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The Vanishing Permanent Democrat Majority

Posted on Wednesday, June 8, 2022
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by Andrew Abbott
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76 Comments
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AMAC Exclusive – By Andrew Abbott

While poll numbers show that President Biden is generally unpopular with all voters nationwide, what should be particularly alarming to the Democratic Party is his precipitous decline in support among minority voters. Nowhere is this clearer than with Hispanic Americans, who now disapprove of the job that Joe Biden is doing as President by a whopping 60%-26% margin. The numbers are similarly concerning among other key Democrat demographics, including black voters. Should this trend continue, it may point to the permanent evaporation of what once promised to be a permanent Democrat majority coalition.

Defenders of Biden suggest his declining support among Latino voters in particular, who have been hard hit by inflation and rising gas prices, is merely a result of the current economic tumult and not the problems with the party itself. But the numbers tell a different story. According to a Quinnipiac University poll, “48% of Hispanic registered voters said they wanted Republicans to take control of the House of Representatives, while just 34% said they wanted Democrats in power. In addition, 49% of Hispanic voters said they wanted the GOP to win the Senate, while 36% said they wanted Democrats to remain in control of the chamber.” Clearly, Hispanic dissatisfaction is with Democrats generally, not just Joe Biden.

While Biden does remain above water with black Americans, his approval has slipped to 63% from 85% last year. But even before Biden took office, Democrats were showing signs of struggling with what has long been a key bloc of voters in both statewide and national elections. Hillary Clinton severely underperformed with black voters in 2016. In 2018, despite winning back control of the House, Democrats actually won a smaller share of the black vote than they did in 2016. Donald Trump won more of the black vote in 2020 than he did in 2016, despite four years of a mainstream media smear campaign. While black support for Democrats remains strong overall, Republicans are undoubtedly trending in the right direction, albeit slowly.

This hemorrhaging of minority voters is unprecedented in recent history and is unthinkable to many progressive elites. Last month, co-host of “The View” Sunny Houston expressed as much when she said that “I don’t understand Black Republicans, and I don’t understand Latino Republicans,” going on to say that a “black Republican” or a “Latino Republican” is an “oxymoron.”

Houston’s comments indicate how progressives have for years viewed support from minority voters as a given and not something that must be actively pursued. The belief among liberal elites is that the Republican Party exists explicitly to service and promote the policies and principles of “white America” and that, since the 1960s, the party has been rooted in white isolationism, nativism, and resentment of minorities. Thus, as the country becomes more diverse, the white Republican vote will gradually be destroyed via diversity, or so the theory goes.

This idea was popularized by a 2002 book titled The Emerging Democratic Majority and has become the de facto philosophy among Democratic Party strategists ever since. Mitt Romney’s disappointing 2012 presidential campaign was pointed to as the clearest sign that the days of the Republican Party were numbered. Following his defeat, the RNC released a much-touted “autopsy” of his failed campaign, which concluded that the party was on its way to oblivion if it didn’t become more “inclusive.” In a way, the GOP did become more inclusive, but not by embracing the Democrats’ brand of identity politics as the GOP autopsy imagined.

When Trump won the Republican nomination in 2016, progressives predicted that not a single minority voter would support the controversial candidate. Prominent Clinton supporter Maria Cardona reassured Democrats that a “big, beautiful brown wall” of Latinos stood between Trump and the White House. A New York Magazine writer called the 2016 Trump campaign “the death throes of white male power.”

To the shock and horror of all these experts and elites, Donald Trump successfully won the presidency in 2016 with almost a third of the Hispanic vote. Furthermore, he outperformed Mitt Romney with black Americans. Despite the clear repudiation of their theory of the GOP’s demise, many Democrats continued to assert that “demographics were destiny” and that 2016 was merely a “fluke,” primarily due to an unpopular Hilary Clinton and alleged “Russian interference.”

It wasn’t until the 2020 presidential election that Democrats realized they were genuinely losing ground with minorities, even if they managed to win back the White House and the Senate. Not only had Trump held onto his minority support, but he actually won a more significant share of black male and Hispanic voters than he did the first time. This rude awakening was reaffirmed in 2021 when Republicans won all three statewide offices in Virginia with, by some metrics, a majority of the Hispanic vote. As David Shor, a Democrat polling expert and avowed socialist, said, “the GOP is really assembling the multiracial working-class coalition that the left has always dreamed of.”

There are many theories on why minorities, especially Hispanics, are shifting away from the Democratic Party. One of the most prominent is “messaging.” According to Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ): “We don’t really talk about the American dream to Latinos; we talk to them like we talk to white liberals. But they’re not white liberals! Latinos want to be rich; they want to be successful.” That’s a message much more in tune with traditional conservative principles, not progressive rhetoric about redistribution of wealth and the “Tax the Rich” slogan Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez famously wore splashed on her gown to the Met Gala in Manhattan.

But, rather than “messaging,” the deeper issue for Democrats might be a fundamental misunderstanding of what issues truly matter to minority voters. Democrats consistently invoke amnesty and immigration “reform” as the main priority when speaking with Hispanic voters. Yet, for at least the last decade, immigration has ranked low in priorities for Hispanic communities. Most Latinos are in favor of border security and support border patrol and law enforcement. They don’t want government handouts and free healthcare; they want economic opportunity to build a future for themselves and their children, something Democrats have not even talked about for decades.

Even with Democrats bleeding minority support thanks to their failed policies, Republicans can and should continue active outreach to these voters. The future of the Republican Party–the one that Democrats truly fear–is a diverse coalition of voters united not by shallow identity politics and fearmongering but by a shared love of country and commitment to broad prosperity that has always defined our national character.

Andrew Abbott is the pen name of a writer and public affairs consultant with over a decade of experience in DC at the intersection of politics and culture.           

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Frank
Frank
1 year ago

Hispanics are white and some are black. So every time they use the Hispanic card it makes me laugh a little. What are Italians? Or Spainish people? Those from eastern Europe? Indians from (India) Asians or Pacific Islanders? Always trying to “paint” people into corners. The only reason blacks (not the Africans that have come over her recently) vote for Democrats mostly is because of welfare and the gimme programs that Johnson started in the 60’s. Many blacks are waking up to the game the Democrats have played since then though. Who really wants to have the Federal government dictate to them and control them? If the government controls the food, medicine, education, etc. then they control you.

Aughenbaugh, Robert
Aughenbaugh, Robert
1 year ago

After her 2016 loss Hillary complained endlessly that the democrats didn’t pull out all the stops to put her in the White House. Many democrats, including The New York Times, believed that she was going to win by double digits so there wasn’t any reason to take extraordinary measures to secure her the win.
But what did they mean by pulling out all the stops and extraordinary measures? Well, we found out in 2020. It meant ballot harvesting, having Dominion Voting Systems send ballots to Germany and Spain to be counted and keeping workers at the polls until they obtained enough ballots in specific states to win.
Not even the most rabid liberal ever believed that Biden got 82 million votes, especially Hillary. And till her dying day she’s going to be spitting mad that they didn’t do for her what they did for Biden to put that senile clown in the White House.

Becky
Becky
1 year ago

The Left Communists gave up all pretenses of a real platform in 1980. Their goal has been fearmongering since that time.
With no platform…..what are they going to run on?
Fear.

THX 1138
THX 1138
1 year ago

Whenever one trusted in Democrat policies, that person usually will end up in a hole somewhere that they just do not want to find themselves being in.

Doug
Doug
1 year ago

No rational, thinking working American worker will vote democrat regardless of race.

JMIII
JMIII
1 year ago

If the biggest concern of every Latino was allowing in more immigrants to compete for jobs and the biggest concern of every African American was bigger handouts, then the Democrats could be assured of 100% support. But Latinos and African Americans are not monoliths. They have a variety of concerns. Can the Democrats provide a political home for someone that is pro-life, pro-2A and wants the border enforced? Absolutely not. Can you find more than a few African-Americans and Latinos that hold those views? Most assuredly so. so poor Sunny Houston should put on her thinking cap and use it once in a while and she might understand why the Democrats can never own 100% of the minority vote.

Hal
Hal
1 year ago

Our Nation will never be the truly functioning as anticipated form or governance (best in the history of the world) unless meaningful, effective changes are made to legitimize the election process to truly represent the wishes of the US citizens voting. Also, it becomes obvious that term limits on Congressmen and high-ranking officials’ office heads (IRS,FBI, CIA, etc.) are direly needed. Otherwise, discontent will continue to rage with no relief for the voting public. The only reason term limits were passed was because the Democrats-in-waiting got impatient with FDRs’s domination of POTUS for so many years.

Free the Kraken
Free the Kraken
1 year ago

When Barack Obama was elected POTUS, didn’t ole James “Q-ball” Carville write a book predicting at least 40 years of unbroken Democrat rule? A bit off, Jimmy boy!

Duane Hoobler
Duane Hoobler
1 year ago

La proxima vez me voy a votar Republicano !

MBlanc46
MBlanc46
1 year ago

Mexicans and other Latin Americans will always vote 2-1 Democrat. They may not be crazy about a lot of Dem hobby-horses—men in sundresses, for example—but the Dems will always offer them more than the Repubs will, as the latter have nothing to offer them. Sure, the Repubs favor unrestricted border crossing, but they also are full-bore supporters of sending jobs to low-wage countries

WhiteDoorOne
WhiteDoorOne
1 year ago

On the “Hispanic Vote” I’ll believe it when I see it. On the black vote…don’t expect them to be waving any flags soon either.

Andrew P
Andrew P
1 year ago

The Rats may be slowly losing ground with minorities, but the key word is slowly – and they aren’t losing Black Women at all. But the Rats have made massive gains with suburban white women, and they still have them. We are seeing a realignment where affluent white women are moving left and other groups are moving right. This November, I expect the GOP to make awesome gains in the House, where every seat is up for election, but little or no net gains in the Senate where we may lose as many as we gain because only 1/3 of the Senate is up, we don’t have a top tier team on the field, abortion will be more of an issue in Senate races than the House, and the Rats have an advantage in statewide races in states with big cities..

blacknwhiterose
blacknwhiterose
1 year ago

The Left’s continued insistence on using the term “Latinx” tells us all we need to know about how in touch they are with the minority groups they claim to champion.

Hal Bumby
Hal Bumby
1 year ago

When I filled out my marriage license over 40 years ago in Minnesota…, the DFL…, Democrat Farm Labor party demanded that I tell them my demographic. I refused as I am a strong believer in the great American story of all of us being members of the great American Melting Pot. So when “they” demanded that I tell them my race…, I answered “other”.
The small print then demanded to know if “other”…, what other.
As a proud Republican whose family fought so that “all people” could and would be free despite their race…, I answered other…, “I’m a Human Being”!

The Democrats were the party of the “slave owner”..
The Democrats were the Confederates..
The Democrats were the party of the KKK.
The Democrats wrote the “Jim Crow Laws”.

Yes I’m a proud Republican who believes in the “great American Melting Pot”. Yes I’m an American Human Being. I will unlikely ever vote for a Democrat and those are the reasons why.

StatisticsJason
StatisticsJason
1 year ago

I think this has a lot more to do with inflation/current economic conditions than the writer thinks.

Marie Langley
Marie Langley
1 year ago

I wish the media would stop talking about how the Republicans are going to sweep the House and the Senate in November. It just motivates these liberal wackos to commit fraud. I’m sure they are planning this as we speak. We need to just be quiet about it and quietly swoop in and crush them. Then Chuck Schumer should be arrested for threatening a Supreme court justice and Nancy Pelosi as well for holding up the bill that provides more security to these justices. I think they wanted something to happen to justice Cavanaugh so they could put another liberal in there. They are a really sick bunch. The attorney general should also be arrested for not upholding the law. It is ILLEGAL to protest at any federal judge’s house. The White House is ignoring this. All of those protestors should be in jail. PERIOD

LET’S GO BRANDON!!!!!!!!!

AlfieGooderman
AlfieGooderman
1 year ago

There’s only so much chaos you can take from your baseball team before you wake up to the reality that no matter how hard you root for your team to win, if they can’t hit, can’t catch and can’t throw, they’re going to leave only pain and suffering.

And this is much worse than a pennant race, the consequences of a bad team is just psychological. The consequences of bad policies is psychological, economic, public safety, Inflation, thermonuclear war, and not having enough money left for groceries and gas.

The Dems experiment with the extreme lunacy of Wokeism should have been flashing red for years, but they misread energy from a very small minority as a majority opinion. The rest of their fans are not as insane as the Woke nuts, and unless the Dems change course, What they did to the SF DA, they’re going to repeat the message until the Dem leadership hear them.

BillCarson
BillCarson
1 year ago

Don’t go too far with this talk. There is zero chance that blacks will ever leave the Democrats as long as Dems keep dangling “reparations” in front of them.

Reddog
Reddog
1 year ago

Nothing is permanent.

TD
TD
1 year ago

Democrats promulgate policies that would generally make people poorer, all in the name of environmentalism. Zoning laws limit opportunities to get ahead in the real estate market. Hostility towards industries that actually require blue collar workers (with the possible exception of solar panel or windmill installation) limit opportunities. And it’s easier to keep people down than it is to take away from those who aren’t, and guess who is down. The Dems lost white blue collar workers ages ago, and seem to largely regard them as deplorable in any event, but how much do the working class minorities’ economic interests really differ from their white counterparts?

The ultimate message is, we need to cap your aspirations because if we let you live like us our world will collapse. Why would anyone think that sells?

Garye
Garye
1 year ago

Talk about a blessing from above – REMOVE,REJECT all marxist democrats,rinos, anti American useless,swamp politicians!
The traitor democrat party can go elsewhere, maybe Venezuela, Russia, China.
See ya!

Mac
Mac
1 year ago

Democrats in large hate America…..
Most hide behind the repugnant progressives and do nothing !
Don’t be fooled by these middle of the road democrat clowns !

Michael Lewis
Michael Lewis
1 year ago

IMMIGRATION
Joe, you were hired to look after the interests of the American people, not immigrants. To put it in terms even a wealthy, senior citizen should be able to understand, should anyone be allowed to go to your country club, enjoy the perks and the facilities, without first becoming member and paying dues?
I am a citizen of the United States, a sovereign Republic. Among the perks of living in the United States is an executive branch of government charged with enforcing immigration laws.  As the head of that branch, you swore and oath to do so and lack authority to ignore laws you disagree with. Do your job!
PRICE OF GAS
Joe Biden says he feels our pain at the pump but does not know what to do about it. Well Joe, a short time ago America was energy independent: just do what Trump did!

Jon
Jon
1 year ago

I’m surprised to see Rep. Gallego quoted so positively here, as he’s one of the worst of the far left, posting an obscenity in reaction to the TX school shooting.

Bob Olden
Bob Olden
1 year ago

Republicans would go well to communicate to newly arrived immigrants that they will find opportunity by integrating into the traditional values that made America great: faith, family, hard work, personal responsibility, and respect for our constitution. These will resonate far more than the radical values of the left: rejection of faith, sexual confusion, abortion without limits, big government domination through corrupt bureaucracy, vilification of successful capitalists, and a basically amoral world view. Immigrants are much more in favor of border control when they are already here, also.

Dennis M Struk
Dennis M Struk
1 year ago

The Democratic Party should be OUTLAWED in the United States of America because THEY are the ENEMIES of the AMERICAN PEOPLE. No, I am not for the Republicans, either- In many cases, they are JUST AS BAD AS THE DEMOCRATS. I am not FOR a totalitarian regime; rather, I am FOR a government OF the People, BY the people. It is PAST TIME for a REAL HOUSE CLEANING in America…

Larry W.
Larry W.
1 year ago

Democrat party policies are hurting large sections of all groups of people. The dems brainwashing campaign is not working so well and they are losing their credibility with the middle and lower income classes who are seeing their everyday lives severely affected by the dems decisions.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
1 year ago

Will tell maybe this Nov??

Adonis
Adonis
1 year ago

Entire Democrat party will be voted out of existence if Republicans play it smart. But based on their track record and worthless McConnell in leadership they will retrieve defeat from the jaws of victory as usual.

LiamL
LiamL
1 year ago

Maybe the voter shift is about the majority of PEOPLE (sick of the race card) can see that most Dems and Rino’s are corrupt evil pedophile liars. We want freedom.

SoldiersCross
SoldiersCross
1 year ago

Tim Ryan D-OH is a lockstep Pelosi party vote. Says in his Senate-run ads JD Vance doesn’t care about OH. Here’s your new name, TIM PELOSI.

Westhus
Westhus
1 year ago

It should be crystal clear to every American citizen by now (regardless of demographics) that the Left’s true goal is to destroy this Republic. The Left sees the polls as well and that’s part of the reason for the influx of illegals with no border security: in that way, the Left sees that they can import a voter base that may not fully understand how destructive the Lefts policies are, and instead vote for Dems. The GOP must continue their outreach efforts but also reiterate that their policies are for ALL Americans, then prove it if and when they come to power. No compromise or reaching across the aisle, and ensure that the examples over the last 18 months of record inflation, record prices and supply chain shortages are clearly the Lefts doing. No RINO posture, only wartime Conservatism in the face of the evil Leftists!

Robert
Robert
1 year ago

DUI charges against Paul Pelosi have been dropped. What a big surprise. Meanwhile, America first patriot, Peter Navarro, was arrested and leg ironed for show in relation to the bogus contempt charges as requested by the Jan 6 committee of goofballs on Capitol Hill. Our DOJ once again operating like their old KGB counterparts. Rules for thee but not for me brought to you exclusively by the U.S. Govt and the Democraps!

tika
tika
1 year ago

the polls are showing them that Americans are not supporters of their of their globalism-socialism ideas. i pray dems stop staging fake right gun violence that is killing innocents but history shows that they only get worse, not better.

Philip Hammersley
Philip Hammersley
1 year ago

EVERY House DIMM voted for all this crap and all but one did in the Senate. Their opponents should hang their voting records around their necks! They cater only to the radicals–don’t give a d*** about working people or parents!

Amacer
Amacer
1 year ago

Where’s the outrage on the homosexualizing of our young? What about the absence of justice towards miscreants that perpetrate the Democrat Party election frauds? “Vanishing Democrat Majority”? This wicked party deserves extinction.

Jeb
Jeb
1 year ago

I believe many will swear they are faithful democrats, to save face. I also believe that their choices behind the curtain of the voting booth are going to tell a very different story.

GJToth
GJToth
1 year ago

This all assumes fair & honest elections. At this point, I am HIGHLY skeptical and VERY doubtful that is going to happen. I knew there was some chicanery and corruption in the past. I had no idea it was as deep and prevalent as it is. And, as was shown in the 2020 election, they don’t care WHO knows it now. You have to ask yourself why that is. Answer: Because they know nothing can or will be done about it. Why? Because BOTH “parties” are taking their orders from the NWO/WEF. “Parties” are a trick. Smoke & mirrors to further divide the masses.

PaulE
PaulE
1 year ago

The prospects for a successful Republican presidential win in 2024 with the overall voter base depends completely on the type of Republican candidate that wins the nomination process. If Trump or a Trump-like candidate (DeSantis) wins the Republican nomination, then prospects are good. There is a reason why both Latino and Black voters voted in such record numbers for Trump. He wasn’t the usual “business as usual”, make a lot of empty promises while reciting the standard campaign rhetoric that everyone but Reagan offered up for the last 50 years on the Republican side. A Trump / DeSantis ticket would draw a lot of support, because of the accomplishments both men have already proven they can achieve for the voters. However, DeSantis has already demonstrated he is up to the challenge, if Trump decides not to run in 2024.

If on the other hand the Republican Party reverts back to selecting from the broad field of RINO candidates that are already gearing up for a 2024 run (many for their second or even third try), the prospects for attracting the numbers of Latino and Black voters diminishes significantly and therefore makes thre outcome of 2024 far less certain. The Republican Party leadership still needs to learn what distinguished both Reagan and Trump from the usual Republican politicians that the Party tries to put up for President every 4 years. The wing of the Republican Party led by the likes of McConnell, Rove, and the rest of the “go along to get along with the Democrat types” still think the path to victory in both 2022 , 2024 and beyond lays in putting up RINO or Democrat-lite candidates that won’t rock the Washington inside the beltway boat too much. That would be a fatal mistake for the Party and the country.

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