Ukraine is unlikely to be news in a year, except for terms of an overdue peace. Why? Five factors.
First, President Zelinsky is pushing his luck with the US. He keeps asking the US for more money. Biden-Harris keeps giving it. Americans are sick of the rhetoric, being told Europe will fall to the staggering, broke, undermanned, poorly-led Russian army. They are sick … of other things.
Americans, who love freedom, also understand geopolitical realities – and the cost of groceries, gas, and energy. They know Biden-Harris fecklessly started, then mindlessly bankrolled this war, spent 75 billion hard-earned American dollars, as the average European country gave 3.2 billion.
They know when they are being gamed, used by Ukraine, by the Democrats who got a distraction, and even by some NATO allies who lean on US force structure but never pay up. In short, even generous, freedom-loving Americans are asking – how long, at what more cost, to what end?
Second, Zelinsky is losing his grip on reality, on the possible, on what can emerge from a seemingly endless conflict. He keeps announcing victory means pushing Russia back to 1991 borders, complete retreat after the blood and treasure expended, submitting Putin to international criminal prosecution, and Russia compensating – or just more US money – to rebuild Ukraine.
Again, there are limits. Cheap talk about a victory that will never look like that undermines Zelensky’s cause, and reinforces Russia’s resolve – Putin’s and people told they must pay Ukraine.
Third, faith in Ukraine as an honest, above-board, cohesive national government is coming under fire. The country is endemically corrupt and was back in the days when the Biden family was soaking them for millions in exchange for political favors.
Ukraine’s reputation for political corruption is a legend if seldom discussed. They make Mexico, Somalia, and smaller bastions look well-healed. Even apologists for Ukraine’s public corruption, procurement to tax fraud, quietly wonder where hard-earned US tax dollars have really gone.
Fourth, objectively Ukraine is losing the war, and the balance – now tipping hard against them – is unlikely to return, let alone favor Ukraine. The reasons are many. They are being recognized by fans, those who want Ukraine to eventually join NATO, presently a provocative and destabilizing idea.
Even as Russia talks nukes and Ukraine talks long-range missiles, the map is shifting and nothing in the strategic depth of Russia, now allied with China and Iran, suggests that Ukraine could outdistance Russia in men, arms, or staying power. While Russia is hurting, Ukraine is far worse off.
Fifth, the Ukraine conflict is gradually running down critical US inventory of certain strategic weapons, including HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems), JAVELIN missiles (anti-tank weapons), and other categories that matter, not only for a conflict in Europe but everywhere.
The notion that US readiness, and preparedness for war in the Middle East, Far East, globally, and even at home could be compromised by further stretching weapons inventories and production is sobering and should be leading US military and political leadership to pull back on the reigns.
Notably, the impact of public reports that hardware and ammunition are starting to run short not only affects real warfighting in other AORs (Areas of Responsibility) but erodes deterrence, making other wars more likely. Bluntly, the current operational tempo cannot continue.
All of this vectors to a conclusion, one the next administration will have to address head-on: Extending the Ukraine war indefinitely, even trying to elongate it for attritional value over the next year or two, is a dead-end street. The sooner a negotiated peace is found, the better for all.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.
