AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris
With the world’s attention fixated on Ukraine, the Biden administration is busily trying to revive the controversial Obama-era Iran Nuclear Deal. But details about the negotiations have been noticeably scarce, leading even some Congressional Democrats to openly criticize the White House for its alarming lack of transparency.
After President Trump made good on his campaign promise to pull the U.S. out of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, Biden vowed to reverse course again and return to the agreement. Those negotiations began nearly one year ago with Biden officials initiating talks in Vienna with Iranian and Russian officials (yes, those Russians). While the Ukraine conflict initially looked as if it might derail the discussions, the White House was apparently intent on charging ahead and now says it believes a deal is close at hand.
But precious few details have emerged about what the new agreement might look like, leading to concerns from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. A group of 21 House members, including 11 Democrats, sent a letter to Biden last Thursday expressing their concern about the talks. “Without adequately addressing Iran’s role as the world’s leading state-sponsor of terror – which was noticeably absent from the 2015 JCPOA – and simultaneously providing billions of dollars in sanctions relief, the United States would be providing a clear path for Iranian proxies to continue fueling terrorism,” the letter read.
Specifically, the lawmakers emphasized how little information they had been given on the specifics of the deal being discussed. The group listed several questions they wanted answers to, including “What will Iran’s breakout time [the time required to develop a nuclear weapon] be when the agreement is implemented?” “Will Russia gain any economic benefit from an Iran agreement?” and “Will sanctions targeting the Supreme Leader, his office, subordinates, or associated foundations be lifted or lessened in any way?” The fact that members don’t have answers to these basic questions at this late stage of the talks has raised red flags for many foreign policy experts, Republican and Democrat alike.
Another group of House Democrats also reportedly held a call with Biden administration officials on Wednesday about the deal, expressing more frustration that they had been “kept out of the loop.” The group complained that Biden had done nothing to sell the deal, and that reports about the U.S. lifting sanctions on Iranian oil made it seem like the U.S. was “selling our soul” for oil.
At least part of the Biden administration’s reluctance to release many details from the ongoing talks is likely due to the fact that U.S. officials are working closely with Russia to reach a deal, even as the White House publicly decries everything Russian. The prospect of Biden sending weapons to Ukraine to fight Russia on the one hand and then working with the Russians to re-negotiate the Iran deal on the other gives the undeniable appearance of a foreign policy that lacks any coherence, broad strategy, or moral grounding.
Biden may also want to avoid mentioning some of the likely provisions of the deal for fear of massive public backlash. In January, for example, NBC reported that, under some of the terms being discussed, Iran would have to get rid of its weapons-grade uranium possibly by exporting it to Russia. That’s right – one of the “solutions” proposed by Biden officials was to send Iran’s stockpile of nuclear material to the country that poses the biggest nuclear threat to the United States.
The Biden administration also likely doesn’t want people to know the extent to which Iranian terror-linked organizations may be exempted from U.S. sanctions under the new deal. According to some reports, even groups like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has been linked to the deaths of dozens of U.S. service members, would receive sanctions relief. After promising to “restore” U.S. leadership on the global stage, giving a free pass to some of the chief backers international terrorism would be a catastrophic indictment of the Biden administration.
The biggest question that Biden has yet to answer – and which House Democrats are anxious to hear – is “why now?” The specter of Biden’s Afghanistan debacle still looms large, and Democrats are likely wary about another fiasco that could further harm their electoral chances this fall. In Afghanistan, Biden was determined to get U.S. troops out just to say that he did, and the results were predictably disastrous. Now, there are fears that Biden wants to reach an Iran deal for the same reasons, without considering the long-term consequences for the U.S. or its allies, or even if a deal will be effective at all in dissuading Iran from building a nuclear weapon.
The media, for their part, have been willing participants in this scheme to obscure and distract from the substance of the negotiations in Vienna. Coverage has been noticeably sparse, with the Ukraine crisis acting as a convenient excuse to avoid talking about a deal that could have drastic implications for American national security for decades to come.
Biden may yet find himself unable to revive the deal unless he gets both Congress and the public on board. Under the terms of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Review Act, Congress must have a chance to review any new Iran deal before it takes effect. While the Biden administration has argued that their negotiations are over a return to the 2015 deal rather than a new deal, and thus aren’t subject to Congressional review, Republicans and some Democrats have insisted otherwise. As his poll numbers continue to sink, Biden can’t afford any more enemies.
Biden could have an uphill battle ahead of him. As things stand today, few in Congress or the general public appear eager to revert back to the Obama-era approach to Iran that seemed to only embolden the regime and endanger American allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Such a deal might be even more unappetizing this time around now that it involves making concessions to the Russians as well. Yet Biden has plowed ahead anyway, determined to fulfill a campaign promise that seemingly no one asked him to make. Sooner or later, however, Biden will have to defend his deal, and when he does, he may not find the positive reaction, even from his own party, that he was hoping for.