AMAC EXCLUSIVE
With just over six months to go until Election Day, Republican Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake is being outraised and outspent by her Democrat opponent, Congressman Ruben Gallego, by a 2-1 margin. But Lake, a former television news anchor, has refused to give up the fight, and may yet pull out a victory this November.
With Democrat-turned-Independent Kyrsten Sinema electing to not run for re-election in the Copper State this year, the liberal money machine has poured immense resources into holding the seat. Gallego, a former Marine originally from Chicago, has spent $4.5 million on the race so far and has an additional $9.6 million on hand to flood the airwaves in the final months of the race.
Lake, meanwhile, has spent $2.4 million and has just over $2.5 million in the bank.
Despite Gallego’s clear money advantage, the race remains within reach for Lake. The latest RealClearPolitics polling average has Gallego with a six-point lead, but he appears to be trending in the wrong direction. An Emerson poll from February found Gallego to have a seven-point edge, while the same pollster reported just a two-point lead for Gallego a month later.
Republicans are eager for a turnaround in Arizona following a series of setbacks in recent years. After the GOP presidential nominee carried Arizona in every election since 2000, Biden eked out a victory there by just over 10,000 votes in 2020 (notably amid serious questions about election integrity).
This year, Arizona’s 11 electoral votes are again a top target for both candidates. In a closely contested race, there are several scenarios where Arizona could prove decisive.
Democrats have also seen a turnaround in their Senate fortunes in Arizona in recent years. In 2018, Sinema won the race to replace the retiring Republican Jeff Flake. Two years later, Democrat Mark Kelly defeated Republican Martha McSally, who was appointed to fill the seat of the late John McCain. In 2022, Kelly won re-election to a full six-year term.
Republicans also saw disappointing results in other statewide races two years ago – as Lake knows well. She was the GOP nominee for governor, coming up just over 17,000 votes short against Democrat Katie Hobbs. Democrats also won all but two statewide offices after Republicans controlled every office as recently as 2016.
A significant factor hampering GOP success in Arizona has been the disconnect between the state’s elected Republicans and conservative voting base. Flake and McCain were both notorious for opposing conservative priorities in the Senate, earning the ire of Republican voters in Arizona and throughout the country. McCain infamously cast the deciding vote to kill the effort to repeal Obamacare. Flake, meanwhile, joined with Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska to put wind in the sails of the Democrat effort to smear Justice Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearing.
With these two senators hopelessly out of step with rank-and-file Republican voters, a significant number of Republicans in Arizona switched their party affiliation to “independent.” The resulting lack of voter enthusiasm became a major crisis for Arizona Republican candidates that the party is still dealing with today.
However, despite the seeming leftward trend of the state, there are signs that Republicans are well-positioned for a resurgence this year. Former President Donald Trump currently leads Joe Biden by five points in Arizona in the latest RealClearPolitics average. Moreover, not only has Lake kept the race competitive despite the financial shortfalls, but last month the GOP reemerged as the top party for registered voters.
Issue polling also shows that Democrat policies are deeply unpopular with Arizona voters. A February survey found that “the cost of living” is the top issue for Arizonans, with 83 percent saying it is a “serious problem.” Another poll from Noble Predictive Insights found voters’ top issue to be immigration, followed closely by inflation.
Additionally, Arizona is still struggling under the weight of a major crime wave. A recent study found that Phoenix was the worst city in the country for illicit drug use, specifically cocaine and meth – a crisis directly exacerbated by the open border.
For Lake, tying Gallego to his votes for Biden’s trillion-dollar spending bills and open-borders policies will be key to success this fall. While Gallego is now attempting to recast himself as a pragmatic moderate, his actual voting record says otherwise.
So far, Lake has leaned into this strategy, focusing her campaign on what voters are most concerned about.
Gallego, meanwhile, has leaned heavily into the abortion issue, accusing Lake of trying to ban all abortions across the state. While abortion has received significant national media focus, polling suggests that Arizona voters are more concerned with the economy and the border. Following an Arizona Supreme Court decision that the state must enforce an 1864 law banning all abortions except when the life of the mother is at stake, Lake has called for “common-sense” legislation that brings the law more in line with where most Arizona voters stand.
Gallego’s funding advantage will certainly be a challenge for Lake to overcome. But with Biden’s poor poll numbers and Democrat policies growing ever more unpopular, Lake may just be poised to pull off a historic underdog victory.
Andrew Shirley is a veteran speechwriter and AMAC Newsline columnist. His commentary can be found on X at @AA_Shirley.
