California Republicans Chip Away at Democratic Rule

California can count at least two political claims to fame, both of which were on display in the March 5 primary elections.

First, the state features one of the slowest systems of counting ballots in the world. Two weeks after polls closed, the Secretary of State’s office still reported nearly half a million unprocessed ballots that had yet to be counted out of seven and a half million.

Second, the state features a unique open primary system, where candidates run against each other regardless of party, with the top two going on to face each other in November. This means that, rather than needing to indirectly compare the relative turnout in presidential primaries with different levels of competition, it is possible to directly measure each party’s strength in every race.

The results earlier this month point to a continued rightward trend in the Golden State, which, if it won’t make the state competitive in the presidential contest, spells trouble for Democratic hopes of retaking the U.S. House of Representatives. The results also confirm trends, already apparent in opinion polls, showing Republicans gaining support among working-class voters of all races.

California’s primary ballot featured a single statewide race this year, a contest for the Senate seat held by the late Diane Feinstein. The contest attracted the interest of three well-funded Democratic members of California’s U.S. House delegation: Adam Schiff, who was at the forefront of the Russiagate investigations into Donald Trump, yet billed himself as a moderate, especially when it came to support for Israel; Katie Porter, who despite representing a swing seat in Orange County promoted herself as a progressive supporter of the Palestinian cause; and finally Barbara Lee, the longtime African American congresswoman from Los Angeles.

In the end, Steve Garvey, a former MLB player for the LA Dodgers and the leading Republican candidate, finished within sight of first place, with 31.5 percent of the vote to Schiff’s 31.6 percent. Porter and Lee lagged behind at 15.3 percent and 9.8 percent, respectively. Overall, Democratic candidates received 59.38 percent of the vote to 39.01 percent for the Republicans.

While this may seem like a landslide margin, it should be considered in light of the lopsided spending pattern, in which virtually all the spending was on the Democratic side.

These results also need to be compared to recent statewide margins. When this seat was last up in 2018, Democrats led 64 percent to 33 percent in the primary and a Republican didn’t even make it to the November ballot. Kamala Harris was also reelected in 2016 after facing a fellow Democrat in the runoff.

Recent California Senate Races

Context is king. California has been a Democratic-leaning state for decades, and no Republican has won a federal race for president or Senate there since 1988.

Even in modern history, however, California has not always been as lopsidedly Democratic as it was in the 2010s. In the 1990s and 2000s, Republicans routinely lost federal races by around 10 percent, the margin by which Barbara Boxer was reelected in 1998 and 2010, and by which John Kerry defeated George W. Bush in 2004.

The 2012 election marked a turning point, in which not only did Feinstein win reelection by 25 percent, but Republicans lost five House seats. Republican support reached its nadir in 2016 when Donald Trump received only a little over 31 percent of the vote, and in 2018, when Democrats won 46 out of the state’s 53 congressional districts.

Then something happened. In 2020, Donald Trump increased his support to 35 percent, and Republicans flipped four congressional seats for a 42-11 split. Then, while Democrats again won every statewide election in 2022, Gavin Newsom won by only 59 percent to 41 percent against an underfunded opponent, while Republicans reduced the Democratic advantage in the congressional delegation to 40 to 12.

In short, since their peak in 2018, Democrats have lost six U.S. House seats in California, while Republicans have gained five. Rather than a fluke, these gains directly reflect the statewide trend. Newsom carried 38 of 52 U.S. House seats in his 2022 reelection, indicating that the GOP may have more room to grow.

Both last month’s 59-39 Senate result and the outcome in the competitive congressional races seem to confirm this new baseline.

Republicans led the overall 2024 primary vote in all 12 of the House seats they currently hold, as well as in the 47th district vacated by Democrat Katie Porter, and came within a hair’s breadth of leading in the 9th district held by Democrat Josh Harder. At the very least, Republicans seem set to hold their existing seats, with a good shot at picking up an additional seat, and a serious shot at two more.

Also striking is the close correlation between the 2022 results and the 2024 primary numbers – something that should rebut claims by Democrats that the supposedly contested Republican presidential primary resulted in a turnout dynamic that skewed Republican.

That would seem to make sense – by the time California voted this year, neither presidential primary was particularly contested. While Joe Biden received 89.2 percent of the vote, Donald Trump was barely behind him at 79.2 percent. The major drivers of both spending and turnout in California last month were the race for Senate – heavily contested on the Democratic side – and races for Congress and the state legislature.

A sign of just how one-sided the Senate contest was lies in the 30-1 ratio by which Democrat candidates outspent the combined Republican field. When it came to congressional races, the disparity was only slightly smaller. Most of the spending involved races where multiple Democrat candidates were fighting for the right to challenge Republican incumbents, the latter of whom had no reason to heavily spend.

In short, the only reason most Republicans had to vote was to slightly reduce or increase the margin by which Donald Trump defeated Nikki Haley, whereas Democrats were being mobilized to choose the state’s next Senator, as well as candidates they hoped would deliver them a majority in the U.S. House. It would be surprising if those two factors did not at least cancel out.

Claims by Democrats that their low turnout voters are prone to skipping primaries in favor of the November election may have carried water a decade ago when the partisan coalitions were different, but research by UVA’s Center for Politics found that after initial large shifts toward Democrats from the primary to the general in 2012 and 2014, driven in large part by the failure of the California GOP to adapt to Democrat ballot harvesting operations, the trend reversed itself as Republicans caught up organizationally.

Even in a scenario where Democrats match their 2018 shift, they would not be favored to gain a single Republican-held seat. By contrast, a shift in line with the trend from 2020 and 2022 would see them set to make further gains, almost certainly winning Katie Porter’s district.

If the scene is optimistic for Republican House candidates, Steve Garvey faces a steeper task in November.

Garvey has several factors working in his favor. His profile as an MLB star allows him to run as an outsider, while his opponent, Adam Schiff, epitomizes the Bay Area Democratic machine of Nancy Pelosi, Diane Feinstein, Gavin Newsom, and Kamala Harris.

Schiff has the disadvantage of an establishment profile that repels the left and a partisan image, forged by his malicious pursuit of Donald Trump that will motivate Republicans. He will suffer from the general perception that California is headed in the wrong direction, and that the establishment he represents, if it is not solely responsible for the decline, does not care, and will do nothing to reverse it. Schiff is also a white male who defeated two women, one of whom was African American, running on the same ballot as Joe Biden, who struggles relative to other Democrats to mobilize non-white voters.

All these factors will likely be enough for Garvey to turn in the best performance of any Republican Senate candidate since Carly Fiorina in 2010. But defeating Schiff would require overcoming what is certain to be a lopsided financial disadvantage, as Schiff calls upon not just the California Democratic establishment, but the tech, entertainment, and real estate sectors that depend upon it.

Democrats have all but transformed California into a pseudo-state-run economy where an intricate web of planning, environmental, and DEI regulations makes it impossible to do business without political support within the ruling party. With Democrats set to maintain control of Sacramento and key local governments no matter what happens in November, even if those interests were in a position to elect Garvey, it is unclear how an ideological ally in the Republican Senate caucus in D.C. would aid them more than Schiff’s presence within the Democratic state power structure.

That money, along with California’s electoral laws which all but mandate ballot harvesting, means that Schiff’s lack of support among African American, Latino, and liberal voters will count for less because the party will cast their votes even if they are inclined to stay home. The challenge for Republicans in California is that they have to convert Democratic constituencies, rather than simply have them abstain.

Garvey, however, can still win by losing. If he wins 42 percent or 43 percent of the vote, he will almost certainly help carry 16-18 congressional seats, ensuring GOP gains. He will also continue the trend, which, by the end of the decade, may make the state winnable.

The Republican Party did not win majorities in the Alabama legislature until 2010, and Mississippi until 2011. Garvey’s campaign, and the strong primary performance of the GOP slate he will lead, is continuing the process of steadily chipping away at Democratic rule in California. If it continues, it is difficult to see Democrats winning the U.S. House.

Walter Samuel is the pseudonym of a prolific international affairs writer and academic. He has worked in Washington as well as in London and Asia, and holds a Doctorate in International History.