Earlier this summer, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry claimed that Beijing was indifferent to who wins the U.S. presidential contest this fall. But experts with whom I spoke said that is far from the truth, with one describing the Biden-Harris administration as “a gift that keeps on giving” to Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Dr. Shoi-Ming Teng, a distinguished economist and philosopher who defected to the West in the 1980s, told me that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) undoubtedly prefers that the “status quo” remains unchanged with a Kamala Harris victory in November. He emphasized that Beijing fears the “constant surprises” that characterized Trump’s policy toward the communist nation and would prefer to deal with more predictable Democrat leaders.
“The speed and depth of Trump’s policy overwhelmed them,” he added, referring to the CCP’s senior leadership. “Trump threw them on their knees.”
Meanwhile, Teng said, the CCP has shown that it does not take Biden as a serious threat, pointing specifically to an altercation early in Biden’s presidency where Chinese officials berated and ridiculed Biden Secretary of State Antony Blinken during meetings in Alaska. Teng also said that while Biden has maintained many of Trump’s sanctions and tariffs, he has “failed to make the necessary adjustments after the CCP found a way to avoid them.” As a result, China has been able to resume flooding the U.S. with its goods, continuing the hollowing-out of American industry.
Lawyer and economist Jun De Ning, who advised Chinese leader Hu Yaobang and defected to the West shortly after his death, told me that the CCP’s “biggest fear” is Trump’s return to the White House.
As Ning explained, despite false “official” numbers published by the CCP, China is in a deepening economic crisis caused by Xi’s policies and accelerated by Trump’s presidency. Prior to Xi’s moves to tighten the government’s grip over all of Chinese society, many CCP officials assumed China’s economic expansion was unstoppable. But now the country has seen a notable rise in unemployment, increasing debt, and a significant foreign investment and capital outflow, with almost $15 billion leaving between April and June.
Early indications also suggest that China may already be making preparations to weather the storm of a second Trump term, further indicating that they would much prefer another four years of Democrat rule.
China’s increasing military and economic cooperation with Russia may be one prime example of this. Should Trump win a second term, China would need somewhere else to offload the goods that are currently coming into the United States.
One possible answer is Russia, another American adversary. Chinese exports to Russia rose by 4.76 percent in June, more than quadruple the 0.92 percent increase in May.
However, neither Russia’s capital nor its consumer market can come close to supplanting the United States. Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has also hampered Moscow’s ability to be an effective trading partner.
But Beijing has also adopted a three-pronged approach to potentially insulate itself from renewed tariffs and sanctions in a second Trump term.
First, Beijing is working to aggressively integrate Chinese firms into the American economy. This includes working to remove Chinese companies from U.S. blacklists, forcing Trump to restart the sanctions process if he is re-elected. Chinese entities, including real estate owners and tech firms listed on major stock exchanges, have been directed to discreetly increase their U.S. capital ownership.
Second, Chinese companies are also rapidly expanding their operations in Mexico and Canada. In addition to allowing them to skirt existing tariffs, Beijing is hoping that joint Chinese-Mexican and Chinese-Canadian ventures can capture a large share of the American consumer market and make it more economically painful for a second Trump administration to impose new tariffs. Notably, Kamala Harris’s assertion that Trump’s proposed tariffs on Chinese goods are a “tax” and would raise prices for consumers plays right into Beijing’s hands on this front.
Finally, the CCP intends to continue heavily subsidizing Chinese industry to flood foreign markets with Chinese goods. While this practice maintains the Yuan’s depreciated value, it is also keeping many Western economies on the brink of an economic crisis and decimating their domestic manufacturing capability. Beijing recognizes that if it can maintain its subsidies to keep prices low long enough, manufacturing in the United States and throughout the West will be decimated to the point where the world will have no choice but to rely on imports from China.
Despite what CCP officials may suggest, the outcome of the presidential election this year will have an enormous impact on the future of Chinese economic and foreign policy. With Trump leading in the polls, Beijing is preparing for the worst.
But even if Trump does win a second term, the question remains – will it be soon enough?
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
