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Senate Control in Play

Posted on Tuesday, September 13, 2022
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AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman

Senate

Control of the U.S. Senate, now divided 50-50 by political party, yet run by the Democrats who hold the tie-breaking vice presidency, is very much in play with just less than two months before Election Day.

But the prospects for Republicans, after a brief interval of doubt, are brightening once again, as Democratic claims of a last-minute surge are not being confirmed by new polling and on-the-ground observation.

Nevertheless, very little is certain in a cycle with dramatic events and several unorthodox political candidates.

Those circumstances include a significantly unpopular first-term Democratic president, a “bear” stock market, rising prices of most goods and services, a historic U.S. Supreme Court decision on abortion, chronic problems at the U.S.-Mexican border, controversial major legislation, the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, widespread anti-parent school boards, rising urban crime, and a persisting and expensive war in Ukraine.

Initially, Democrats feared that they could not avoid a negative voter reaction to the Biden administration’s actions and policies in the national mid-term elections. Democratic strategists then inaugurated a series of countermeasures, including passing a trillion-dollar public spending bill, forgiving of hundreds of billions of dollars of college student loans, a pro-choice campaign attacking the recent Supreme Court decision, and numerous hardball ad hominem attacks on 2022 Republican candidates.

All of the above efforts were intended to counter the voter mood accumulating against them, but the only one that appears to be providing a clear boost for Democrats so far is the pro-choice abortion campaign. The misnamed Inflation Reduction Act turned out to be yet another partisan spending bill while wiping out college debt owed by mostly affluent Americans has angered those who have paid off their debt and did not receive the government gift. Poor schools and accelerating urban crime rates persist. So-called smear campaigns are becoming so prevalent they are having little effect in those cases when Republican candidates refuse to be put on the defensive and fight back. However, several GOP challengers are facing well-funded opponents, and are being greatly outspent in the media where they are being attacked.

At the outset of the cycle, it was believed that there were eight competitive races — four with Democratic incumbents (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) and four Republican-held seats (Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania).

At the height of the early GOP red wave optimism, the Democratic Senate races remained in play, and the GOP seats appeared to be less competitive. Then a series of polls appeared that upended conservative optimism, including polls indicating a bit of a surge for President Biden.

The slight surge for the President has held up (although he remains at 55-45 unfavorable), but newer Senate polls indicate Republican Senate incumbents and challengers hold leads or ties in most of the eight races — and that several contests considered “safe” Democratic, including Colorado, Washington state, and Vermont, as well as a “safe” GOP seat (Ohio), are in play.

However, although the newest polls were somewhat reassuring to Republicans, it is important to point out that all twelve senate races remain in various states of play. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains optimistic, especially in U.S. House races, for big GOP gains, but even an optimist like Gingrich warns against the complacency of assuming election outcomes without aggressive GOP campaigning and heavy turnout.

At the campaign level, Democrats are pulling out all the stops to keep their tenuous hold on power at the federal level. They no longer control most state governments and non-urban areas, and the GOP seems on course to even add to its share of governors and state legislators in 2022.

Democrats’ problem is that in spite of having the most campaign funds, and the better get-out-the-vote organization, they are losing base voters at the grass roots level, particularly from the key groups of Hispanic and working-class voters they have depended on in the past.

Many of the Senate races in play involve one or more unorthodox nominees, including Pennsylvania, where both nominees, Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz, defeated conventional rivals; Ohio, where GOP nominee J.D. Vance emerged; Arizona, where Blake Masters won to be on the GOP ballot; Wisconsin, where leftist Democrat Mandela Barnes beat a more traditional liberal; and Georgia, where football legend Herschel Walker is the GOP nominee. Fetterman started off strong, but now seems to be imploding under scrutiny, and after slow starts, Oz, Vance, Masters, and Walker seem to be gaining some momentum.

Now past Labor Day, and with airwaves and mailboxes filled constantly with political advertising, previously undecided voters are paying attention, making up their minds, and in some cases, casting their votes early. The polls, as Election Day draws closer, usually become more accurate — although their recent history has been mixed.

The one big question mark that will probably remain until the night of November 8, however, will be which party will control the U.S. Senate come 2023. With the highest stakes in any mid-term election in memory, the two parties are certain to battle it out to the very end.

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Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
1 year ago

Always was in play less than House BUT Vital

Joseph
Joseph
1 year ago

Please folks get out and vote in massive numbers. Please go vote. We must vote in large enough numbers to overcome the Rat’s fraud. We can do it. Please encourage people to vote whether in a red state or blue state. Get out there. It will be the only way to stop this assault on our great President Trump and his policies. MAGA

Michael J
Michael J
1 year ago

Polls seem to be another form of propaganda. A recent poll reported Biden’s apparent rising approval rating was a remarkable turnabout, in reality surveyed by less than 2000 participants, but portrayed as a national trend. The facts speak for themselves.

legally present
legally present
1 year ago

After the beating at the hands of the Democrats, WHY would any sane person want to vote for a Democrat??? They are costing us thousands of $$$ EACH, and IF they do still control the Senate, be prepared for a mass Amnesty, and all the other things they say are good for us, but we hate!!

anna hubert
anna hubert
1 year ago

I don’t care who is in control as long as our borders are secure,we are safe on our streets,businesses are doing well and children are properly taught

ops
ops
1 year ago

A vote for a Democrat is a vote against America!

Mary
Mary
1 year ago

We have a big problem with voting in this country. There are the complacent “can’t talk politics” types who want to live here, but won’t support our beautiful USA. The leftist liberal types who will go to any length to sabotage elections. *Then there are the rest of us hard working citizens who love this USA, want those who WE elected to work FOR us, keep our police on duty to control crime, instill values again in our schools, and finally bring back the integrity and respect through our Lord that we do desperately need.*

Hope that clears up a lot of unanswered questions in a nutshell!

Patricia A Arsenault
Patricia A Arsenault
1 year ago

NH is looking good guys/gals. We are hoping for General Bolduc and Karoline Leavitt. I must go vote now! 🙂

Sharon Ormsby
Sharon Ormsby
1 year ago

However, we lost what should have been a sure win in Alaska! We can’t expect sure wins in any state!

jocko
jocko
1 year ago

DON’T WORRY, THE CANCEROUS, ANTI-AMERICAN, LYING CHEAING libs WILL AGAIN CHEAT ON THE ELECTIONS. THERE IS ONLY ONE SURE AND PERMANENT WAY TO STOP them AND IT’S NOT THRU ELECTIONS…………

Art
Art
1 year ago

Right now the cackling fool who controls the decisive vote is running at her mouth as if everything is a done deal, She has done nothing in her tenure so far except make word salad pronouncements. Please work hard and vote for conservatives. Only then will K.H. do what she does best== sit in a chair and do nothing but write up “help wanted ads.” She may have to change to part time hires because they don’t last long in her environment.

Jan13
Jan13
1 year ago

NYS is running scare tactics about abortion, NY, along with other states will allow you to abort your baby. Funny how they don’t want the death penalty for convicted murderers, but are fine with a “ death penalty” for a baby. For me, I look more at what I’m paying for groceries, gas, heat, rent, electric, bigger concerns than abortion.

Edward
Edward
1 year ago

Republicans need to handle abortion issue in a positive/uniform way if they want to win the Senate.

Rik
Rik
1 year ago

NO CONGRESSIONAL SEATS ARE IN PLAY! . . . WHY? . . . Because I haven’t seen where ANY Republicans have guaranteed that the Progressively.Communist Democrats AREN’T GOING TO CHEAT & STEAL the Mid-term Elections too! In fact, name ANY Republicans who call out ANY DEMOCRATS AS NOW BEING COMMUNIST? . . . They’re ALL power hungry rats!

Kay
Kay
1 year ago

Questionable that it will be a fair election. Some states are going to allow illegal to vote. The communist democrat party will do anything to steal this election.

J Rea
J Rea
1 year ago

When we look at the record of the Biden Harris Schumer Pelosi Team we have to ask how any voter can consider voting to send a Democrat to the House or Senate. On the Economy a failure. On Energy a Failure. The Border a failure. Afganistan a failure. Iran a failure. Unifying the country a failure. Covid a failure. Healthcare costs a failure. Crime a colossal failure. We have had a Congress which would have done better if they did nothing. Their so called successes have killed the economy and fueled inflation and if we reelect Schumer and Pelosi as leaders we will have more of the same. They will spend us into a Recession. We voters need to send a message. FIRE SCHUMER AND FIRE PELOSI. Especially voters in Arizona Nevada Wisconsin Pennsylvania New Hampshire Georgia and North Carolina Your Democrat Senator ( or candidate ) doesnt represent your views and operates as a Biden Rubber Stamp . We need a House and Senate that will stand up to Biden. FIRE SCHUMER AND FIRE PELOSI. Vote out the Democrats and Vote in the.Republican.

phoenix
phoenix
1 year ago

I don’t know why, Because ultimately it will make no difference because Its all just one big club (which we are not a part of) But I will feel better when Republicans take the Senate.

I’m for 100% gridlock at the federal level ad infinitum, el Astra, forever.

I want it so stuck that they simply stop showing up and leave us alone.

We really don’t need ANY OF THEM.

Ron Howard
Ron Howard
1 year ago

I feel hopeful and optimistic about the GOP retaking the House and the Senate, but really hope that Mitch McConnell is not reelected, or that he will never be Senate Majority Leader again! Regardless, it is up to us, the constituents, to flood the House and Senate with demands for appropriate action! Unfortunately, the Biden Administration can still do a tremendous amount of harm in the 5 months between now and January.

J. Farley
J. Farley
1 year ago

The Republicans (the RNC) need to get someone who can get Republican Candidates across this country to get and say on message. The Republicans need to get off the 2020 Election, its done and over with, get off Abortion, only explain how the 10th Amendment works, stay away from the personal atacks, be better that the Democrats.
The Republicans need to talk about the Economy, and how the American dream is being destroyed for millions of Americans, including a large segment of the Seniors. The Republicans need to stay on message about border security, the lack of which is creating a major drug and crime and making America venerable to another 9-11 style terrorist attack. They need to talk about Energy independence that includes all forms of energy. The Republicans need to harp on how to control crime. The Republicans need to point out with specific examples of the double standard and how the Democrats get special treatment for crimes the Republicans get punished for to the full extent of the law. Religous freedom, Freedom of Speech, and Press. The Republicans need to talk about the fundimental right of self-defense and the Right of the People to Keep and Bear Arms.
They need to be brief but concise, don’t ramble and leave time in speaking events to allow time for questions from those who go out of their way to attend the rally.
It amazes me the lack of leadership and falure to comunicate.

David Millikan
David Millikan
1 year ago

Add the Weaselcrats allowed 323 TERRORIST in from Afghan with MILLIONS of the ILLEGAL ALIEN TERRORIST INVASION and SWAMP QUEEN pelosi backing it up not IMPEACHING
DICTATOR Beijing biden for ESPIONAGE and TREASON including THREAT to NATIONAL SECURITY and AMERICAN LIVES and LIVELIHOODS.
Now, they are going to ATTACK our ENERGY to INCREASE Fuel Cost before and after Midterm Election.
Best part is Economy cause there is NO ECONOMY. Today Stocks FELL 1,276 pts. Get ready for a Free-fall cause it’s coming.
ALL compliments of DICTATOR Beijing biden and Weaselcrats.

Garye
Garye
1 year ago

Let’s go America, throw the marxist democrat party pretenders out of office at EVERY opportunity.
SAVE Our Country, Protect Our God Given Rights and Freedom!
The marxist democrat party MUST BE EMBARRASSED into a non-existent ,defeated traitor of America!!!
THROW THEM OUT

Myrna Wade
Myrna Wade
1 year ago

I wonder if the people who became hysterical about the return of abortion to the states are driven to this by guilt. Media spreads notions such as “abortion was a constitutional right.”
A right to unlimited abortion could have been a law, but it is not.
The unrelenting attacks on President Trump and the failure to stop the harassment of the supreme court justices might seem to be working, but one-sided justice is not popular and (probably) will not continue.

Twyla
Twyla
1 year ago

Pro Choice means Choices: which CHOICE is most for Civil Rights!
?

I am the Pro-Life choice
Vs
The Pro-Death choice

I can not kill (actions to stop life) my children after birth, why is it even legal to end (sacrifice) their live before birth?

The only difference is “age

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