AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris
Earlier this week, New Hampshire became the last state in the country to adopt a redistricting plan after the state Supreme Court voted to approve a map drawn by a court-appointed special master. The decision concludes an embarrassing saga for Republican Governor Chris Sununu after he vetoed two maps drawn by the Republican-controlled state legislature – just the latest example of Sununu seeming to work at every turn to block the advancement of conservative interests in the Granite State.
Despite New Hampshire generally being a battleground state in presidential and statewide elections, all four members of the state’s Congressional delegation—two House members and two Senators—are Democrats, and a Republican has not won a U.S. House or Senate seat there since 2014. Following a census year, Republicans were thus understandably eager to draw new maps that might create more parity in Congressional elections and provide more opportunity for strong candidates to represent the interests of conservative New Hampshire residents in Congress. With a Republican majority in the state legislature and a Republican in the governor’s mansion, it seemed the conditions were ripe for just such a victory.
But Governor Chris Sununu had other ideas. In March, he vetoed a map drawn by the state legislature that would have created one likely Republican district and one likely Democratic district in the state. The map just “doesn’t pass the smell test” he proclaimed at the time, just days before introducing his own map that would have cemented the incumbency advantage for both Democratic Reps. Chris Pappas and Annie Kuster. Pappas even took the step of openly supporting Sununu’s map – hardly a welcome sign for Republican challengers hoping to unseat him this fall.
Sununu’s veto sent lawmakers in the state back to the drawing board, where they drew another map that by all accounts should have assuaged the Governor’s stated concerns. The new map was objectively more compact than even the original map, and was far from the absurd-looking gerrymanders being drawn in other states like New York or Illinois.
But Sununu again shot the map down, sending it back to the legislature with his veto stamp. His reasoning this time? The new plan would have moved Manchester, the home of Chris Pappas, into the 2nd District along with Kuster’s hometown of Hopkinton.
According to Sununu, this made the map “unfair” – never mind the fact that U.S. House members don’t have to live in the district in which they run, and that no requirement in any law on the books prohibits the legislature from moving the hometown of one incumbent member into the district of another. In fact, such circumstances arise in nearly every redistricting cycle in other larger states, and are simply a fact of life for those members.
In vetoing the second map, Sununu punted the decision to the state Supreme Court, which took over the process, citing a “demonstrated impasse” as a result of the Governor’s vetoes. On Tuesday, the Court adopted a map drawn by a special master tasked with redrawing the original map with as few changes as possible to reflect population shifts. In effect, the entire debacle will end up as a win for Sununu, as the map he drew back in March was not all that dissimilar from the final map approved by the Court. The status quo will largely remain unchanged, and Republicans will still have longer than necessary odds of securing any Congressional seat in New Hampshire this November.
But even with the redistricting ordeal over, there remains the puzzling question of why Governor Sununu went to such lengths seemingly to protect Democratic incumbents, even to the point of twice vetoing legislation passed by a legislative body controlled by his own party. In both cases, Sununu seemed to be grasping for any rationale to oppose the measures, in the end simply resorting to the bald assertion that the second Republican map was “unfair” and that “the citizens of New Hampshire will not accept [the map].”
But just which citizens is Sununu referring to? With any decision made by elected officials, people of one political persuasion are likely to be pleased, while those of the opposite political persuasion are likely to be displeased. It was the voters of New Hampshire who elected a Republican legislature and a Republican governor. Presumably they would not have been incensed by the creation of a more competitive House district. Why should Republicans in New Hampshire accept the Court-drawn map after the Governor vetoed the map drawn by their elected representatives in the state legislature?
The conventional wisdom among GOP insiders is that Sununu is hoping to avoid the appearance of being too partisan in the purple state – potentially in preparation for a 2024 presidential bid.
If that is indeed the case, Sununu may do better to follow the lead of someone like Governor Glenn Youngkin in Virginia – a Republican leader of a far more left-leaning state who, instead of trying to play both sides, is unabashedly governing according to conservative principles and trusting that the voters of his state will support him. Currently, all Sununu is likely doing is alienating voters of his own party while failing to convince anyone else, Democrat or Independent, to support him or any other Republican.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @Shane_Harris_