While all eyes are understandably trained on the contests for the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives, a number of other down-ballot races are nonetheless worth paying attention to on election night. As we’ve seen in recent years, state-level politics can sometimes have ramifications that trickle up to the national level. Here are a few races to keep your eye on.
Michigan Legislature
Democrats flipped both the state Senate and the state House of Representatives in Michigan in 2022, giving them a governing trifecta for the first time in nearly 40 years. Since then, the state’s liberal lawmakers have been on a far-left tear, passing laws to enact a Green New Deal-style mandate requiring that 100 percent of the state’s power come from “clean” energy sources by 2040, restrict gun ownership, repeal right-to-work laws, allow extreme late-term abortion, allow men in women’s locker rooms and restrooms, and remove important election security protections.
In short, in a state that has been politically purple for years, Governor Gretchen Whitmer and her legislative majorities have governed like far-left liberals in California or New York.
Now the question is how Michigan voters will react. Democrats hold a two-seat edge in both chambers, 20-18 in the Senate and 56-54 in the House. Either way, both races look like they will come down to just a few seats and could be a bellwether for how voters throughout the other key rust belt states might react to the past four years of liberal rule under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
Pennsylvania Legislature
After more than a decade of Republican control of both chambers of the Pennsylvania State Legislature, Democrats finally won control of the state House of Representatives in 2022. This year, the contests for the House and state Senate are expected to be some of the most competitive anywhere in the country.
Republicans currently have a 28-22 advantage in the state Senate, while Democrats hold a 102-100 edge in the state House.
Both parties are targeting competitive districts in areas like the Lehigh Valley, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre, where several open seats present opportunities for flips. The new district lines, established through recent redistricting, have created a more favorable map for Democrats in some suburban areas, but Republicans are focusing on rural and traditionally conservative districts where their base remains strong.
Republicans have also built a quiet fundraising advantage, with GOP candidates spending $4.5 million on paid advertisements to $1.4 million for Democrats. In these lower-profile races where neither candidate is typically well-known to voters, getting ads up on TV and investing in getting a candidate’s policy platform out to voters is especially important.
While conventional wisdom holds that presidential nominees help down-ballot candidates in their party, the reverse can sometimes also be true. If conservative voters are motivated to turn out to win back control of the state House and hold the state Senate, it could also help Donald Trump.
North Carolina Governor
With only 11 gubernatorial contests this year nationwide, North Carolina looks to be Republicans’ only chance for a pickup. Incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson is facing off against incumbent Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein to replace Democrat Roy Cooper, who is term limited.
Robinson’s campaign was recently rocked by a series of shocking allegations, which he has categorically denied. But polling averages now show Stein pulling ahead, and Robinson will have his work cut out for him to make up some ground by Election Day.
With solid Republican majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina state legislature, winning the governorship is a critical opportunity for the GOP to remove a major roadblock to conservative legislation. Cooper has notably vetoed bills to bolster election integrity and prevent men from accessing women’s restrooms and locker rooms.
New Hampshire Governor
Democrats’ best chance to flip a governor’s mansion is in New Hampshire, where former Republican U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte is squaring off against Democrat Joyce Craig, the former Mayor of Manchester. The incumbent governor, Republican Chris Sununu, who has at times irked conservatives by folding to pressure from the left on key issues, is not seeking re-election.
The latest Real Clear Politics average gives Ayotte a slim one-point lead, but polling has been relatively scarce in the race. Harris holds a solid lead over Trump in the state, but Granite Staters have a history of split-ticket voting, going for Clinton and Biden over Trump while also electing Sununu both years.
Republicans currently have a 14-10 edge in the state Senate and a 199-194 edge in the state House of Representatives and have won control of both chambers in five of the last seven cycles. As is the case in North Carolina, the outcome of the gubernatorial election could well decide whether Republicans have unified control of government or are stuck working around a Democrat governor.
Ohio Supreme Court
A total of 82 state Supreme Court seats are up for grabs this November, and three of the most important are in the Buckeye State.
Currently, Republicans hold a 4-3 majority on the court, but that could change if Democrats manage to flip seats. If all three GOP candidates are elected, Republicans would hold all but one seat on the bench, for a 6-1 majority. On the flip side, if all three Democrats win their elections, the Democrats would hold a 4-3 majority. The Ohio Supreme Court has been under Republican control since 1986.
The retirement of Republican Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor, who recently sided with Democrats in redistricting cases, has added to the stakes. Democrat Jennifer Brunner and Republican Sharon Kennedy are vying to replace her, and the outcome could shift the ideological balance of the court.
The Ohio Supreme Court will likely soon hear a number of high-profile cases on critical issues, including abortion, redistricting, and school choice that are currently making their way through lower courts. With Ohio’s new law requiring party labels on the ballot for judicial races, Republicans may have a slight edge, given the state’s overall political leanings, but as recent elections like those in Wisconsin have shown, Republicans can’t take anything for granted.
Texas Supreme Court
Six of Texas’s nine state supreme court seats are up for re-election this year. Although the court has historically been dominated by Republicans, and the GOP currently holds all nine seats, Texas Democrats are nonetheless spending big to pull off an upset as liberals continue to believe the Lone Star State is trending in their direction.
The races are expected to be contentious, with issues like voting rights, business regulations, and challenges to Republican-backed legislation likely to be critical topics. Texas has seen rising attention to judicial races in recent years, as the court’s influence in shaping statewide policies has grown. As both parties invest heavily in these elections, the outcomes could have far-reaching implications for Texas law and governance.
These likely won’t be the only down-ballot races to have outsized impact at the state and national levels in the years ahead. But as both parties focus on winning power in Washington, they shouldn’t forget that our country’s federalist system gives great importance to local races as well.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.
