AMAC Exclusive – By Andrew Abbott
A majority of likely voters blame President Joe Biden, lenient prosecutors, or lack of police presence for the increase in violent crime in the United States, according to a poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group for AMAC late last month.
The poll of 1,078 likely voters asked respondents to select from among seven factors what they believe to be the primary reason for the increase in violent crime. Those factors were: the Biden administration, the breakdown of the family unit in America, climate change, lenient prosecutors, immigration, income inequality, and lack of police presence. Respondents could also select that they don’t believe crime has increased.
The most popular answer was “lenient prosecutors,” at 22.3 percent. The next most common response at 21.1 percent was “income inequality,” followed closely by “Biden administration” (19.8 percent) “breakdown of the family unit in America” (17.4 percent) and “lack of police presence” (10.2 percent). “I don’t believe crime has increased,” “immigration,” and “climate change” earned 5.6 percent, 3.1 percent, and 0.4 percent, respectively.
Combined, 55.4 percent of poll respondents said the rise in crime is primarily a result of either lenient prosecutors, the Biden administration, lack of police presence, or immigration. Given the Biden administration’s failures on immigration and Democrats’ association with the “Defund the Police” movement and the rise of far-left prosecutors in many American cities, this mix of answers does not bode well for Democrats heading into a hotly contested midterm election cycle where violent crime is a top concern for most voters.
The demographic breakdown of the poll results paints an even more alarming picture for Democrats. Among Hispanics, a whopping 82.2 percent primarily blame either the Biden administration (21.9 percent) lenient prosecutors (26.5 percent) immigration (12.4 percent) or lack of police presence (21.4 percent). Just 6.8 percent of Hispanics said they believe the increase in violent crime was due primarily to income inequality, and none said they believed crime had not increased.
Among Black respondents, 34.5 percent answered “income inequality.” But 14.5 percent said “lack of police presence,” further suggesting frustrations among the Black community in the wake of the “Defund the Police” movement. Moreover, 9.9 percent of Blacks said they blamed lenient prosecutors for the increase in violent crime, while 8.3 percent said they blamed the Biden administration. Combined, that is 18.2 percent of Black likely voters – a group Democrats need to win by large margins to have any hope of retaining control of Congress – who blame either Democrat politicians or policies many associate with Democrats for the rise in violent crime.
The breakdown of the poll results along party lines confirms that Democrats are indeed in trouble on the issue of crime. After the most popular response of “income inequality” (45.5 percent) a full 24.4 percent of self-identified Democrats in the poll selected either the Biden administration (7.2 percent) lenient prosecutors (4 percent) or a lack of police presence (13.2 percent).
Things are even worse for Democrats among unaffiliated voters. 23 percent said the Biden administration was primarily responsible for rising crime, just 4 points behind the 27.6 percent of Republicans who said the same. 23.1 percent of Independents also blamed lenient prosecutors, compared to 37.3 percent of Republicans.
These results suggest two things. First, Democrats have a major course correction to try to make on crime in the final weeks of the fall campaign. Second, Republicans have a significant opportunity to position themselves as the party of law and order this November – a message that is likely to resonate with voters across the political spectrum if they can make the case that Democrats are responsible for things like less police presence on streets and illegal immigration. With prominent Democrats like Congresswoman Cori Bush continuing to double down on their support for defunding the police and Democrats failing to do anything to address the border crisis, Republicans have all the evidence they need to hammer this point home.
Earning back voters’ trust on an issue as important as public safety is no easy feat – and is one that first requires an actual commitment to change. With just a few weeks left until Election Day, Democrats may already be out of time.
Andrew Abbott is the pen name of a writer and public affairs consultant with over a decade of experience in DC at the intersection of politics and culture.