AMAC EXCLUSIVE
Although general election polling in Maine has remained relatively scarce in comparison to swing states in the Midwest and across the Sun Belt, some indicators suggest Biden has reason for concern there. But Maine Democrats, confident in Biden’s strength in the state, are nonetheless considering changes to how the state allocates its electoral votes in a bid to ostensibly help Biden this November.
Specifically, Democrats, led by Maine House Minority Leader Maureen Terry, are threatening to change the electoral vote distribution in the state. Currently, Maine allocates two of its four electoral votes to the statewide winner, and awards one electoral vote to the winner in each of its two U.S. House districts.
The move is in direct response to recent efforts in Nebraska – the only other state that also divides its Electoral College votes – to also move to a winner-take-all system. Though Nebraska has historically been a reliably deep red state, in previous cycles Democrat candidates have captured one of the Cornhusker State’s five electoral votes thanks to the political influence of Omaha, often described as a blue dot in a sea of red, in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
In recent history, Maine has been reliably Democrat, with the liberal party winning statewide there since 1992. Democrats have also won both congressional district votes since 1992, except when Donald Trump carried the state’s more rural 2nd District in 2016 and 2020.
Nevertheless, a Critical Insights poll conducted in October has Joe Biden up only one point statewide, while a February poll conducted by Pan Atlantic has Biden trailing Donald Trump 32 percent to 38 percent—a shocking margin considering that Biden carried the state by nearly nine points in 2020.
The same polls show Trump leading in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District by 14 and 20 points, respectively— signaling deep trouble for the Biden camp after Trump carried the district by just 7.7 points in 2020.
Moreover, Biden is leading in Maine’s 1st Congressional District, bolstered by the liberal stronghold of Portland, by only 8 to 16 points, which are strikingly low numbers compared to his nearly 23-point victory in 2020.
These major polling shifts raise two crucial—and potentially election-defining—questions. First, by how large of a margin can Biden lose Maine’s 2nd Congressional District and still win the statewide vote? Second, how close does Trump need it to be in the 1st Congressional District to have a shot at winning statewide?
Though some pundits may dismiss the notion that Maine’s two at-large electoral votes (and potentially all four if Terry has her way) could be in serious contention in November—particularly given the lack of recent polling in the state—a close race in Maine is not without historical precedent.
In 2016, for instance, Hillary Clinton edged out Donald Trump in the statewide vote by a mere 2.9 points. And given that the two most recent polls conducted in the Pine Tree State have Biden polling between 32 and 36 percent and trailing Trump by as much as six points, it is not far-fetched to predict that Trump could eke out a statewide victory.
Of course, the two electoral votes granted by Maine’s statewide vote may not seem significant or otherwise worth pining over at first glance. But in one very possible electoral scenario, they could determine the outcome of the election at large.
In one hypothetical electoral map, in which Biden carries the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (as well as the one electoral vote granted by Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District) and Trump carries the swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina (in addition to Maine’s 2nd District), the election would be deadlocked at a 268-268 electoral tie and come down to the two electoral points awarded by Maine’s statewide vote.
If polling is correct and Biden does indeed lose Maine’s 2nd Congressional District by 20 points while Trump narrows Biden’s statewide margin in the 1st District, Trump could be poised to carry the statewide vote and win the Electoral College 270-268.
Although other scenarios may be more likely—especially considering Trump’s consistent polling leads in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—Maine presents just one more potential path for Trump to win a second term in the White House this fall. Moreover, it goes to show that every electoral vote matters—and no state can be taken for granted.
It also shows the potential unintended consequences of Maine Democrats’ efforts to change how the state awards electoral votes. While Terry believes the move will hand one more electoral vote to Biden, it could end up handing a crucial vote to Trump.
As campaign season continues to ramp up and the battle for control of the White House escalates over the next six months, much of the media’s attention will rightly be focused on traditional swing states in the Midwest and Sun Belt. But even though Maine fails to elicit the same national attention as bellwethers like Arizona, Georgia, or Michigan, polling data makes clear that it ought not to be overlooked.
Aaron Flanigan is the pen name of a writer in Washington, D.C.
