!

Garye
1 month ago
Reply to  PaulE

The only choice is to THROW THEM OUT!
Begin the purge of ANY/ALL swamp politicians who refuse to abide by Real Citizens wishes.
Enough self serving, corrupt, greedy politicians!

Garye
1 month ago
Reply to  David Millikan

Dave- I say THROW THE marxist democrats OUT!
They are FAILURES and TRAITORS!
They work for the People , YOU’RE FIRED!

PaulE
1 month ago

Another article stating the obvious and of little to no value to anyone. Of course we will be entering a recession by the end of this year or early next year, as inflationary pressures slow the economy down and the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates to cut off market liquidity in certain sectors of the economy. That is already baked into most non-governmental economic forecasts. The federal government will always be the last one to acknowledge this reality, because of their role in creating the problem itself.

Bill T
1 month ago

With the perfect storm of corruption all perfectly and strategically in place, Covid shutdown of the world’s infrastructure, unnecessary shutdown’s of our businesses and trillions in free government handouts, a president who basically in a few minutes destroyed our energy sector and has now forced all of us into paying OUTRAGEOUS costs to fill our vehicles. Now open borders with millions of illegals flooding into our country and then being shipped throughout our country. We’re in for a hell of a ride, it’s not a good situation when we have a basically treasonous potus and administration that is destroying our country, This could end up being like nothing this country has ever witnessed or even though was possible, (who ever thought our infant’s would run out of baby formula) although we now are hearing that literally thousands of tons of baby food and other essentials are waiting for all these illegals at our southern border? Inflation is rampant like a runaway freight train, our administration wants to still pump trillions of dollars into our already almost worthless currency, there literally relentless in there goals to take over everything, it’s like a school of sharks with blood in the water, these next 6 months will decide the future of our country and our family and children. Bernie and the rest of these socialist enemies of our freedoms couldn’t be happier right now. Wake up everyone or it’s famine and misery for each and everyone of us.

Bill on the Hill
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill T

( 60 ) billion in Ukraine aid, ( 40 ) billion signed into law by BOTH parties, with the exception of ( 57 ) patriotic lawmakers, that’s it, done, over… Supporting a corrupt foreign nation with their 4th generation NAZI inspired militias harassing & killing the ethnic Russians in the Donbas Region…
Read this carefully: At DAVOs & nobody saw it coming btw, a former Nixon administration man states the obvious, none other than Henry Kissinger & I happen to agree with him, Zalensky of Ukraine should CEDE the Donbas Region back to Russia…Both Zalensky, the petulant movie actor that he is & Vladimir Putin of Russia, should sit down & work out an agreement to end this war & stop the killing hence forth…America cannot & will not accomplish this, the ( 2 ) leaders in this border dispute can do this… Who makes the first move in this game of chess…?
The Biden administration has been instigating this war from the very beginning & deliberately placing NATO troops around Russia for months now, knowing full well what the outcome would be…

The Biden administration from day one has gone full tilt in getting America prepared for the great reset per the global elites running the show behind the scenes…Pushing the New Green Deal that simply will NOT happen overnight, at a minimum it is ( 2 ) generations away from maybe happening.
The simple facts are obvious, America & the world over need OIL in order to maintain stable economies, you don’t just flip a switch, like Biden has done & state we are going all in on electric vehicles, not going happen in any of our lifetimes…

From Biden’s 1st day in office, America has gone into a out of control tailspin, canceling the keystone by EO along with a stack of ( 49 ) additional EO’s all written in advance before he was installed as their puppet & like a good puppet, he signed them all…

The current administration has left America vulnerable with a WIDE OPEN southern border & all of it was by DESIGN long before they picked Biden & Harris as their useful pawns…
The plandemic, mandates, face masks, pandemic based election laws changed by the Executive Branch in all ( 50 ) states, all by design from the very beginning & all quite ILEEGAL & deliberately allowed to happen…

Bill Gates predicted the Covid virus as the next pandemic a full year before China released it & not so surprising Mr. Gates earlier on predicted the Monkeypox virus, before any outbreaks had occurred. Does anyone besides myself find this a bit strange…?
Last time I knew, Bill Gates is not a virologist nor a biologist nor is he a certified doctor of medicine in any capacity & yet Bill Gates has full knowledge of these virus’s taking hold before anyone else in the world…

It is long overdue for people like Bill Gates, Anthony Fauci of the NIH, Peter Daszak of Eco Health Alliance working with the NIH grant money & sending it off to the Wuhan Virology Labs in Wuhan, China to be held to account for what they have allowed to happen & Fauci should be arrested for lying to Congress on what he termed himself earlier on, working on Gain of Function research here in the states & shipping it out of North Carolina to Wuhan, China, presumably because of the lethality of mixing bat viruses into human cells…Sadly, those are the facts, according to Fauci, he had no knowledge of it as he desperately tried in vane to change the name of the research whilst sitting before the Congress & repeatedly lying, kudos to Senator Rand Paul for never backing down.

Lastly I hold every lawmaker in Congress in CONTEMPT, both parties for signing off on the ( 40 ) billion in aid to Ukraine. Are you listening Ted Cruz of Texas & your fellow colleague, you know, the one with ( 1 ) eye…
How’s that Texas border wall coming along Gov. Abbott?
Bill… :~)

Max
1 month ago

Agree with you, Bill, unfortunately there will still be no accountability for all the stupidity that has occurred.

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