With an already weak President Joe Biden distracted by a floundering re-election campaign at home, China may see a prime opportunity to seize the initiative in the Pacific before former President Donald Trump potentially retakes the White House.
Following the election of new Taiwanese President Lai Ching Te earlier this year, Beijing has escalated its activities in the waters off the island nation, something that has American military leaders concerned. In an interview with Nikkei Asia, Admiral Samuel Paparo, who took over as the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in May, told the paper that China’s military exercises look like “a rehearsal” for an invasion.
Paparo also warned that Beijing is continuing to “build capability at an alarming rate,” reiterating his predecessor’s judgement that Chinese President Xi Jinping wants his army to be ready to take Taiwan by force.
While some Western observers still maintain that China is more interested in economic expansion than war, Paparo’s statements suggest that the CCP is indeed gearing up for an armed conflict.
In a new report, analysts from the National Institute for Principal Research have likewise emphasized that China is ready to aggressively pursue its territorial and political goals and will not waver to resort to war to accomplish its objectives. According to the report, which analyzed data on Chinese air and naval incursions into the waters of Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines between 2020 and April 2024, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) aims to expand its influence beyond the First Island Chain, a group of landmasses that encompasses Japan, Taiwan, portions of the Philippines, and Indonesia, and toward the West. This expansionism may also include plans to gain control over the Korean Peninsula.
As part of this growing aggression, between 2020 and 2024 the Chinese aircraft carriers Shandong and Liaoning consistently operated around the Senkaku Islands, conducting several months-long Pacific missions. At the same time, Chinese military fighter jets and drones frequently approached the airspace near Okinawa Island and even further out from mainland China near where crucial American and Japanese military bases and installations are located.
The report also highlighted the significant role of the Russian navy and air force in Chinese operations. Russian vessels accompanied Chinese ships during missions around Japan, something which raised more questions about the extent of Moscow’s involvement in China’s military ambitions.
Furthermore, Beijing and Moscow have initiated long-duration bomber flights near Japan since mid-November 2020, conducting such flights five times since then, including three times last year. “The Chinese and Russian military regularly perform surveillance, airborne alerts, standby practices, and other activities considered rehearsals,” the report finds.
I spoke with one prominent Chinese defector, a former high-ranking official at the General Political Department of the People’s Liberal Army (PLA) who asked to be identified only as Xiao, who told me that the West should be extremely concerned about China’s ambitions, particularly amid domestic political turmoil in the U.S.
Xiao explained to me that former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, who ruled the country from 1993 to 2003, instructed the PLA to follow Mao’s suggestion to confront “American imperialism” on the Korean Peninsula and elsewhere in Asia. Jiang emphasized that the plan must be kept secret “until China’s triumph” and that China should use “all means to gain supremacy over the West while appearing to push for economic development.”
Xiao also recalled that Jiang stated CCP propagandists should “ridicule” anyone who tried to warn the West about their plans. He believes that a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be accompanied by parallel operations in Korea, a plan that would likely involve Russia.
More than two decades after Jiang left office, Xiao believes that Xi Jinping is continuing to adhere to that same long-term plan. Far from democratizing the country as some in the West had naively hoped, Xi has ruled China according to a war communism dictate, effectively making himself dictator for life last year.
Dr. Toshi Yokohoda, a Japanese businessman who advised the Japanese government in the early 2000s, told me in an interview that Xi follows the edicts of Lenin and Mao, who taught that the Communist Party must act as if it already has accomplished what it wants to achieve. This casts China’s assertive moves around Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines in an even more ominous light.
“You must understand that, for the CCP, economy is not a priority,” Dr. Yokohoda stressed, highlighting the urgency of American leaders comprehending Xi’s motivations. Xiao, who oversaw the ideological conditioning of top Chinese commanders, described the CCP’s goal as “not just fishing in murky waters, but first muddying the waters and then catching fish.” In other words, the CCP intentionally creates an atmosphere of confusion and deception and then offers bait to unsuspecting victims, who cannot see the lurking danger above.
“Unfortunately, the current U.S. president has been deceived by the performance put on by Xi Jinping, believing the charade that they are close to each other,” Xiao said. “For the CCP, America is the main enemy. That will change only when the CCP collapses.”
However, a more discerning U.S. administration – one that understands how dangerous an unchecked Beijing is – could head off the Chinese threat. Former President Donald Trump proved especially adept at countering China during his first term, and Chinese leaders rightly fear his political re-ascendency.
Perhaps the most pressing question now is if Trump can return to the White House before it is too late.
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
