AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman
A preliminary look at what might happen in the elections for the U.S. Senate in November 2024 appears promising for Republicans to regain control. But as predictions and expectations demonstrated in 2022, election forecasting can be a perilous undertaking.
The 2024 cycle reverses 2022, however, in that almost twice as many Democrat incumbent seats as Republican seats (22 to 12) will be on the ballot. In 2022, 23 GOP incumbent seats versus 11 for Democrats were at stake.
The 2022 results finished, however, with the net loss of only one Republican seat, although conservatives had anticipated gaining seats in a “red wave” that failed to materialize.
The 2024 cycle, unlike 2022, will also include the presidential contest, an event that is likely to shape to some degree down-ballot races for Congress and governors. That quadrennial contest looks to be a particularly inimitable event, with an 82-year-old incumbent possibly challenged for renomination within his own party, pitted against a 78-year-old former president who will be challenged for his nomination. Those confrontations, as of now, don’t even have a known cast of characters, and this further clouds the 2024 U.S Senate races.
One difference between the next and the previous cycles is that while there was a fairly equal number of races which were in play in 2022, the next cycle already has 8-10 vulnerable Democrat Senate seats, yet none of the GOP incumbent seats appear yet to be up for grabs. With 20 months before the election, however, this might change.
One Democrat, Senator Stabenow of Michigan, and one Republican, Senator Braun of Indiana, have already announced their retirements. Other retirements are quite possible, including Senator Feinstein of California. The Braun and Feinstein seats are not vulnerable, but the Stabenow seat is now in play. Additionally, Senator Sasse of Nebraska has resigned, but he was replaced by appointment with fellow Republican and former Governor Pete Ricketts, who is likely to win in 2024.
In Arizona, incumbent Kyrsten Sinema left the Democrat Party and is now technically an independent, but she continues to caucus with her old party. An Arizona congressman has said he will challenge her as a Democrat, but a three-way race would present a strong possibility for a GOP pick-up.
Incumbent Democrat Senator Jackie Rosen in Nevada is considered vulnerable if Republicans put up a strong candidate such as Adam Laxalt, who almost won in 2022.
Montana is heavily Republican, but Democrat Jon Tester has won there in the past. His seat is high on the list of GOP targets in the next election.
Virginia Democrat Senator Tim Kaine could face the popular Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who is term-limited, in 2024.
David McCormick, who almost won the 2022 GOP Senate nomination in Pennsylvania, is thinking of running against incumbent Democrat Bob Casey next cycle. Casey recently announced he has a serious medical condition, and could retire. McCormick would likely be formidable against any Democrat.
Wisconsin re-elected GOP Senator Ron Johnson in 2022, and a serious conservative could pose a serious challenge to incumbent Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin in 2024 if the presidential election has a popular GOP figure at the top of the ballot.
Senator Joe Manchin is the only remaining elected Democrat holding a statewide position in now heavily red West Virginia. It appears now that he will have a major GOP opponent in 2024. This will be another top Republican target pick-up race.
Ohio continues to be a heavily red state, and elected a new Republican senator in 2022. Incumbent liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown, as does his colleague Jon Tester in Montana, continues to win his re-elections in an otherwise conservative state, but could be vulnerable in 2024 if there is a strong Republican candidate.
Incumbent New Jersey Democrat Robert Menendez is not yet on most 2024 vulnerable lists, but he continues to be mired in controversies, and the 2021 state gubernatorial race was unexpectedly close. A serious Republican opponent could make this into a battleground contest.
Looking over the list of GOP Senate incumbents up for re-election, it is difficult to foresee any of them, even with retirements, facing a serious challenge in 2024, especially in a year with a competitive presidential race.
It is, of course, extremely unlikely that Democrats will lose all or most of their vulnerable seats, but with only the very narrow majority they now hold, a net pick-up of only 3-5 seats in 2024 would restore a solid conservative majority in the U.S. Senate.
The GOP has considerable work ahead to achieve victory in 2024. First and foremost, they need to recruit strong candidates who can successfully challenge vulnerable Democratic incumbents (something they often did not do in recent cycles). Secondly, they must choose a presidential candidate who will appeal to the critical independent voting bloc in battleground states. Third, they will need Democrats to continue failing to perform well in a volatile economy. Finally, they will need to master the new political campaign environment, something they did not effectively do in 2018, 2020, or 2022.
The Republican Party and its leaders are being given a rare opportunity to reverse the actions and policies of the Democrats which they so fervently oppose. They did not fully do this in the cycle just completed, and if they fall short again, they might not have a similar opportunity for a very long time.
