Today is political D-Day, with half of all voters voting today, even with 80 million ballots already cast. Our nation is on pins and needles, what should we expect? Yogi Berra said it best: “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”
First, while networks will report all night, some states will be slow, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, important ones. How slow? Why slow?
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do not start counting until election day but must count through the night, with no stopping. Arizona is always slow, does not begin until ballots are in, and may take days. Nevada allows until November 9 for validly postmarked ballots to arrive, squirrelly but true.
In a year where swing states are critical – including Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada – every vote counts, we know they all must be counted.
A snapshot of polls. Georgia, which Trump won in 2016, Biden 2020, is a dead heat, 49-49 (Marist), 49.9 Trump, 48.4 Harris (Bloomberg). Pennsylvania is open, Trump up 49-48 (Emerson), but elsewhere down 48- 50 Harris (Bloomberg), tight.
In some polls, Michigan seems to tip for Harris, 46-49 (Quinnipiac), 46.5- 49.6 (Bloomberg). But Wisconsin leans Trump 49-48 in two polls (USA Today, Emerson), Nevada a dead heat, Harris up 48.8-48.3 in Bloomberg, 48-48 in Atlas-Intel). Arizona is 50-49 Trump in Marist, 49-49 in Bloomberg.
What this tells us could be meaningful – or meaningless – depending on polls. People are savvy and tend to say less, often nothing. Pollsters need to get to people who respond. One side may be more….
Similarly, pollsters want credibility but like to be quoted by one side. Some are not fans of Red America. Still, these races likely all will be close. North Carolina, by the way, seems firm Trump.
Second, voter registrations may affect outcomes, especially in swing states. While Democrats traditionally out-register Republicans by 630,000 in Pennsylvania, that advantage dropped to 300,000. Why? More than 160,000 Pennsylvania Democrats switched to Republican.
Will this tip Pennsylvania red? Will other factors crowd out registrations, with one county corrected for turning away voters, and two others investigating fraud? It’s hard to know, anything could matter.
What else do we know about voter registrations? Nationwide, in virtually every state and all swing states, voter registrations are up, especially Republican ones. Arizona saw 260,000 more Republicans than Democrats register this year; North Carolina saw a jump of half a million.
Oddly, many factors drive registrations, Trump’s enthusiasm after near assassinations, but also Harris replacing Biden, pushing abortion to women. Yet many who register do not vote – wildcard.
Third, early voting is up – especially for Republicans. Important? Since Republicans are often traditionalists, more voting on election day, the reversal – more out early, especially those who might not otherwise vote – could be decisive.
Fourth and finally, as with all contests, politics, or war, morale level, motivation, energy, and belief in one’s cause – can be decisive. This may be especially so this year, with Democrats motivated more by distaste for Trump than love of Harris, and Trump voters split between strong and weak support.
Notably, in August – just after Harris replaced Biden in a stunning, perhaps much-wished-for, turn –Democrat enthusiasm was high. Even today, Democrats outpace Republicans – if you believe the polls.
But there may be more to that story, too. Republicans voting for Trump fall into different categories, those enthusiastic, those voting policies, and those reluctant yet fearful of Harris-Walz ahead.
Interestingly, as in 2016, Democrat and media efforts to shame Republicans into not voting, not declaring who they voted for, or pretending to support Democrats may again be in play.
Laconic lesson: On election night 2016, sitting in a DC restaurant, an enthusiast for Hillary Clinton shouted for her as CNN gave her another state. Standing nearby, I noted I voted for Trump. Looking around, he edged over to me, “I did too,” he quietly confided. Yogi Berra: “It’s never over ‘til it’s over.”
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC. Robert Charles has also just released an uplifting new book, “Cherish America: Stories of Courage, Character, and Kindness” (Tower Publishing, 2024).