Five months out from Election Day, Joe Biden and Democrat candidates are already fighting an uphill electoral battle. But in the coming months, there are several factors that could even further tilt the odds against them.
Here are four political powder kegs that could blow up on the Democrats and increase the prospect for Republican victories this November.
Donald Trump’s New York Trial
Earlier this year, many left-wing pundits and Democrat political operatives falsely assumed that Alvin Bragg’s prosecution of Donald Trump would serve as a tactical victory for Biden and rallying cry for Democrat voters.
But following a highly controversial guilty verdict in that case last week, the polling has remained virtually unchanged, and it seems most voters recognize the trial as the political hit job that it was. Instead of convincing the American people that Donald Trump is a criminal, the trial now looks more likely to convince them that Democrats have weaponized the justice system in a desperate attempt to cling to power.
The trial could backfire even more on Democrats if the judge in the case – whom legal scholars on both sides of the aisle have criticized for his bias and blatant disregard for the law – sentences Trump to prison time. The appearance of a Democrat judge and prosecutor conspiring to place Democrats’ top political rival behind bars months before an election would supercharge the brewing backlash to the left’s lawfare.
Even if Trump doesn’t receive jail time, the sentencing hearing on July 11 could become a pyrrhic victory for the left by serving as a rallying point for Republicans, Independents, and even disaffected Democrats fed up with the obvious corruption and dishonesty of the crusade to “get Trump.”
Biden’s Sympathy for Hamas
For decades, there has been a broad bipartisan tradition of supporting the state of Israel—America’s most important Middle East ally. In recent months, however, Biden has instead turned to criticizing Israel while courting terrorist sympathizers and the most radical anti-Israel voices in the United States. But do Democrats really expect large segments of persuadable voters to sympathize with Hamas terrorists over one of our nation’s most longstanding allies?
By every indication, voters are not on the same page as the White House. A recent poll found that 80 percent of Americans support Israel over Hamas in the Gaza conflict. Americans also watched as Biden winked and nodded at far-left anti-Israel protesters on college campuses—even though polling data shows that 53 percent of voters disapprove of how college campuses have handled the protests (including 57 percent of Independents, 62 percent of Republicans, and 41 percent of Democrats).
Whether or not the Biden team can manage to mask his party’s anti-Israel extremism enough to reassure voters that the Democrat Party has not been hijacked by left-wing radicals remains to be seen. But as convention season approaches and Americans brace for a summer of even more left-wing chaos, Democrats should know that voters will not forget Biden’s abandonment of Israel and overtures to Hamas supporters at home.
Biden Administration’s Title IX Overhaul
Earlier this year, the Biden administration quietly issued a new series of Title IX regulations that, effective this August, will allow transgender-identifying men to enter women’s bathrooms and locker rooms, receive women’s scholarships, and live in women’s dorm rooms. The rules will also compel students and faculty to use the “preferred pronouns” of transgender-identifying individuals.
The regulations specifically prohibit discrimination on the basis of “gender identity”—obliterating any legal distinction between men and women and empowering transgender-identifying individuals to sue anyone for harassment if they dare to dissent.
Given that these rules are set to take effect as families will be preparing to send their children back to school for the start of the new academic year, Democrats have reason for concern. As parents begin to realize that their children’s schools have now been forced into service of transgender ideology and radical gender theory, Joe Biden and the Democrats who backed him could be in for a reckoning.
Terrorist Cells at the Southern Border
Thanks to the Biden administration’s eradication of nearly every sensible border security measure enacted by President Donald Trump, the southern border is becoming the next hotspot for terrorism and political violence—especially as war rages in the Middle East and Hezbollah and Hamas seek to harm the United States.
According to a September report released by Biden’s own Department of Homeland Security (DHS) analyzing the “Homeland Threat Assessment” for fiscal year 2024, “[t]errorists and criminal actors may exploit the elevated flow and increasingly complex security environment to enter the United States.”
The report further notes that “individuals with potential terrorism connections continue to attempt to enter the Homeland” as the border crisis rages—a shocking admission that has elicited little public acknowledgement from Democrats or White House officials.
Notably, large swaths of illegal aliens entering the U.S. through the southern border are not from Mexico, but instead from countries with major security concerns in the Middle East and Asia. In southern California, for instance, Fox News correspondent Bill Melugin found groups of military-aged males from nations like Iran, Pakistan, China, Turkey, India, and Bangladesh—raising significant security concerns.
If, God forbid, there is a terrorist attack or major terrorist scare in the United States before Election Day, blame would fall squarely on Joe Biden and the Democrats who supported his open borders policies.
Whether or not these issues ultimately blow up on the left in the final stretch of the campaign remains to be seen. But regardless, Democrats are playing with fire—and could be in for a rude awakening.
Aaron Flanigan is the pen name of a writer in Washington, D.C.
