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The Biggest Factor No One is Talking About

Posted on Tuesday, November 15, 2022
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by Daniel Berman
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AMAC Exclusive – By Daniel Berman

The 2022 midterms were not the national “Red Wave” many in both parties expected, but neither were they any sort of “Blue Wave.”

In fact, there are indications that while solid red states got redder, and solid blue states got redder, many purple state voters turned out seemingly to keep their state governments from one-party rule of any sort.

While it will take weeks or even months to reach full conclusions about how each party fared this November, one way of understanding this potential trend is by looking at the role of incumbency – and whether Republican or Democrat, incumbents faired exceptionally well.

At the heart of that pattern is one of the greatest differences between the last midterm cycle in 2018 and 2022. In 2018, 21 of 36 gubernatorial races, and 26 of 35 Senate races featured incumbents. Of those incumbents, six lost – one governor and five Senators. By contrast, in 2022, 29 of 36 gubernatorial elections featured incumbents and only one, Democrat Steve Sisolak in Nevada, lost, and that was by a margin of less than 2%. In turn, not a single incumbent Senator of either party was defeated.

There is, as we will see, a clear correlation between incumbency and the outcome of key races. Incumbents tended to win. But not all incumbents won by the same margins. Here is where another interesting pattern occurs. Republican incumbent governors, almost across the board, did much better than in 2018, especially in “red states.” Democrats, however, were a mixed bag. In “purple states,” Democratic incumbents did much better than in 2018. In safe Democratic states, however, incumbents generally did worse, but open-seat Democratic candidates much better.

That pattern becomes clear if we divide the nation’s states into three loose categories: “red states,” “purple states,” and “blue states.” “Red states” can be defined loosely as those in which Republicans enjoyed uncontested control of the state government, including the governorship and both houses of the legislature, and this control was not in serious question in 2022. The only relevant issue on the ballot was federal representation. Blue states are those where Democrats enjoyed unfettered control of state government, and where it was generally assumed this would not change no matter what happened this past week. That leaves the “purple states,” those with split control between a legislature (generally Republican), and a governor (generally a Democrat) of the opposite party, or where there was a substantial likelihood that control could shift from one party to another. That would mean that it was widely perceived that there was a real possibility that the Republican Party could take control of the entire state government in 2022.

Perception is important. Both Florida and Texas were safe Republican states, but Democratic voters perceived, wrongly, that Beto O’Rourke had a chance (making it a “purple state” in their minds at least), whereas few Democrats in Florida believed there was any chance to defeat Ron DeSantis. Equally, with hindsight, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington were likely safe Democratic states, but polling created the impression that the GOP was competitive, and in the case of Oregon could potentially win not just the governorship, but the legislature.

A rough classification of the country will produce the following (in the minds of the states’ voters if not in fact):

Red States: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Kentucky,  Nebraska, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming

Purple States: Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin

Blue States: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island

Let’s take a look at the 2018 and 2022 results for the gubernatorial races in the red states. While there are variations in how seriously contested they were, with a few exceptions it did not matter. Democrats did not seriously expect to win the governorship in Idaho, Nebraska, South Carolina, South Dakota, or Tennessee in 2018, and both analysts and pollsters believed they had a serious shot this year in Oklahoma and South Dakota, while they ran a former congressman in South Carolina. It did not make a difference. Democrats crashed to historic lows.

(In states without a governor’s race I have used a Senate contest if one is available with an *. If none was available I used the most recent, marked with ***.)

State 2018 Governor or Senate* Margin 2022 Governor or Senate* Margin
Alabama 59-41% R-incumbent 67%-29% R-incumbent
Arkansas 65%-32% R-incumbent 63%-35% R
Florida 49%-49% R 59%-40% R-incumbent
Idaho 60%-38% R 61%-20% R-incumbent
Iowa 51%-47% R-incumbent 58%-40% R-incumbent
Louisiana 61%-35% R- incumbent 63%-35% R* incumbent
Kentucky 59%-38%*** R-incumbent 62%-38% R-incumbent
Nebraska 59%-41% R- incumbent 61%-36% R
Oklahoma 54%-42% R 55%-42% R-incumbent
North Dakota 56%-44% R* D-incumbent 56%-25% R-incumbent *
Ohio 50%-46% R 63%-37% R-incumbent
South Carolina 54%-46% R-incumbent 58%-41% R-incumbent
South Dakota 51%-47% R 62%-35% R-incumbent
Tennessee 60%-39% R 65%-33% R-incumbent
Wyoming 67%-27% R 74%-16% R-incumbent

While the shift varies, states where Democrats put up respectable showings in hopeless races (Alabama, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Tennessee) saw their support collapse between 2018 and 2022, often by as much as 10%. States where Democrats made desperate last stands in 2018 and failed to prevent them from slipping away into “red state” status, including Florida, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, and South Dakota, ceased to even be competitive. The Democratic collapse continued down ballot in most, with Democrats losing seats in the legislatures of all of these states, as well as two of their three remaining statewide incumbents and their only remaining member of congress in Iowa. In these states, where control was not at stake, the voters did not surprise.

It is, however, the “purple states” where the upset of the election took place.

State 2018 Governor or Senate* Margin 2022 Governor or Senate* Margin
Alaska 54-44% R 51%-25% R-incumbent
Arizona 56%-41% R-incumbent 51%-49% D
Colorado 53%-43% D 57%-40% D-incumbent
Georgia 50%-48% R 53%-46% R-incumbent
Kansas 49%-47% D 49%-48% D-incumbent
Maine 51%-43% D 56%-43% D-incumbent
Michigan 61%-35% R 55%-44% D-incumbent
Minnesota 54%-42% D 52%-45% D- incumbent
New Hampshire 52%-46% R- incumbent 57%-42% R- incumbent
Nevada 50%-46% D 49%-47% R D-incumbent
New Mexico 56%-44% R* 52%- 46% D- incumbent
Oregon 50%-44% D- incumbent 47%-43% D
Pennsylvania 58%-41% D- incumbent 56%-42% D
Texas 57%-42% R- incumbent 55%-44% R- incumbent
Washington 58%-42%* D- incumbent 56%-44%* D- incumbent
Wisconsin 49%-48% D R- incumbent 51%-48% D- incumbent

The first thing that stands out is how many more incumbents there were in 2022 versus 2018. Incumbents were relatively rare in 2018, but mostly performed well. In Arizona, incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey won reelection by 15% even while Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won the Senate race by a 4% margin. Only one incumbent Governor was defeated in 2018, Republican Scott Walker in Wisconsin, and that by less than a percentage point.

In turn, there were a whole lot more incumbents of both parties around in 2022 than in 2018. What this meant is that most of the “purple” states which had Democratic incumbents were exactly those where Democrats outperformed. In turn, being a Republican incumbent helped, albeit seemingly less so in “purple states” where Brian Kemp enjoyed a net 2% swing in his reelection race, but Greg Abbott saw the same swing against him in Texas.

What is striking when we bring in “blue states” is how this incumbency advantage became something of a mixed blessing.

State 2018 Governor or Senate* Margin 2022 Governor or Senate* Margin
California 62%-38% D- incumbent 59%-41% D- incumbent
Connecticut 49%-46% D 56%-43% D- incumbent
Hawaii 63%-34% D- incumbent 63%-37% D
Illinois 55%-39% R- incumbent 54%-43% D-incumbent
Maryland 55%-44% R- incumbent 62%-35% D
Massachusetts 67%-33% R- incumbent 63%-35% D
New York 60%-36% D- incumbent 53%-47% D- incumbent
Rhode Island 53%-37% D- incumbent 58%-39% D- incumbent
Vermont 55%-40% R- incumbent 71%-24% R- incumbent

The first obvious standout is the strong performance of Republican incumbents in “blue states”. Almost by definition any Republican who won election in such a state was relatively strong. In turn, the absence of a Republican incumbent in Maryland and Massachusetts hurt the GOP badly. But beyond that, Democratic incumbents did not receive uniform benefits. In Rhode Island, it was a wash, perhaps because the Democratic “incumbent” in 2022 was the lieutenant governor who succeeded when his predecessor was appointed to the cabinet, and had never won election in his own right. Elsewhere, Democratic incumbency proved to be a liability. In California, Illinois, and New York, Democrats did worse in 2022 than in 2018.

How do we reconcile this data? Perhaps the answer lies in the role of Democratic governors in “purple states?” In those states, the elections were not just about the governorship, or who voters would prefer, but also who would control the entire state. In a number of states, including Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, “abortion” was on the ballot insofar as all three states had pre-Roe total or near total bans on abortion that Democratic governors were refusing to enforce, but their Republican opponents pledged to allow to go into effect. In “red states” the elections would make little difference to the legal status of abortion, nor would a loss by Gavin Newsom or Kathy Hochul have led to a change in its legal status with heavily Democratic legislatures. But in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin it could have been the difference between near total bans.

The influence of abortion as a single issue should not be overplayed. It is one of many. But the evidence is that when faced with a choice for divided or united government, many voters did not act as if Biden and the Democrats actually enjoyed united government to an extent requiring a check. Perhaps the very disorganization of national Democrats aided them here, as did the perception that conservatives already wielded institutional power through the courts and filibuster. Combined with the extent to which legislation over the past two years has been driven at the state level, a large portion of voters seem to have concluded that the more important place to defend divided government was at the state level.

Furthermore, control of a given state being in the balance made ideology more important than governance. In New York, the abject failure of governance in New York City was the only issue, as the ideological orientation of the state was not at stake. In Michigan, by contrast, the competence of Whitmer became less important than what her Republican opponents would do. Whether Whitmer executed her agenda incompetently was beside the point.

One conclusion that can be drawn by the strong performance of GOP incumbents everywhere, and the poor performance of Democrats in safe states of both blue and red hue is that the GOP wins when its elected officials focus on governance issues. The only place where Democrats overperformed tended to be where the GOP spent the last four years battling for political power rather than governing. This implies that good government and ideas for good government must come first. Because the evidence from New York and Alabama alike indicates when the GOP just focuses on who can better govern rather than who should rule, they do well.

Beyond that, we should be hesitant to read any sort of endorsement of Joe Biden into the data. Only one incumbent governor or Senator lost this year. There just happened to be a whole lot more incumbents around.

Daniel Berman is a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics. He also writes as Daniel Roman.  

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jjb
jjb
1 year ago

I just am at a loss across the board on the ‘big’ losses (PA, NY, and AZ in my mind). The cities are cesspools and yet the people living there just can’t see it. We won’t go in to NYC any more and they are the reason that Zeldin lost. I want a vibrant culture where different ideas are discussed, but at the same time common sense is involved. How these votes went wrong just flies in the face of common sense.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
1 year ago

Note how late ballots gave edge to AZ PA etc??
Rigged

Steven
Steven
1 year ago

You are correct – demonstrate good governance and you will win. Anyone can’t point out problems but people are looking for solutions.

J. Farley
J. Farley
1 year ago

No matter how you try to spin this election here in 2022 or put lipstick to try to make it look good this pig was still ugly, the Candidates nor the RNC made no effort to counter act the lies from the left. This election over the last two years was handed to the Republicans and they made the same old mistake, counting their chickens (votes) before they hatched, in my option we came up at least 10 Republicans in the U.S. House and 4 Senators short in the Senate, and if we continue to Rory and put a smiley face on it, we will come up short in 2024, we must campaign as if we are 10 points behind and since the current group that runs campaigns can’t cut it we must find new leaders.
No McCarthy, No McConnell, and No Ronna, Mcdaniels!

dave
dave
1 year ago

Now show us the totals without the fraud. Huge Red Wave. It will come out, the truth always does.

John Wright
John Wright
1 year ago

While I don’t like to admit this, Colorado is no longer a purple state. It is a DEEP blue state as of last Tuesday! It saddens me greatly. In large part, I blame the influx of Californians in particular along with the liberal elements from the likes of Texas and Florida amongst others.

Lois
Lois
1 year ago

When Republicans made Abortion &/or the last election being stolen their issue, Democrats won. It brought out voters normally not as committed to voting. Here in “purple” Michigan the top of the ticket all returned Democrats by making Republican candidates’ statements on abortion & the past election look radical. Added to that the state legislature has long been thoroughly Republican & that was overturned.

NV_Wilderness
NV_Wilderness
1 year ago

Interesting how here in NV for at least the last 3 elections (and likely further back), they keep counting “found” ballots until their candidate moves ahead of the GOP candidate – then they call the winner and quit counting. And they want us to believe this is all on the up and up. I call BS!

Debbi Reynard
Debbi Reynard
1 year ago

Missouri isn’t listed but we are a RED state!????????

sdgorton
sdgorton
1 year ago

You all are so gullible, the demoncrats, elitists, tech lords, & China have already taken over our elections. Wake up look at the results, the demoncrats will keep control pf the senate and before its all done with the cheating, changing votes , & buying off the election tabulators, the demoncrats will probably keep control of the house. The evil filthy bottom feeding Marxist liberals have control & will never relinquish again!!!!!

Diane M Cossin
Diane M Cossin
1 year ago

You need to check your article. The state of Missouri is NOT in it! Makes me wonder just how accurate it is.

Joe Rea
Joe Rea
1 year ago

Your definition of a purple state is difficult to comprehend. Pennsylvania is a blue state. 2 Liberal pro abortion Senators and a pro abortion liberal governor. Ditto Michigan and Arizona. Yes Republicans ran well in Texas and Florida but this election is a disaster for the Republicans and for the country. In 2024 we will have todays 16 and 17 year olds join the 18-29 year old as the most liberal pro abortion voting block in the history of America. At the same time older more conservative voters are dying off. The Republican should have picked up 5-8 more House Seats and 3 or 4 more Senate seats this cycle . The fact that voters preferred more Democrats after 2 years of economic and foreign policy disasters mean they will keep the Democrats in power no matter what. I appreciate that you want to find a silver lining but it is only silver plated. The fact that Arizona( the State that gave us Barry Goldwater ) have become so strongly pro Democrat indicates what happens when the Demographics change a state.

Lawrence Greenberg
Lawrence Greenberg
1 year ago

There are almost no articles on the elections of last Tuesday that want to address the elephant in the room: FRAUD. Although the Democrats have been engaging in voter registration and election fraud for more than 150 years (yes, you read that right), the phony “pandemic” of 2020 enabled them to create the circumstances that would allow fraud to be successful on a massive scale so they could steal the November 2020 elections. And the feckless Republicans, who cannot but have known full well that the massively successful fraud of November 2020 was surely going to be used again in November 2022, did next to nothing to stop it. As far as I can see, the only states that made any efforts to improve voting integrity since the November 2020 elections were Florida, Texas, and to some extent, Georgia. It was virtually inevitable that the Democrats would steal most of the elections yet again. Do the Republicans WANT to lose and see this country go down the drain?

Nick Patriot
Nick Patriot
1 year ago

Pennsylvania, home of the most ballot drop boxes, is now forever blue. The freeloading crowd just elected the first mentally retarded senator. He will soon be fulfilling his promise to empty the prisons of felons. Into the suburbs, no doubt, as Obama wanted it! Public housing will come to the suburbs! Bringing the crime, drugs carjackings and shootings, like in Philadelphia, with it! But don’t worry, you will still be able to have a third trimester abortion. Thanks democrats and communists!!

johnh
johnh
1 year ago

I do not think Biden or Trump had a positive spin on election, as exit polls showed disapproval ratings of 56% for both of them. Approval rate for both is low 43% and this says voters want some new people at the top of the two parties in next election & this also shows the divided country at this time.

KDESQ
KDESQ
1 year ago

Nice article, but way too complicated for most voters. Name recognition and down right brain washing through “news”, ads, lies from government are the main reasons. Along with, here in AZ, a badly corrupted election apparatus in Maricopa county.

Lee M
Lee M
1 year ago

Michigan will now be forever blue. Not only did the state legislature turn blue for the first time since 1984, the “electorate” voted in 3 proposals, one of which dooms the state to drop its voter ID laws and enshrines mail-in voting with virtually NO accountability. In fact, I will vote here in Indiana using my resident address, but sure as hell I will have a mailbox in Michigan to which a ballot will be sent, one that I did not request nor want. But you can bet, that ballot will be voted. When in Rome……

Sharon Ormsby
Sharon Ormsby
1 year ago

We voted to keep abortion illegal in Texas and kept our state red.

Gillian
Gillian
1 year ago

I disagree that the “biggest factor” is “the role of incumbency.” The biggest factor – by orders of magnitude – is ELECTION THEFT!

Ralph S. Turk
Ralph S. Turk
1 year ago

I guess Montana is no longer a state or at least the Control function can not find it.

Marc Ziegler
Marc Ziegler
1 year ago

This is too confusing for me, I pine for the days when we knew who to vote for in an election, and one that was determined in on day, where elections did not go on for months! Politics has become a corrupt business, were politicians look out for themselves, only to make money and do the least for who elected them. Populism has changed that a little. People rag on Trump for being to blunt at time, but he was one of the first Presidents, in modern times, to say what he was going to do and really did it with little exceptions. We got to go back to the times when lying is not on the agenda and the elections are fair!!

GTPATRIOT
GTPATRIOT
1 year ago

Another election “denier” article by AMAC. The Repubs had their
a____s__es kicked on Nov 8. Just suck it up. If the Repubs use their 2022 “game
plan” (which wasn’t a plan) in 2024, they will lose 100 House seats.

Thomas Wuthrich
Thomas Wuthrich
1 year ago

Following the 8 November election, Michigan has a Democrat governor, a Democrat Sec of State, a Democrat AG (all three of whom were incumbents), plus a Democrat state senate, a Democrat state house and a Democrat state supreme court. Given their ability, now, to tailor election laws to favor Democrats, it’s hard to imagine Republicans ever again being elected to positions of power in this state. Did I mention that both of Michigan’s US senators are also…Democrats? We are on the way to becoming “California on the Great Lakes.”

Don Reid
Don Reid
1 year ago

Here’s what’s strange. We know Other “handlers” write the speeches Biden simply reads. Was it a “Freudian slip” or did the Biden team already know something before the election, when Biden spent the days leading up to the election warning about “election deniers”? Question: if all experts expect a major Red wave, a 52)48-ish Senate, 240/195 – House, where is the logic in PRE-EMPTIVELY warning people to accept the results without questioning them? Riddle me that one…????

Don Reid
Don Reid
1 year ago

Paper ballots. Same day voting, must request vote by mail to receive. Not not just mass mail out ballots. receive mail ins by election day for them to Count. Count them first and publish when the polls close. Voter ID so only those supposed to vote actually vote. Is that really that complicated? Fla counted more votes than Az and Nev COMBINED in 3 hours. Only those wanting to rig/cheat/steal should have a problem with this.

Dread
Dread
1 year ago

You split 50 states into three categories that total 39 states. Wow! With that kind of modern math I’m sure I won’t be able to follow the rest of your logic.

Letts Brandon
Letts Brandon
1 year ago

Perhaps there was a red wave just election fraud kept it from being seen. Democrats have proved they are excellent at cheating. Places where baby killing may have been the difference just proves how evil people of this country have become and they shall be punished for it which means more Marxist rule no matter how it is achieved.

Jannine
Jannine
1 year ago

Wow – the author of this article had to do a LOT of work in order to avoid saying our elections are stolen and now so is our method of elections.

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