A pattern has now been well-established: having lost the 2024 election, the majority of the popular vote, increasing percentages of their Hispanic, black, and working class voter base; and trailing Republicans in registering new voters, the Democrat Party and their media allies are desperately attempting to create good news and self-reassurance that their political fortunes are now reversed in their favor.
The special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District earlier this month is the latest example of this trend.
Prior to this contest, there was a concentrated effort to frame the 2025 off-year elections in November as a sign of a left-of-center resurgence. But as I pointed out in the immediate aftermath of those contests, the cities and states in which they took place were largely areas of the Democrats’ strength. While good news for urban progressives, the November results provided no convincing evidence of a resurgence for the liberal party.
Before the Tennessee vote, the media was filled with talk of an upset in the solid GOP district, climaxing with an ostensibly serious poll that claimed the race was virtually tied. Breathless pundits declared a possible political earthquake in a district that Donald Trump carried by 20 points.
This poll tactic was reminiscent of the notorious Des Moines Register poll in 2024, which showed Kamala Harris virtually tied in Iowa close to Election Day. Ultimately, Trump won the Hawkeye State by more than 13 points. In fact, Trump outperformed his polling in every swing state and also won previously competitive states like Florida and Ohio by double digits.
Democrats poured millions of dollars into TN-7, but the Republican candidate, West Point graduate Matt Van Epps, won the open seat by nearly ten points. It was half of Trump’s 2024 margin, but it was an off-year election, and President Trump was not on the ballot.
That is not to say that a resurgence for the Democrats in 2026 or 2028 is not possible. A Democrat win or even a very close race in TN-7 would have been a valid signal. Returning inflation, a stock market crash, and other severe economic hardships would be bad news for Republicans next year or in 2028. Without President Trump on the ballot in the next presidential election, GOP prospects are not yet clearly positive.
But it will take more than dubious polls and dire establishment (pro-Democrat) media hype to signal that the conservative trend of U.S. politics is being reversed.
In fact, although several Trump initiatives are not yet complete, they have clearly been successful. Many of the President’s policies have been welcomed by voters across the country, including securing the border and halting illegal immigration, restoring tax cuts, stabilizing inflation, and strengthening Medicare and Social Security by rooting out fraudulent claims.
Although prospects currently look good for keeping control of the U.S. Senate next year, Republican control of the U.S. House is now up in the air. A very few more early GOP retirements could mean that Republicans lose the gavel even before next November.
Divisiveness from rogue Republicans who intend to thwart the administration and its leaders from fulfilling the voter mandate given to the GOP in 2024 could also contribute to defeat ahead.
A national midterm Republican convention, proposed by President Trump, is one of the many events that might help turn out conservative voters next year. So would a strong voter ID program early in 2026, followed by a comprehensive get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effort in all competitive races.
The key to avoiding defeat for Republicans in 2026 is early participation by the national party in competitive races. Providing voter ID, staffing, funds for ads, and GOTV for competitive races as early as possible is the only serious way to treat a key election.
Complacency in the 2026 midterm election invites unanswered fake news from the opposition and defeat.
Herald Boas is a contributor to AMAC Newsline.
