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With Dems Demoralized, Conditions Right for Historic Wave

Posted on Wednesday, April 27, 2022
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AMAC Exclusive – By Daniel Roman

It is now April of 2022, and in less than 7 months, American voters will go to the polls to elect 36 governors, 35 Senators, and all 435 members of the House of Representatives. With time running out, and Joe Biden’s approval ratings not only failing to improve, but actually falling, the question is increasingly turning to not whether there will be a Republican wave, but just how large it will be. If the numbers are anywhere near accurate, the answer may well be something unprecedented in recent memory. A look at polling in April, final poll numbers, and actual results from recent election cycles proves instructive:

Cycle Polls in April Final Average Result
2022 R+3.3% ? ?
2020 D+8.2% D+6.8% D+3.1%
2018 D+6.2% D+7.3% D+8.2%
2016 D+2.3% D+.6% R+1.1%
2014 D+2.5% R+2.4% R+5.7%
2012 R+2.8% R+.2% D+1.2%
2010 R+3.2% R+9.4% R+6.8%

What can we infer from the above pattern? First, the current GOP leads are not unprecedented for April of an election year, but they are the first time Republicans have led in the generic ballot for Congress since 2012, and the margin of 3.3% is greater than that at this time in both 2012 and 2010. Of course, in 2012, Democrats staged a comeback which saw not only Barack Obama defeat Mitt Romney in the presidential race, but Democrats narrowly win the popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives, even if they failed to win a majority. 2010, on the other hand, saw a GOP landslide gain of 63 seats.

This brings up another observation. Generally, the party with momentum in April continued to gain strength over the course of the year, while the party in trouble continued to lose support. Republicans were stronger in November than they were in April in 2010, 2014, 2016, and 2020. Democrats showed the same pattern in 2012 and 2018.

Democrats, desperate for any scrap of hope they can latch onto, will rush to embrace the comparison with 2012 as evidence that, despite current polling numbers, they may not be doomed. That may be true if, like Obama, Joe Biden is able to bring his approval rating back up to 51% by election day. But that is not really a revelation. If Joe Biden’s approval rating was 51% rather than the 41% it is now, it is possible the Democrats would even be ahead. What should be more worrying for Democrats was that even with their best candidate of the last 20 years running what was probably one of the best Presidential campaigns of the period against Mitt Romney, Obama was only able to turn a 2.8% deficit for House Democrats into a 1.2% lead, which was not enough for the party to win a majority.

In 2022, Democrats are starting from an even worse position (a 3.3% deficit versus a 2.8% one). As a result, repeating Obama’s achievement would only get them to a .7% popular vote victory, which would still almost certainly produce a Republican House majority. In fact, given the new redistricting maps, it would likely result in something like a 227-208 majority – and that is the absolute best historic case for Democrats.

It is also not a probable scenario. Joe Biden is not Barack Obama, something that should have been established in 2020 when, rather than increasing his lead during the campaign, he was out-campaigned and out-worked by a COVID-afflicted Donald Trump. So far, Joe Biden’s numbers have only moved in one direction since his inauguration – down. Neither the end of COVID restrictions (and the administration continues to resist lifting mask requirements for airports and trains) nor the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has reversed this slide. With rising concern over parental rights in schools and a summer of pent-up demand for gas, it is unclear where exactly any rebound for Biden will come from. Hence the most probable scenario is not that Democrats will recover from their current position but that they will fall further.

The question then is: how far does history indicate they are likely to fall? The closest numbers to April 2022 are those from April 2010, when Republicans led the generic ballot by 3.2% compared with 3.3% now. That lead went on to grow to 9.4% in the final polls and a 6.8% result on election day. The gap between the final polls and election day is indicative of the effect of incumbency. Democrats went into 2010 with a lot of longtime incumbents who overperformed even as they were losing, such as Gene Taylor in Mississippi, who lost by 4% in a district McCain had won 69% of the vote in. Democrats have far fewer of those incumbents in 2022, not least because a number already lost reelection in 2020 when Democrats lost seats in Charleston, South Carolina, and Oklahoma City. In turn, Democrats are starting from a lower baseline (222 seats in 2022 v. 256 seats in 2010), meaning a loss of 63 seats is much less likely.

Ultimately, however, the 2010 comparison makes sense. The dynamics were set in stone by April of 2010. Obama’s agenda had either passed in a mutilated form, as with Obamacare or failed following Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts. All that remained was for Democrats to pray that things would turn around, and they didn’t. For this reason, it is plausible the current 3.3% lead in April of 2022 will grow to 8-9% in the polls by November and produce a 7%-8% GOP victory result.

The other two possible comparisons are 2014 and 2016. In 2014, Democrats actually led at this point, by 2.5%, only to see that erode until they eventually lost by 5.7%. In 2016, a similar 2.3% lead turned into a 1.1% deficit. The latter would suggest a 7% or so GOP lead in November if applied this year, while the 2014 example would produce a whopping 11.5% margin.

While something around a 7% margin seems most probable, not least because it would match up with Republican margins in 2010 (6.8%) and 2014 (5.7%), the 11.5% one would be historic. Only once in 46 years has a party achieved a 10%+ margin, Democrats in 2008 (10.6%). Republicans have not achieved that margin since the 1920s.

While a 7% margin would be enough for Republicans to win a large House majority, take the Senate, and probably win governorships in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, as well as hold onto Georgia and Arizona, it is difficult to imagine what an 11.5% margin would look like. It might well see Democrats reduced to just 12 governorships, and could even see New York in play. Republicans would probably win Connecticut and Oregon along with New Mexico.

Is that possible? The odds are on a 6-7% margin as in 2010 and 2014, but there are reasons to believe the trajectory of 2022 more closely mirrors 2014 than it does 2010 or 2016. Both 2010 and 2016 saw polarized races between Democrats who had enraged silent majorities (the Tea Party movement in 2010, and MAGA in 2016) and that mobilization caused unprecedented turnout for Republican candidates. But Democratic support did not collapse. Obama, for all his failures, retained the core support of 45% of the public even at his lowest points in 2010. More Republicans voted, but Democrats still voted.

Something different happened in 2014. Turnout was low. A mere 36.5% of registered voters turned out. The 40 million votes Republican candidates received in 2014 were, in fact, 10% less than the 45 million they won in 2010. But Democrats fell from 39 million votes in 2010 to 36 million in 2014. In effect, rather than Republicans being mobilized and Democrats demoralized or vice versa, both parties, were demoralized. This is even more dramatic when compared to 2018, when both parties were motivated, and Republicans increased their vote total from 40 million in 2014 to 51 million in 2018, only losing because Democrats increased theirs from 36 million to 61 million.

What if, however, there were an election where Republicans were mobilized, even to just a 2018 level, but Democrats were demoralized to a 2014 one? Even assuming Democrats manage a vote total 15% above their 2014 total and Republicans only match 2018, the result would be a Republican lead of 51 to 41 million votes or 55.5%-44.5%. That would produce almost exactly the 11.5% scenario discussed above.

While perhaps unprecedented, all current signs point to Democratic demoralization. Build Back Better is dead. Student loan relief has not happened. Democrats are at odds with each other. Biden is fading. Harris is uninspiring and busy feuding with Buttigieg. Democrats on the left demonize Manchin and Sinema. Moderates attack AOC. Why should any vote?

All the ingredients are present for a historic landslide. And the only thing Democrats seem to be doing to avert it is praying.

Daniel Roman is the pen name of a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics.      

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Russ
Russ
2 years ago

McCarthy in DC and Wentworth in Lansing are doing their best to screw up the predicted red wave.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

Yes bigger than 2010 & 1994

Boz
Boz
2 years ago

Dominion must be dealt with……

J Raf
J Raf
2 years ago

The leftist Dems will steal the midterms also, as they did in 2020 and like they just did in France’s election. The World Economic Forum made sure of that. The RINO’s (McCarthy et al) have done absolutely nothing to make elections secure (because they are in the WDEF’s pocket). So don’t get excited and don’t be surprised when we don’t take back the house and senate.

Chris
Chris
2 years ago

The article doesn’t mention what has been done to prevent cheating. Dominion voting machines, Vote by Mail and No ID required to vote are the tools that were used to cheat.
Red wave Sounds Good

Qanon
Qanon
2 years ago

Democrats lost Twitter. The drip drip drip of awakening is about to turn into a waterfall.

You are WITNESSING the systematic destruction of the old guard.
Q

tinker68
tinker68
2 years ago

I remember all the wonderful stories for the 2020 election and we conservatives took a huge oscar type slap to the face when all was said and done. I don’t trust our election officials nor the system of mail-in voting and OTHER NEFARIOUS GOINGS ON. No way to know what will happen in 2022 or 2024 but I do not believe the democrats plan on changing a winning formula.

Earl Robert Alexander
Earl Robert Alexander
2 years ago

The Red Wave presupposes that we have fixed the Democrat’s election-rigging machine. Every I ask a Republican that, ….they just stare at their shoes.

mary
mary
2 years ago

His last statement bothered me a great deal. If we are not praying to the GOD of the Bible, than there is no hope. So let’s not use that as a negative. Afterall GOD is the One Who puts people in power and out of power.

We all need to be praying!

Phillip Ridenour
Phillip Ridenour
2 years ago

Interesting numbers. But as they say on investment ads: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Phillip Ridenour
Phillip Ridenour
2 years ago

I can’t give you enough thumbs up. Thanks for the dash of cold water/slap in the face to keep us vigilant, engaged an not overconfident. BTW you should be writing for AMAC instead of Robert B. Charles. Your insights are sharper and your grammar is better.

Tim Momsen
Tim Momsen
2 years ago

Jimma Carter 2.0

Stephen
Stephen
2 years ago

Dems have proven they know how to steal elections. They do so with no push back and even right out in the open. They’ll do the same here. We did not fight at all after 2020 and had reason too. Dems fought like hell in 16 when they had nothing. That’s the difference between dems and Republicans. Dems fight, Republicans cower. We need people especially young people who will go to the mattresses.

Max
Max
2 years ago

Paul E, GREAT COMMENTARY. Hope that the people/voters will WAKE UP and get to the polls to vote in responsible representatives for their districts and states.

Sharon Ormsby
Sharon Ormsby
2 years ago

I hope and pray Republicans turn out in huge numbers in every state. I also pray that God steps in and the right people get into these offices, and we can take this country back. However, we are in the last days and more and more evil is to come. Therefore, I’m not going to hold my breath. I know for a fact that not all the states have fixed their fraud issues. Texas has found multiple fraud cases,500 of them in fact, and we have some of the most stringent voting laws in the country. If we have had fraud cases, finding fraud both for Biden and Trump-then I promise you, that happened in most of the other states. If this hasn’t been corrected, then I’m afraid, things won’t change for us.

Amacer
Amacer
2 years ago

This midterm election will tell me how honed the Left’s cheating tactics are. If the Democrats do not lose in a MAJOR embarrassing defeat, then I know their cheating tactics have advanced much further than anyone can imagine.

HCorey
HCorey
2 years ago

Dems don’t get demoralized. Dems have no morals. They just reprogram their robots.

Morbious
Morbious
2 years ago

First, see paules post below. Ill offer two fun analogies. The Rs right now remind me of when the captain of a jetliner throttles back to lose elevation and drift into a landing. Second, they remind me of all the westerns i grew up watching where a bruce dern character tries to shoot the hero but misses whereupon the hero beats dern into a coma but then leaves him to recover his senses and go for his gun again. The dems should never be taken lightly. Only veto proof majorities hold any promise of restoration. Such majorities cannot be won on cruise control.

Jake the snake
Jake the snake
2 years ago

I hope everything single democrat looses their election.

We desperately need the economy and energy structures repairs. We need a huge reduction in government give aways and a demand that people be responsible for themselves.

We need sanctuary city and state officials put in prison. We need every state to clean all the illegals and dead people of their registrations. And then a national registration.

We need it to be illegal to give drivers licenses to illegal aliens. We need all dominion voting equipment and software outlawed

We need soros, Zuckerberg, Dorset, and gates in prison and all their assets confiscated for their parts in the 2020 voter fraud.

We also need most of the current administration and the obama administration in prison for their corruption

Finally we need to make English the official language.

Tim Toroian
Tim Toroian
2 years ago

And the GOP better not blow it before or after!

JayA
JayA
2 years ago

Things look good on paper without the cheat that is. I just hope my dead Grandad stays in his grave this election and doesn’t vote Democrat again!

Hdrydr
Hdrydr
2 years ago

You don’t think that the dims are gonna give cheating another go? Polls are rubbish. Posting poll “results” don’t mean a thing.

Philip Hammersley
Philip Hammersley
2 years ago

Act like we’re DOWN by 10%. Don’t be over confident: people will stay home!

Adonis
Adonis
2 years ago

And Republicans will blow it as they always do. As long as McConnell and McCarthy remain in leadership,nRepublicans will fail as always.

Mario Capparuccini
Mario Capparuccini
2 years ago

To whom do the Democrats pray?

Kay
Kay
2 years ago

Be careful remember the 2020 election was stolen and corrupt and the socialist democrat party with millions from soros and zuck will not give up easily. We must be sure we have a fair election

David Millikan
David Millikan
2 years ago

TIME TO STEP UP AMERICA and GET RID of the SCAM CON ARTIST SOCIALIST/COMMUNIST, FASCIST liberals.
They are COUNTING ON YOU NOT VOTING.
PROVE THEM WRONG.
OR, PAY THE PRICE AND WISHED YOU HAD VOTED BECAUSE THE UNITED STATES of AMERICA HAS TURNED INTO COMMUNIST CHINA and LOOKS LIKE IRAN.
Think it’s not possible? Look at what’s in the White House and LOOK AT YOUR WALLET and FREEDOM and YOUR FREEDOM OF SPEECH BEING STRIPPED AWAY AS FAST AS THEY CAN TAKE IT ALL AWAY FROM YOU.
THEY ONLY CARE ABOUT POWER AND CONTROL OVER YOU. LIKE THEIR ILLEGAL and UNCONSTITUTIONAL MASK AND VACCINE MANDATES WAS THEIR FIRST TEST ON SEEING WHO COMPLIES WITHOUT QUESTION AND OBEYS AT ANYTHING THEY SAY WITHOUT QUESTION.
IF NOT, WHY DO THEY ALWAYS CHANGE NARRATIVE EVERY DAY WHEN THEY ARE CALLED OUT?
ANSWER: SCAM CON ARTIST.

Barb
Barb
2 years ago

The conditions may be right for the historic wave, but the Republicans should not let their guard down. When the guard is down, the sneaky Democrats will do some crooked things with voting to have themselves come out in the lead. Vote Republican if you want the inflation, high food prices, high gas & vehicle prices, to get under control and go away.

Gary
Gary
2 years ago

It seems to me that the leftocrats don’t pray, but prey upon children and decent people. Throughout history by many names; confederate, socialist, communist, progressive, modern, enlightened, revolutionary, and so on, and by deceptive names such as; democratic, peoples republic, etc. they commit tyranny..Also throughout history as monarchs,(kings and queens), emperors, dictators, supreme leaders, father of the people, pharaoh, etc., humanity has been held back and suffered over the millennia. The US is the first to resist these terrible systems of human disgrace. Our country had to rise out of the dirt of authoritarian rule. Dirt is sticky, it needs to be washed off from time to time. We must not allow the selfish, cruel, narcissistic, megalomaniacs who wish to return us to the dirt for their own gain to ever have their way.

Generizer
Generizer
2 years ago

With the growing corruption, financial crisis, political instability and the growing wokeness and cancel culture in our beloved USA, we must reclaim our country by voting out these leaders (democrats or republicans). It used to be whoever wins in election, the main goal is to continue America its greatness and the world-leader in democracy – no longer the case! America’s biggest enemy are the leaders promoting wokeness and cancel cultures.

Centurion
Centurion
2 years ago

“All the ingredients are present for a historic landslide. And the only thing Democrats seem to be doing to avert it is praying.”

Wrong. The demon-communist-cRATS are deep underground secretly cranking up their voter fraud machine. Unless Republicans step up to be poll watchers and stay there 24 hours a day, the communists will have another “81 million votes for Biden” event.

D.P.
D.P.
2 years ago

The ebb and rise of numbers……nothing new to see here. Interpretation of numbers remains subjective on all fronts. Trends are just that….”trends”….and like the SAT score, most likely will have only slight influence on outcomes. There are just too many variables to take into account….historically, polls, trends and the like have been used to promote an agenda, sway a change, or influence the ignorant to one direction or another. What is needed is factual, meaningful numbers that show the historicity of actions and results…..not as predictors, but as facts to be considered. I have never appreciated or trusted statisticians and their numbers….too much risk of being “played.” So, we look at what the present elected branch is doing, has done, and go from there…..providing you can get truthful records of those activities……and that’s questionable in the realm of politics. The gist of it is this…..
use your brain, study the information, learn as much as you can about what is real, not trendy, and make a decision based on the things you can know…..and do this with prayer.

Patty
Patty
2 years ago

It is far too early to make predictions about the potential results of the upcoming election.
For sure & for certain, the 2020 election proved one thing, ‘It doesn’t matter who votes. It only matters WHO COUNTS the votes.
Until the results are announced, I’m NOT getting my hopes up.
They got away with it in 2020; there have been no consequences to detour them from doing “it” again.

Helga
Helga
2 years ago

… time to face facts, a rigged election could never have occurred here in America, without mutual cooperation, McConnell, McCarthy, Schumer and Pelosi, elbows deep into it. Never forget who turned their backs on America, knowingly certifying a rigged election. When we inevitably vote out feckless, whacked-out democrats come November, keep in mind what we then have to look forward to, but exactly the same two-faced, do-nothing Republicans, deathly afraid of sticking their necks out.

Janet Poling
Janet Poling
2 years ago

Democrats and praying in the same sentence? Hmmmmm

Luke
Luke
2 years ago

Poll numbers mean nothing when voting machines, media and social media platforms conspire against the taxpayer to willingly cheat. And, they’ll do it again knowing full well that they will not be prosecuted in a timely manner. The rule of law is broken in America. Billary, et. al. should’ve been in jail a long time ago. Instead, they hire big lawyers with big money to obstruct and delay. And, it’s legal to do that. Meanwhile, the American taxpayer is held to an entirely different standard of ‘law’ because most do not have that kind of money.

Liberal democrats and rinos WILL cheat again. Expect another round of attempted coup and every kind of voter fraud available to them.

Wayne Peterkin
Wayne Peterkin
2 years ago

If the elections are truly honest with only legitimate, eligible voters casting ballots without any outside interference then I’m pretty sure that this predicted “red wave” may become reality. But that is a big “IF” because the democrats are doing and will do everything in their power to insure the election policies favor them and dishonesty is very acceptable. 2020 was the most questionable election in my 78 years and this coming one will be as bad or worse if the left can engineer it. I have argued that election integrity is the biggest issue we face, because if our elections are not seen as accurately reflecting the will of eligible voters only, then democracy itself is a sham and the nation will fail. Our survival depends on fair elections and there can be no excuse for substituting policies that may introduce fraudulent results. I hope it’s a bloodbath with the GOP on top, but I fear for the honesty.

Garye
Garye
2 years ago

Keep exposing the marxist democrats failed policies and destruction of Our Country, don’t become complacent, work hard to throw them out!
We the People must take back America and end these traitors insanity!!!

Roger Davis
Roger Davis
2 years ago

Could Amac come up with a list of candidates running for congressional offices against those Democrats holding seats in the House and Senate and put in on the web about once each month to keep us updated?

JED S.
JED S.
2 years ago

2022’s “red wave” is virtually assured. The uncertainty now lies with the Republican Party. What will they do with their restored congressional majorities? Where is the modern day equivalent of Speaker Gingrich’s well crafted “Contract With America”? I fear the Republicans will, as has so often occurred in the past, not perform as a cohesive unit and wield power effectively . Demonrats are repugnant; however, unlike their Republican’t counterparts, they happily goose step along together for the pursuit of their party’s political objectives.

Marie Langley
Marie Langley
2 years ago

Hate to be Debbie Downer but the reality is the only chance we have to save America is if we take back the House and the Senate. If we don’t accomplish this then we are doomed and a Republican will never get elected to the White House again. I don’t want to believe this but I’m afraid it’s true.
That is why our southern border is so open. Biden knows that these illegals will vote Democrat because they were allowed to come in and they get free stuff courtesy of us hard working tax payers. It’s all so disgusting. My grandparents are rolling over in their graves right now.

spitfire?1940
spitfire?1940
2 years ago

Don’t worry,McConnell and the ‘Rinos’ can still screw it up.

Judy K.
Judy K.
2 years ago

And as soon as they pass the permanent vote by mail bill, this article to raise up Hope’s of getting our country turned around will be moot. The Devil is devious and he has the Progressives in the palm of his hand.

PRAY!!!!!!!

Judy K.
Judy K.
2 years ago

I believe one way we could ensure voting integrity is to have separate voting precincts for each party. Dems collect and count Dem votes, Repubs collect and count Repub votes and so on. Policing the Republican and Independant precincts would be a must. Hidden video surveillance of all Republican and Independant collection sites would also be imperative. We know what the Dems would try to do. They will do whatever it takes to steal an election, even by creating some kind of diversion. They are completely evil.
I believe it would be worth a try. Let’s PRAY that permanent vote by mail bill doesn’t pass.

Harry
Harry
2 years ago

With the ability of Democrats to cheat hundreds of ways and ways we have never seen, If I were a Republican congressional candidate, I wouldn’t count my chickens too soon. The Dems are cheaters and will cheat!!!

Blondie
Blondie
2 years ago

Things are looking good for the States where the cheating did not occur. For the swing States, they are hard at work trying to ensure that lines are drawn, machines are ready, mail in ballots are printed in triplecet, and campaign smear tactics are figured out for the big cheat, part 2. I hope the Dems spiral down in every race, circle the drain and drown in their sorrows.

COLMac
COLMac
2 years ago

Sounds good, but don’t underestimate the ability of the Democratic Socialist/Marxist/Communist Party to cheat and again commit fraud in future elections!

Anthony Dellisola
Anthony Dellisola
2 years ago

The Democrats know how to manipulate the votes so we need better control at the polls.

Annette Grace
Annette Grace
2 years ago

If we have a fair and honest election there’s no reason why we can’t take a large percentage of the House and the Senate. I know there are a lot of Democrats who are disgusted with the way the politicians they elected have destroyed America. I have been praying for many months now that God will help us take back America. Please consider saying a little prayer every day for God to help us win the election in 2022 and 2024 so we once again will have one Nation, under God, indivisible with liberty and justice for all.

A. Grace
A. Grace
2 years ago

If we have an honest and fair election there’s no reason we can’t take a large percentage of the House and the Senate. I know that there are a lot of Democrats who are disgusted with the way the politicians they have elected have destroyed America. Voting is so important to take America’s freedom back. I have prayed for many months now that God would help us take America back. Please say a little prayer everyday that God will help us win the elections in 2022 and 2024 so we once again will have one Nation, under God, indivisible with liberty and justice for all.

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