AMAC Exclusive – By Aaron Flanigan
With just six months to go until the first vote of the Republican primaries, frontrunner Donald Trump’s potential absence from the debate stage this summer might be the biggest story of the race so far – and could be a fatal blow to the rest of the GOP field.
In recent years, Republican primary debates have led to significant polling shifts that ultimately went a long way toward deciding the nominee. In the 2012 cycle, for instance, eventual nominee Mitt Romney saw a four-point surge following a solid performance at an early debate in June of 2011. Texas Governor Rick Perry, meanwhile – who surged to a 12-point lead following his announcement in August of 2011 – collapsed in the polls following several poor debate performances.
In 2016, Donald Trump ascended to the top of the polls and maintained his status as the GOP frontrunner in large part thanks to his dominance during the Republican debates, during which he famously launched a series of blistering attacks against frontrunner and establishment favorite Jeb Bush. As even Democrat presidential contender Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., recently commented, Trump is “probably the most successful debater in this country” since Abraham Lincoln.
Why, then, some voters may ask, would Trump forego the same forum that helped propel him to the White House in 2016?
For starters, there is the fact that, after four years in the White House, voters already know what they are getting with Trump. Americans have seen Trump deliver on his promises to cut taxes, nominate originalist judges, fight back against Democrat extremism, and defend traditional conservative values as president – something every other contender can only claim that they would do, as opposed to actually having done it.
Moreover, though some political pundits have been critical of Trump’s flirtation with sitting out the debates, the on-the-ground political reality for the former president is markedly different now than it was eight years ago—and his decision to not take the debate stage is based in shrewd political calculus.
In late July 2015, Trump was polling at roughly 15 percent, virtually tied with candidates like Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. He then used the debates to secure his eventual polling lead. But now, as the runaway frontrunner polling close to 60 percent with a nearly 40-point lead over his nearest opponent, Trump has very little incentive to show up. To participate in the debates as the clear frontrunner would supercharge the debate’s television ratings, which in turn would needlessly grant political legitimacy to his competitors, most of whom are already struggling to find political oxygen.
Furthermore, Fox News—which is hosting the first debate—has a long history of actively working against Trump and his political interests. In previous debates hosted by Fox, moderators have taken it upon themselves to spar with Trump rather than orchestrating a substantive debate focused on the issues.
Earlier this year, a Fox co-host also said that Trump poses a “danger to America.” Fox chairman Rupert Murdoch has even reportedly been working behind the scenes to undermine Trump’s campaign.
In other words, any debate hosted by Fox is likely to be more of a coordinated political hit job on Trump than an honest, neutral discussion on the important issues facing the conservative movement.
As Trump himself has acknowledged, Fox, the corporate media, and other GOP candidates all desperately need Trump’s presence on the debate stage for the sake of their own relevance. “We have a lead of 50 and 60 points in some cases… You’re leading people by 50 and 60 points, you say why would you be doing a debate?” Trump said when asked about his participation in the upcoming debate. “It’s actually not fair. Why would you let somebody that’s at zero or one or two or three be popping you with questions?”
If Trump does ultimately follow through with his threats to abstain from participating in debates, the GOP primaries could very well enter a months long standstill that prevents other candidates from chipping away at Trump’s lead. They will likely be forced, then, to rely on interviews, speeches, and perhaps even traditionally untapped political channels as a way to boost their polling numbers.
Whether or not other contenders will have any room to improve their own standings in a Trump-free debate cycle, however, remains to be seen.
Aaron Flanigan is the pen name of a writer in Washington, D.C.
