Brains will continue to spin as this election cycle makes history, taking the extremes of past elections, political conventions, media hype, and truth-twisting to new heights – the first time a candidate with all the delegates quits, the first time a candidate is arrested, prosecuted, convicted, nearly assassinated, yet stronger, and first time for … what next?
That is the pivotal question, what next? In military intelligence, we often “red-teamed” possible futures, meaning we try to think about the range of things we should be prepared to confront, from likely to less likely, and have a plan. This is how the GOP should be thinking now.
What could happen?
First, any number of political combinations could materialize from the fractured, confused, dissembling, and – yes – “caught red-handed” Democrat leadership. The GOP could face Harris and a cast of thousands, or a fresh ticket entirely.
Second, they could have their scheduled “virtual convention” on August 7th, which would amount to the first round, maybe second or more round of voting – a sleight-of-hand originally intended to lock Biden-Harris in before the floor convention on August 19-20, or they could bag that trick, cancel it.
Third, they could try to preserve more than 200 million in donor money, spur fresh donor money, by nominating Harris, then open the floor – virtual or actual – to some kind of beauty contest for the VP slot, in effect making clear that Harris is not in charge, the big donors are.
Alternately, they could invite March Madness in August, and just open the entire convention floor to opportunities to showcase all options, go to dozens of ballots if necessary to distill a new presidential candidate, or new vice president, and then transfer much of their “Biden-Harris” money to one or more political action committees, which would then support the new ticket.
Fourth, time is now of the essence. What is usually a year-and-a-half process, allowing a good look at all options, has now been telescoped for Democrats – and for Republicans who must pivot, vet, and beat the new ticket – down to about two months, since the selection process will take one.
Fifth, the whole election dynamic will now take on a strange two-track quality, with Democrats scrambling to catch up to Trump, especially after the assassination attempt, vilify him while not pushing violence; at the same time, they must introduce, showcase, and promote a new team.
Sixth, the Biden team is now internally in disarray, with many preparing to bail, seek new jobs before peers, others likely to cling to Harris and some new running mate, and others picking another horse.
Perhaps most interestingly the entire Biden defender class – Democrats who knew the truth and told a different story about this ailing president – has been outed as deceivers, whatever they say.
This will have the tendency to create cynics of many Independent and Democrat donors and voters, further imperiling Democrat candidates, up and down the ticket, from federal to local contenders.
Widening the camera aperture, or zooming out, the international environment may become suddenly more volatile, if that is possible. Having opened up huge security gaps, and produced inconceivable failures in Afghanistan, Ukraine, the Middle East, and on the US border, things could potentially grow more uneasy, for example, if China, Iran, North Korea, Russia, or non-state actors think this is their chance to destabilize their corner of the world or ours.
All of this means, to borrow again on military thinking, the GOP needs to be thinking ahead, working through continencies – likely to unlikely – and putting plans in place to flex with them.
Going back to Roman politics, first century AD, specifically to Pliny the Elder, we are reminded that, as he laconically put it: “In these matters, the only certainty is that nothing is certain.”
That is why, using the wildest imaginations, best contingency planning, and strongest “red teaming,” the GOP should be ready, put all possibilities on paper, and take nothing for granted. The Boy Scouts used it first, but the best motto for the GOP is this brain-spinning cycle: Be Prepared.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.
