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Putin the Gambler

Russia Putin Russian

The gambler that doubles down and doubles down until out of money, out of credit, out of luck, and out of friends – is often out on the street. Putin is that guy, high risk-high reward, and when losing higher risk, until out of options. He is not there yet, but the day approaches. See, e.g., Putin has ‘no way out’ of failed Ukraine invasion, former NATO ambassador says.

Putin’s decision-making – rather obviously – is flawed. It was flawed from the outset, as a former KGB agent wielding power for 22 years would naturally be. Beyond looking back, he assumes old Soviet ways will bring success. He is literally fighting the last war.

Why did this gambler get it so wrong? First, he assumed those around him tell him the truth when they are chiefly motivated by personal power, position, and fear – they are “yes” men.

He assumed the Russian Army, objectively underfunded, undertrained, and unmotivated, is the former Red Army, only it is not. He assumed Ukraine 2022 is Czechoslovakia 1938 – or 1967, or Hungary 1956, Poland 1982 – only it is not, and those victories failed. 

The “ash heap of history” is waiting. The gambler talks big keeps increasing his bet, never stops at a win, thinks Lady Luck (and history) will aid him, disparages odds, ignores losses, blames others, and smothers – himself. That is Putin.

One other sign of a bad gambler, one sure to lose it all, is the more they lose, the more confident they are they can win it all back. The more he ought to doubt, the more confidence he projects.

When it comes to warfighting, gambling of the highest kind, three factors decide everything.

One is material, hard numbers, facts, and force structure – how many trained infantry, airplanes, missiles, drones, pieces of artillery, strength of resupply, and physical parameters.

One is spirit or heart, which affects motivation and morale, the will to be all-in during the fight, take it all to the enemy, vilify them, stay the course, suffer, not let up, win the day. 

Last is dumb luck, meaning when, how, where, what, and with what effect arrive uncontrollable conditions, the ones that define the battlespace, like weather, resistance, freelance hackers, physical obstacles, depleted moral capital, spirit and resupply of opponents, and slippage of plans.

The rub: Putin, a high-stakes, damn-the-world gambler, does not have the factors needed to win. His material, hardware, parts, supply lines, air dominance, training, missile versatility, and officer knowledge base and judgment – are objectively poor and getting worse.

On spirit, heart, and morale, the beleaguered German Army at the end of WWII probably had higher spirit de corps than Russian soldiers today. They do not know why they are there, as basic rationale and the narrative comes under fire. They did not want to be here, more each week.

The more things slow, the lower their morale will be. Bogged down supply, resistance growing, eroding gains, and a loss of tactical surprise and momentum – all bode poorly for Putin’s Army.

Last, Lady Luck is not with Putin, dealing him opposition unity, leaving large parts of the Russian Army fumbling against physical and social barriers, creating doubt about his invasion, even from China.

Net-net, the gambler has to “know when to hold them, and know when to fold them,” and perhaps know when there are no more cards to be dealt, or even hoped on. 

Putin’s options are narrowing. He may threaten the entire world – with nuclear weapons or some rogue act upping the ante, assuring his own destruction and Russia’s. Or he may back and fill, saying he got what he wanted, then consolidating what illegal actions produced.

Facts vector to one conclusion. While this war could go on months, and may witness a growing insurgency, pressure on Putin will grow not to shrink. He is unlikely to use a nuclear weapon since that would earn Russia vilification akin to Nazi Germany. He is most likely to stop asking for cards, find a way to be done, then start justifying what is without justification. Odds are, even as the insurgency continues, the last option is his best. But then, as we know, gamblers defy logic.


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Tigerbob
4 months ago

I am very disappointed in the article. I thought AARP wrote it. Putin is helping to take down the DS in very corrupt Ukraine. He strategically bombed places which were the labs. If he wanted a war he would have just bombed wherever. Most photos and videos are
From other events in other countries. He wants the neonazis and Azov out. They are the ones killing their own people. Russia brought in tons of food and aid. If AMAC continues to write like this I will not be renewing. And I just recommended your mag to someone. Stop watching the MSM. The Ukraine is not a sovereign nation.

Dan W.
4 months ago
Reply to  Tigerbob

I am very disappointed in this comment. I thought QAnon wrote it.

Gerald
4 months ago

Putin and Biden are both losers,judgement day is coming for their kind

Willie Ryan
4 months ago

This would not be going on if Trump was president.I believe we are going to be attacked and it will be worse than 9-11.Watch out New York they have you on there number one list.

Brian
4 months ago

I guess I don’t understand what this highly speculative piece of wishful thinking is supposed to accomplish. Unlike the mainstream media, AMAC is directly dependent on it’s members (or is it?) for funding and clearly it’s members are not buying what AMAC is selling (figuratively). If this trend continues, I will withdraw my support.

Samuel
4 months ago

… this contradicts what we’re hearing from the mainstream media:
 
wnd.com/2022/03/defense-expert-spots-massive-issue-russia-trucks-indicates-entire-wars-change/
 
This implies Russia’s invasion was impromptu; something the Russians reacted to, spur of the moment; save who may. No prewar inspections, no readiness assessments, no real strategy, these observations suggest invasion of Ukraine wasn’t conceived much in advance.

Mush less even studied.
 
Putin’s anything but a general. He knows little of military operations, tactics or strategy. Like Donald Rumsfeld and George Bush, “… going to war with the army he has,” trying to figure it out along the way, he doesn’t really know what he’s doing.
 
Evidence suggests Putin was baited. Something exogenous (e.g., Zelenskyy) spooked Putin, and he knee jerked, invading Ukraine well before he was ready to.
 
Rumors Bejing-Biden surreptitiously has American boots already on the ground, that we’ve already taken heavy casualties, we are safe to assume we are definitely not getting the straight scoop what’s really going on with the Russo-Ukraine War —

William Kilgore
4 months ago

I can get this kind of propaganda from ARRP and is why I joined, I thought, you folks at AMAC! I thought AMAC had conservative patriotic values, always seeking individual research for truth!

Donnie G
4 months ago

I agree. And they keep remiving my upvote to you and our brothers sisters..

Robert
4 months ago

Please somebody advise me as to where I can get my yellow and blue bumper sticker and Ukrainian flag to put on my garage.

Robert
4 months ago
Reply to  Robert

goofballs….

Enuf Said
4 months ago
Reply to  Robert

From your fearless leader Biden!!

Casey C Matt
4 months ago

Im really sorry that AMAC is also following the media/corporate/political narrative……but almost all of this article is specious. First how is it gambling when Putin has already won? Ukraine will fall and no as todays news proves Zelinsky is no democracy deity. As for Russia having no friends. What about China, India, Brazil…..numerous other countries that are backing or at least not posing to denounce or embargo Russia? Thats a LOT of friends.
I love America but in this instance it is we that are largely friendless. The UK remains our lapdog but Germany is not going through with oil embargos……France either nor Italy.

Who again has the least friends in this idiotic Ukraine fervor campaign?

Dan W.
4 months ago
Reply to  Casey C Matt

It’s interesting that Turkey and Poland, two neighbors of both Russia and Ukraine, are taking a more proactive role in trying to assist in ending this human disaster than the so-called major powers and/or the other European countries who seem to be clueless.

Donnie G
4 months ago

Catering to deep state mafia, lifetime politician crime families and Ukranian neoNazis killing their own people. Shame on you, AMAC.

Donnie G
4 months ago

You are RINO Deep State shills. I’m done eith AMAC. Adios.

Virginia Walcott
4 months ago

You are so off the mark. WATCH OLIVER STONE’S UKRAINE ON FIRE AND LEARN HISTORY, THEN WATCH RET. COL. MACGREGOR’S REMARKS OF LATE.

old silk
4 months ago

This article reminds me of old cold war era pentagon propaganda, and it is under campaign news.

Demeter
4 months ago

This is full of it. Try getting out of the propaganda bath. Put Biden in wherever you mention Putin, and you’ll have something real and truthful.

Texas Resister 64
4 months ago

The misnomer is “spirit de corps” which jams together English and Latin/French awkwardly. In ROTC many decades ago I learned the Army says espirit de corps to refer to morale.

Paul Davis
4 months ago

Neutralize Putin and his cohorts in nations blindly supporting him may come to their senses

Enuf Said
4 months ago
Reply to  Paul Davis

Kind of like we did in VietNam, Iraq,Iran and Afghanistan! You can’t be serious!!

Divinasenia Terrasi
4 months ago

Anything that the evil Demoncrats support and propagandize, be wary.

Barb304
4 months ago

Putin is another a$$hole who needs to be taken down.

Divinasenia Terrasi
4 months ago
Reply to  Barb304

Between Putin and Zelensky, I’ll go with the lesser evil, Putin. Know the history of Russia and Ukraine. Here is a video that somehow AMAC is somehow censoring. I will repost the link anyway. rumble.com/vxwceh-mel-k-and-author-cynthia-chung.html?fbclid=IwAR3BzNipB4S3-vgrV2rosnTwYLc-CloDVxLFL730lPWWidn9ox7phgIzsxo

Dan W.
4 months ago

The war criminal is the lesser evil ?

All that I can say to that is: Bombs Away !!

Donnie G
4 months ago
Reply to  Dan W.

No. Zelensky the war criminal is the greater evil.

Dan W.
4 months ago
Reply to  Donnie G

Which Russian cities is the Ukrainian air force bombing ?

Donnie G
4 months ago
Reply to  Dan W.

Strawman.

Enuf Said
4 months ago
Reply to  Dan W.

With what air force– Putin has destroyed the Ukranian old SU-23 SOVIET made aircraft they HAD!!China would not buy these antiquated aircraft from Russia. no wonder Zelensky wants the USA to establish a no-fly zone–Which even Strawberry Shortcake (Bidens voice) and Biden have said NO, as it will get the USA drawn into ANOTHER conflict that is NONE OF OUR BUSINESS!!

Divinasenia Terrasi
4 months ago

Readers: You may want to watch this. The truth about Ukraine by the brilliant scholar and author, Cynthia Chung and Mel K. rumble.com/vxwceh-mel-k-and-author-cynthia-chung.html?fbclid=IwAR3BzNipB4S3-vgrV2rosnTwYLc-CloDVxLFL730lPWWidn9ox7phgIzsxo

Dan W.
4 months ago

I’m more interested in the truth about Putin since he’s the one ordering up the air strikes.

Gordon Eckhardt
4 months ago

This article did not address the China factor. That is a big deal. The article was good for the single perspective it addressed. But being so one sided diminished the article usefulness.

D.P.
4 months ago

The last statement in this article holds the key…..”gamblers defy logic…” While this article conveys some sense of optimism, we cannot predict the way Putin or any other like-minded despot will act.
That unpredictability is the terror behind the outcome….and there will be no winners. Not Putin, not Ukraine, Not the U.S., China, or the rest of Europe. War is always sloppy….and the words of Coach Tom Landry of the Cowboys, long past still stands…be it a football game or a waged war….”anyone can win at any time….” The danger lies in the fact that Putin, if pushed into the proverbial corner, is just the kind of logic defying gambler the world could do without. Time alone will tell, and in the end someone will have to pick up the pieces…..our recent history as a nation says we will be the ones who foot the bill for clean-up……even if we remain distant from the fray. So, dear friends…..keep your hats on…..the rough ride is yet to come.

Texas Resister 64
4 months ago
Reply to  D.P.

Yes, Landry also had a relevant quote why he didn’t have his QB pass more often: if you put the ball in the air, three things can happen, and two of them are bad.

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