Revolutions can be good. Like the one that erupted in 1776 and gave us America.
Others, not so much.
The Russia Revolution of 1917 brought us the Soviet Union, the Warsaw Pact, gulags, the Holomodor, and the Cold War, which although it may have been “cold,” still resulted in the deaths of 100 million innocent people.
As a result, last weekend’s “news” about thousands of mercenaries heading to Moscow to take over the government from Vladimir Putin was disturbing, to say the least.
But not everything was as it may, at first blush, seem.
Ostensibly, the crisis started prior to last weekend, when units of the Private Military Contractor, the Wagner Group, became mired in a minefield in Ukraine, a minefield laid by Russian Federal forces. And when Wagner asked for help to extricate their fighters, allegedly the regular Russian forces shelled and fired rockets at Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner CEO’s units. Thus were sown the seeds of a broader conflict between the mercenary firm and the government in Moscow for which they were fighting.
All this came after months of accusations flung back and forth that the Russian Ministry of Defense wasn’t supporting and resupplying Prigozhin’s mercenaries, especially during the brutal battle to take and hold the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, and the minefield incident was apparently the last straw.
As a result, the former restauranteur ordered his men to pull out of the warzone that is Ukraine and head for the Russian capital.
But was it really to replace the regime?
As Winston Churchill warned us, Russia is “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” Add to that, Viscount Slim’s wise rule that tells us all initial reports from the battlefield are wrong, and we should dig deeper for the Truth.
Why it just doesn’t add up:
Firstly, there’s the numbers thing.
Yes the current state of the Russia Federation’s military capabilities is depleted – especially after more than a year of Ukraine’s valiant efforts to wrest back their sovereignty from Moscow’s invaders – yet the fact remains that the nation still counts more than a million men in uniform. Not to mention the more than 2 million reservists, plus the newly created National Guard, established by Putin and directly subordinated to him for use in exactly such an eventuality as a real coup.
The Wagner Group, on the other hand, can count on an absolute maximum of 25,000 blood-thirsty fighters, many of them ex-cons released to become front-line berserkers who could execute deniable missions for the Kremlin.
Yes, they’re evil, vicious, and loyal to their chef-turned commander, but 25,000 against over a million, or 3 million if all Federal forces are mobilized? Are we positing that Prigozhin – and all his men – are suicidal?
Secondly, the language of the putative coup was, let’s just say “strange.”
If you’re moving militarily on the capital, then it’s clear you are trying to effect a regime change, the decapitation of the existing old guard. But Prigozhin’s militant statements failed to include one name: Putin. The official pronouncements flung invective at the Minster of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. Did Prigozhin really believe he could take on the might of the Russian Military and Putin would be fine with that? That he would just watch? Or was there another reason the President wasn’t targeted by name?
Secondly, why did Wagner suddenly stand down?
If the mercenary forces had truly been so successful that they had captured a regional command center and made their way across the administrative line of Moscow Oblast in just 2 days – as the corporate media so breathlessly re-reported – why the sudden volte face, and the decision to withdraw?
If you’re winning, you’re winning, right? And if you’re winning and the “enemy” had made zero concessions, you really shouldn’t just turn around and run away.
Then there’s Putin’s response to the “coup” and the location of Wagner units today.
Despite the world being told that this was “banditry” and “a crime against the state,” with the blockades still smoldering, Putin declared that the members of the units which made a move against Moscow would not be prosecuted. More than strange. Why would the man who thinks nothing of having journalists murdered and disloyal intelligence officers poisoned with polonium suddenly say coup-plotters go scot-free? It makes no sense. None.
Then we come to the whereabouts of Pregozhin’s mutinous mercenaries.
Apparently the Wagner Group’s failed revolutionaries are all now in Belarussia, being protected by the none other than Alexander Lukashenko.
Now most people will have no idea where Belarussia is (if they know it’s even a real place), let alone anything about its President. But if you want to judge whether or not what we have been hearing out of Eastern Europe about this supposed coup is credible, it is essential to know at least this: Alexander Lukashenko is an even worse human being than the former KGB colonel Putin.
An unreconstructed dictator, he rules the former Soviet Republic with an iron fist and has wholly subordinated that nation to the needs and desire of his “Big Brother” in the Kremlin. Ask yourself one question: why would Vladimir Putin’s most loyal lackey harbor and protect those who tried to violently remove him?
What really happened last weekend? That’s impossible to divine right now.
However, if you’re a paranoid President who feels threatened by those around you but are unsure who’s loyal and who’s a potential traitor, what better way to smoke out your hidden enemies than to ask a loyal subordinate to stage a fake coup and see who decides to join in, or simply to do nothing?
In the meantime, just remember Churchill’s words about Russia.
Sebastian Gorka Ph.D. is host of SALEM Radio’s AMERICA First and The Gorka Reality Check on NEWSMAX TV. A former Strategist to President Donald Trump, he is a member of the National Security Education Board of the Pentagon. His latest book is The War for America’s Soul. Follow him on his SubStack page and website. another