Despite two disappointing results in recent elections in France and Britain, European conservatives nonetheless have reason for optimism looking forward. Just as former President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda started a revolt against the liberal establishment in the United States, citizen sentiment in Europe is brewing a conservative rejection of leftism across the Atlantic. Conservatives advocate for a fiscally responsible, citizen-controlled minimum government, while their opponents defend the old model where ruling elites negotiate and usually put citizen’s interests aside.
After a strong showing in the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on June 30, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party appeared poised to lead conservatives to power for the first time in decades. But a sudden late surge from New Popular Front (NFP), a coalition of left-wing parties, in the final round of voting on July 7 has left the country with a hung parliament, likely meaning Macron and his liberal allies will retain control.
Across the English Channel in Britain, meanwhile, the liberal Labour Party won a landslide victory, ending 14 years of rule by the center-right Conservative Party.
But even beneath these seemingly dour headlines, there were reasons for optimism.
In Britain, the conservative Reform U.K. Party, led by Brexit champion and strong Trump ally Nigel Farage, amassed a surprising 14 percent of the vote, although it was distributed such that the party won only four seats. Following the results, Farage said his plan is “to build a mass national movement over the course of the next few years and hopefully be big enough to challenge the general election properly in 2029.”
In France, though RN failed to win the most seats, it nonetheless increased its overall number of seats from 89 to 143 – a stunning ascendency for a party that won just two seats in 2012. Conservatives, and specifically conservatives modeled after Trump’s brand of populist nationalism, are now in a stronger position in France than any time in recent history.
Moreover, according to French news outlet Le Figaro, voters aged 25-34 made up half of the RN’s voting base. By comparison, less than one percent of that age group voted for the party in 2002.
Retired Political Science professor Ludovici Gagneux, who advised the conservative French Rally for the Republic Party on families and youth policies in the late 1980s, told me in an interview that these results reflect the fact that “the young generation feels betrayed and abandoned, noticing that interest groups benefit from climate change policies while everything around them deteriorates.” Alain de Benoist, another French academic, also told me that young people are “hostile to the ruling elites.”
This noteworthy development runs counter to the traditional pattern of voters being more liberal in their youth but becoming more conservative with age – a reversal that also appears to be underway in the United States. According to some polls, Trump is now leading Biden among voters aged 30 and under, a result that, if accurate, would represent a stunning turnaround after Biden handily won this demographic in 2020.
Looking at the situation in both Europe and the United States, it’s easy to see why so many voters, and young people in particular, feel disaffected.
Massive spending on liberal priorities, most notably fomenting the “green” revolution and endless welfare, has led to stubborn inflation, stagnant growth, and skyrocketing cost of living. Eurostat, a key source of financial data for the continent, has reported that the debt-to-GDP ratio for the entire European Union climbed above 81 percent in 2023 – a figure that most economists agree is unsustainable. In some countries, including Belgium and France, that figure is more than 100 percent.
In addition to sinking their countries into debt, the liberal establishment in Europe has also driven away industry, killing jobs and economic opportunity. According to the International Energy Agency, there was a 52 percent cut in industrial energy demand from 2021 to 2022, signifying just how drastic Europe’s industrial collapse has been. Dr. Jürg Uwe Holzknecht, an industrial economist who advised Austria’s Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel, told me in an interview that plant shutdowns and production cutbacks “resulted from unreliable supply due to green policies, leading to irreversible job losses.”
On the immigration front, European elites in the E.U., supported by liberals in member nations, have for decades favored mass migration as part of a scheme to eliminate borders. Unsurprisingly, more than half of all Europeans now say they have a negative view of the E.U.’s immigration policies.
Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi warned against the threat of unchecked migration back in 1993, cautioning that “like the Soviet Union, Brussels would create an angry and discontented populace.” As Professor Gagneux told me, E.U. elites then “called him a populist and persecuted him with judicial abuse like Trump,” but now he is being proven exactly correct.
Despite the recent setbacks for conservatives, all of these factors are still very much at play throughout the continent today, and right-of-center leaders still have an historic opportunity to reclaim ground from liberals.
Current Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whom many view as the heiress to Berlusconi’s legacy, is a prime example of how a leader can harness the discontent over failed liberal policies to bring about positive change.
For instance, Meloni responded to the illegal immigration crisis with her Mattei Plan, which aims to work with African nations, the origin point for many illegal aliens, to stop crossings. As a result, in the first half of 2024 Italy reduced illegal immigration by 60 percent compared to the same period in 2023.
Additionally, Meloni instituted a five percent tax cut on products for women and babies, delivered financial assistance for families, and reduced energy prices.
All of these policies were aimed directly at addressing the failures of liberal rule, and voters have responded. In the European Union parliamentary elections on June 10, Meloni’s Brothers of Italy group came in first with 28.8 percent of the vote, more than four times its share in 2019. She will now head a ruling coalition of right-of-center parties that won 47 percent of the vote.
“Italians see that Meloni’s party has the national interest at heart,” Dr. Holzknecht told me. “She has shown that one can look forward to the future while preserving Western roots rather than creating a new identity imported from another world.”
The influence of Trump’s America First agenda on Meloni is clear. When a journalist asked her what “Melonism” means, she replied, “Pursuing Italy’s interest first, always and in any case.”
The reality of electoral politics and shifting voter sympathies is that transitions on a national or continent-wide scale are rarely smooth. As conservatives look to regain lost ground in Europe, there are sure to be bumps and setbacks along the way.
The important thing is that the new wave of conservative leaders continues to fearlessly expose the failures of the establishment class and fight for the traditional values that voters have entrusted them to uphold.
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
