While the battles for control of the Senate and White House have drawn the most attention this year, which party takes control of the U.S. House of Representatives next January – and how big their majority is – will also have far-reaching implications for the future direction of the country.
With just over five weeks to go until Election Day, who has the edge in the race for the House remains cloudy. But a few states are emerging as critically important battlegrounds where each presidential candidate’s performance could boost down-ballot candidates over the top.
According to the Cook Political Report, 192 House seats are considered solid Republicans, while 174 are solid Democrats. Another 10 and 16 are likely Republican and likely Democrat, respectively, while 6 are lean Republican and 13 are lean Democrat.
That leaves 24 toss-up races where both parties will compete to reach the magic 218 number – 11 currently held by Democrats, 13 currently held by Republicans. If the leans hold, Republicans need to win 10 of 24 toss-ups to retain their majority, while Democrats need to win 15 of 24 to claim the Speaker’s gavel.
Just as was the case in 2022, New York looks to be one of the most important states in determining control of the House. House Republicans had an overall net gain of nine seats two years ago. A big part of that was thanks to four flips by Republicans in the Empire State alone – the 3rd, 4th, 17th, and 19th Districts.
Of those four seats, NY-04, NY-17, and NY-19 are rated as toss-ups this year. The other, NY-03, is rated as Likely Democrat. Additionally, NY-18 and NY-22 are both Lean Democrat, while NY-01 is rated as Likely Republican, for a total of seven New York seats considered “in play” this cycle.
The only state with more “in play” seats is California, with 10 – including five seats currently held by Republicans rated as toss-ups. In 2022, the GOP’s ability to hang on to most of the seats they picked up in the Golden State in 2020 while flipping two Democrat districts also played a crucial role in winning back the House majority.
Both California and New York will almost surely be easy victories for Vice President Kamala Harris this November. But how much former President Donald Trump can cut into Joe Biden’s margin from 2020 could be a strong indicator of which party can win these hotly contested House seats.
In 2020, Biden won New York by 23 points, and he won California by 29 points. According to the latest RealClearPolitics polling averages, however, Harris leads by just 13 points in New York and by 24 points in California. Those numbers should make Republicans optimistic about their chances in close contests in House races, particularly if they embrace Trump’s agenda and tie their opponents to the unpopular extreme liberal policies of the Biden-Harris administration.
As AMAC CEO Rebecca Weber explained in a piece for the New York Post earlier this month, New York has been on the front lines of the border and inflation crises over the past four years, giving Republican candidates plenty of ammunition to throw at their Democrat opponents. Kamala Harris’s home state of California has also been a ground zero for failed liberal policies, and Golden State voters have every incentive to reject them at the ballot box – if Republicans can make that argument.
Outside of New York and California, four presidential swing states also have toss-up House races. Arizona has two (the 1st and 6th districts, both being defended by Republicans), Michigan has two (the 7th and 8th districts, both open but previously held by Democrats), Pennsylvania has two (the 7th and 8th districts, both being defended by Democrats), and North Carolina has one (the first district, being defended by a Democrat).
All the attention on these states in the presidential contest will likely influence the outcome of these House races as well. If Trump wins all or most of these states, Republicans have a good chance of winning these close House races. The same is true for Harris.
Of course, as is the case every cycle, there will likely be some surprises and upsets in both directions that will additionally affect the balance of power in the House. With control of the chamber coming down to just a few races in both 2022 and 2020, victories like Republican Michael Lawler’s shocking upset over DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney two years ago could tip the scales to either party.
For Republicans, the goal is not just retaining the majority but building it. Since 2022, the House GOP has succeeded in drawing public attention to Democrat corruption and Biden administration failures through hearings, along with advancing key messaging legislation and blocking the most radical excesses of the left’s agenda. However, conservatives have also been rightfully frustrated that House Republicans have failed to unite on a number of key issues, including recent efforts to pass a spending bill with important election security legislation attached.
The history of the last two years suggests that House Republicans need a majority of more than just a few seats to reliably pass conservative policies – something which will be paramount if Trump takes back the White House and Republicans take back the Senate. Undoing the damage wrought by unified Democrat control of government from 2021-2023 will take a GOP House majority that can’t be held hostage by a few recalcitrant members.
Democrats, meanwhile, are especially desperate to win back the House given their dim outlook in the Senate and the prospect of former President Donald Trump’s return to the White House. While it is indeed a narrow one, there is a path for Democrats to win the House while losing the White House and Senate. They would then follow the same blueprint as House Republicans over the past two years.
Democrats also know that if Harris wins the White House but Democrats lose the House and Senate, the GOP could hamstring her agenda from day one. Harris will need control of at least one chamber of Congress to hold any negotiating power. The House appears to be their best bet.
Much like the presidential race, control of the House looks like it will be decided by incredibly thin margins. Both parties should not neglect key races in the final weeks of the campaign.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.
