There is a current vogue among the establishment media and politically undernourished Democrats to assert there is a realistic path to liberal progressive control of the 2027 U.S. Senate, dislodging the current Republican majority.
This electoral daydreaming seemed not so fanciful last year because Republicans must defend almost twice as many seats as the Democrats must defend. As the key races have developed this year, however, it has become clear that most of the seats currently held by the GOP will not be competitive.
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, and the tie-breaking vice presidency, so Democrats will need a net pickup of at least four seats to regain control.
Initially, only about six races (out of 33) appeared competitive. Among the Republican-held seats up for re-election, Democrats had hopes of winning in North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio. Among the Democrat-held seats, Republicans had their eye on Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire.
But a combination of retirements (North Carolina and Minnesota) and some very bitter intraparty primary challenges (Texas, Minnesota, Maine, and Michigan) has altered the competitive political environment.
As the races now stand, Republicans are favored to pick up the seat of the retiring Gary Peters in Michigan. Although the primary is not until August 4, far-left candidate Abdul El-Sayed has taken a polling lead. The overwhelming Republican favorite, former Rep. Mike Rogers, is favored in a hypothetical matchup against El-Sayed.
If Republicans do flip Michigan, Democrats will need to pick up five seats (not four) in order to have control. Their best hopes of doing so are in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska.
But Democrats’ woes don’t stop there. Minnesota has now emerged as an unexpected likely close race – and the potential for a second GOP Senate pick-up. This presents the Democrats with a nearly impossible path to win control.
With Democratic-Farmer Labor Party (DFL) incumbent Tina Smith retiring, two high-profile DFL officeholders, Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan and 2nd District Congresswoman Angie Craig, announced they were running. But Flanagan faces backlash from the ongoing fraud scandals that the DFL administration – led by Governor Tim Walz, and which she is a prominent part of – is accused of ignoring and failing to prosecute.
Because Flanagan is a leader of the radical wing of the DFL, she has received endorsements from Senator Smith, former Senator Al Franken, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. The more moderate Craig, generally rated the better campaigner, has been forced to move to the left to win the nomination, and faces an uphill battle to be on the ballot.
Former TV reporter Michele Tafoya is the favorite to win the GOP nomination in Minnesota. She is facing a primary contest with eight other candidates, but is considered to be a far stronger candidate.
If the race in November is Tafoya vs. Flanagan, the GOP candidate would likely win, but a Tafoya vs. Craig race would be a toss-up.
The GOP has strong candidates in North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, and Alaska. Intraparty primaries have yet to determine GOP nominees in Texas and Georgia.
A potential close contest might occur in Nebraska, but for now, GOP Senator Pete Ricketts is favored in this solid red state.
With so many shifting dynamics as of late, the 2026 national midterm election, especially in U.S. House races, is uncertain with less than six months until Election Day. In the U.S. House contests, the many unseasonal redistricting efforts are further complicating the outcome.
But with the prospect of at least one, and in Minnesota now possibly two, Republican U.S. Senate seat pick-ups, despite uncertainty about some individual races, the question of which party will win control that body is much less in doubt.
As is almost always the case, the state of the economy and how voters feel about it will be the key to the final results. Even with temporarily higher prices for gas and other commodities arising from the conflict in the Middle East, employment and the stock market remain stable. The current U.S. role in the Middle East conflict will almost certainly be concluded in the next few months, and gas and other prices will likely fall significantly.
Anything, of course, is possible, but daydreams of outcomes that ignore the political math are not likely to actually happen when the votes are counted.
Barry Casselman is a contributor to AMAC Newsline.
