AMAC Exclusive – By Ben Solis
With the world’s attention on Israel and the Middle East, China is continuing to grow more aggressive in the South China Sea – much to the concern of U.S. allies Japan and Australia, which have expressed alarm at the lack of American leadership in the region under President Joe Biden.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese traveled to the White House on Wednesday amid mounting tensions with Beijing, where he is scheduled to travel next month. But even as Biden rolled out the red carpet for Albanese with a state dinner, he has failed to deliver much substantive assurance that the United States will remain a strong partner in countering Chinese aggression.
Biden has notably lagged behind financing U.S. missile defense infrastructure in the South Pacific, which Australia also relies on for its defense. Amid rapid advancements in China’s hypersonic missile technology, military leaders fear that top targets like U.S. aircraft carriers could now be vulnerable.
Ahead of his departure, Albanese also reiterated the importance of the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) submarine pact, which involves the transfer of nuclear-powered submarine technology from the U.K. and U.S. to Australia. Work backlogs under Biden have raised some concerns that the promised delivery of eight nuclear-powered vessels could be significantly delayed.
The submarine deal and missile defense infrastructure has taken on added importance as reports have surfaced of a covert Chinese “maritime militia” consisting of hundreds of ostensibly civilian vessels that could serve a military purpose.
Last month, more than 220 Chinese “fishing boats” crowded around Whitsun Reef, a Philippine possession in the Spratly Island chain in the South China Sea that China claims as part of its territory. Military analysts said they believe the move was a show of force from China in the disputed territory.
The Philippines have increasingly drawn the ire of Beijing following closer cooperation with Canberra. In August, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles affirmed that Australia “has a security interest in the South China Sea and will work more closely with the Philippines on joint patrols.”
Tokyo, meanwhile, has also expressed growing concern about its neighbor to the West. Earlier this month, Japan and Australia agreed to tighten their bilateral defense ties by expanding joint operations and allowing troops to enter their respective countries. Under the new agreement, Japan also invited Australia to join two military exercises with the United States for the first time.
But increased cooperation between Australia and Japan has been met with more joint exercises between China and Russia. China, which lacks military bases facing the Sea of Japan, now routinely launches air patrols from Russian bases in Vladivostok. According to sources who spoke with this author on the condition of anonymity, Tokyo believes that Putin is reciprocating China’s support for his war in Ukraine by opening up more Russian military bases to China in the Far East.
Japanese leaders are also concerned about China’s ambitions in regard to Taiwan. In mid-September, China conducted live-fire drills simulating an attack on Taiwan, and Chinese jets routinely invade Taiwanese airspace.
One prominent Japanese newspaper recently declared, “Taiwan’s emergency is Japan’s emergency” – a sentiment that seems to be shared by political and military officials in Tokyo.
The threat to Taiwan has again underscored the importance of developing more joint U.S.-Japanese missile defense installations – something Biden has been reluctant to invest in. Biden has also neglected to fund a network of satellites that could prove decisive in countering a joint Russian-Chinese first strike on Japan and Taiwan.
Retired Vice Admiral Fumio Ota, the former director of Japan’s Defense Intelligence Agency, told this author, “More early warning satellites are needed over the Indo-Pacific to detect missile launches, and electronic reconnaissance satellites are needed to gather intelligence.”
“In turbulent times like today, more attention should be devoted to maintaining the service and exchange of satellites,” he continued. “It is a critical issue for America that also affects the Indo-Pacific.”
But Vice Admiral Ota says that Biden’s gravest mistake is his failure to continue former President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy. Biden’s National Security Strategy, published last year, notably contains the concept of “integrated deterrence,” but makes no mention of many of the pressure strategies advanced by President Trump.
Biden has, for instance, abandoned development of weapons like a new type of sea-launched nuclear cruise missile viewed by Trump and his military leadership as an effective deterrent against Chinese or Russian first strikes.
Australia and Japan share this judgment, and are also watching Biden appease Beijing further by compromising on Trump-era sanctions, even on things like microchips.
Amid this backdrop, Japan and Australia likely fear that nuclear deterrence may be their only option against China. With Biden facing serious turmoil at home and major conflicts in Ukraine and now Israel, the Indo-Pacific seems to be taking a back seat. That plays directly into China’s hands and leaves America’s democratic allies with good reason to fear the worst.
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
