Newsline

Newsline , Society

Poll Proved Early Indicator of Republicans’ “Second Wind”

Posted on Friday, October 21, 2022
|
by Shane Harris
|
26 Comments
|
Print

AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris

Republicans

After narratives of a “Democratic resurgence” dominated headlines in August and September, Republicans are now heading into the final weeks of the fall campaign on strong footing to regain control of both chambers of Congress. The emergence of this “second wind” for Republicans appears to have been detected early by a poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group for AMAC last month (covered extensively by AMAC Newsline) which outlined the contours of what the prophesized Red Wave might look like.

A number of key findings from the poll – which surveyed 1,078 likely voters from September 21-26 – suggested that Democrats were in far more trouble than optimistic headlines were indicating.

For instance, the poll found that a majority of voters – 51.5 percent – said Biden cares “much less” about the middle class than prior presidents. That number includes 21.7 percent of Democrats and, crucially, 54.7 percent of Independents. Just 23.7 percent of Independents said Biden cares “much more” about the middle class than prior presidents.

As AMAC Newsline noted, those results indicate a growing “empathy gap” that completely undermines Biden’s branding of himself as “Middle Class Joe” and an “everyman” president. That’s bad news for Democrats down ballot who are associated with Biden and his policies.

Despite Democrats believing that a slight reduction in sky-high gas prices, low unemployment, and the Russia-Ukraine war would be the party’s saving grace on the economy, the AMAC/Trafalgar poll suggested that voters were still deeply angry about the country’s financial state, and overwhelmingly blamed Biden. Just 6.7 percent of respondents blamed the Russian invasion of Ukraine for inflation – a narrative the Biden administration has desperately tried to sell for months. When asked which of several factors was “most responsible” for inflation, a majority (52.1 percent) selected “Biden administration,” compared to just 15.4 percent who said “Trump administration” (another line constantly pushed by the White House).

Now, as inflation continues to sit near record highs and gas prices begin to tick back up in spite of Biden’s ploy to recklessly empty the country’s strategic oil reserves in hopes of saving Democrats’ election chances, voters are only more likely to take their frustration out on Democratic candidates.

On crime, which polls consistently show is another top issue for voters this fall, Biden and liberal policies also received poor marks. In total, 55.4 percent of respondents said rising violent crime is primarily a result of either lenient prosecutors, the Biden administration, lack of police presence, or immigration. Given the Biden administration’s failures on immigration, Democrats’ association with the “Defund the Police” movement, and the rise of far-left prosecutors in many American cities, this mix of answers does not bode well for Biden or his party.

The AMAC/Trafalgar poll also pointed to the re-emergence of education and parents’ rights as critical issues in midterm races. When asked if they “agree with the Biden Administration Education Department’s proposed policy requiring school children to attend mandatory counseling without parental consent if they refuse to use the preferred pronouns of their transgender classmates,” referring to a plan recently outlined by the Biden administration, 82 percent of respondents answered “No.” That figure includes 93.2 percent of Hispanics, 73 percent of Blacks, 68.6 percent of Democrats, and 83.3 percent of Independents. While other issues like the economy and crime have risen to the forefront this year after education featured heavily in contests last year, continuing debate over radical gender ideology and left-wing indoctrination in classrooms is clearly still a major concern for voters and a winning issue for conservatives.

On several other issues, Biden and Democrats were underwater as well. 51.4 percent said the Biden administration has “crossed an important ethical line” in pursuing political opponents – including 54.4 percent of Independents. 53.2 percent of respondents and 59.2 percent of Independents said they did not approve of Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan. 86.8 percent of Republicans, 61.4 percent of Independents, and a notable 28.1 percent of Democrats (59.9 percent overall) said they were “not comfortable” with the increase of federal involvement and intervention in their daily lives under the Biden administration. And 54.8 percent of respondents, including 20.1 percent of Democrats and 55.5 percent of Independents, said things have gotten worse for senior citizens under Biden.

On all of these issues, the AMAC/Trafalgar poll also found that Democrats have serious problems with minority voters – something mainstream outlets are only now beginning to pick up on. Notably, Democrats appear to be in freefall among Latinos, with the group expressing much more frustration than the overall sample with Biden’s policies. 61 percent of Latinos said the administration cares “much less” about the middle class than prior administrations, compared to 51.5 percent overall. On student loans, Hispanics disapproved of Biden’s debt forgiveness plan by a margin of 70.9 percent to 29.1 percent, compared to 53.2 percent and 40.3 percent overall. Latino voters also blamed Biden more than any other group for inflation and were more disapproving of Biden’s perceived breach of “ethical lines” in pursuing political opponents.

The poll also found some cracks in Democratic support among Black voters. Although Biden won nearly 90 percent of the Black vote in 2020, 20 percent of Blacks surveyed said that the President cares “much less” about the middle class than prior administrations. 25.7 percent said Biden was “most responsible” for inflation, while 29.4 percent said they were “not comfortable” with the increase in federal involvement in their lives under the Biden administration. Taken together, these findings suggest that GOP gains with minority voters will play a critical role in a potential Red Wave.

In the few weeks remaining until Election Day, it will be up to Republican candidates and campaigns to capitalize on Democrat struggles with voters outlined in this poll. How well they fare will likely go a long way toward determining who holds the majority come January.

***

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. 

Share this article:
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
26 Comments
Most Voted
Newest Oldest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Boz
Boz
1 year ago

Dominion will have a “second wind” of stealing 2022 just like 2020, since NOT one thing has been done about it.

jocko
jocko
1 year ago

THE libs WILL CHEAT ON THE ELECTIONS AGAIN

J. Farley
J. Farley
1 year ago

The Republicans’ chances would improve greatly if that RINO slime-ball Mitt Romney would get off his back side and help Senator Mike Lee in Utah, the good people of Utah need to remember what a low life he is and boot his Ass out when he is up for re-election next time and the RNC, needs to replace his Niece at the top of the RNC, if she can’t persuade him to do so, it’s party treason, that he won’t help.
Make America great again, get rid of Mitt Romney!

Philip Hammersley
Philip Hammersley
1 year ago

Don’t worry, “Marie” Biden says “Let them eat ice cream!”

Morbious
Morbious
1 year ago

We shall soon know, but here in ohio, yard signs are about twenty to one favoring the dems.

Susan
Susan
1 year ago

Thank you for the update and for partnering with Trafalgar. Is Trafalgar sharing this information with other media outlets? Americans want to save our Nation from socialism/communism. With the Biden administration/regime, and those who placed him in office, that’s exactly where they want to take this nation. We must return to One Nation Under God! This is His way: We must follow Jesus and love Him, and love others. No greed and no evil.

David Millikan
David Millikan
1 year ago

And the DOJ wants ANOTHER $36 MILLION of OUR TAX DOLLARS TO WASTE ON JANUARY 6 WITCH HUNT to drag out their Soap Opera production till 2024 Election instead of ARRESTING and PROSECUTING Hunter biden.
Typical DOUBLE STANDARD as usual for Weaselcrats. DOJ doesn’t arrest and prosecute Weaselcrats. DOJ ONLY ATTACKS and ARREST INNOCENT AMERICANS.

Chris
Chris
1 year ago

The answer to ALL of this is in Agenda 2030,(used to be called Agenda 21). (un.gov)
If you want to know why all the chaos in this country and the world go read Agenda 2030.

Hal
Hal
1 year ago

To even get the majority liberal/DemocRat leaning news industry to admit the DemocRats is a bit of a surprise. Much of the liberal news media subtly promotes disparaging differences in the body politic because it sells news more profitably for them. And IMO the majority of news media still favors the lib DemocRats largely because they know how out of touch, they are … which makes news more profitable to sell to the public.

Robin W Boyd
Robin W Boyd
1 year ago

Seeing that most polls are liberal biased already, one should think that Progressive Democrats do not have as much support as the polls suggest. Only voting fraud will prevent the alleged red wave because Americans don’t want Socialism.

Randall L. Beatty
Randall L. Beatty
1 year ago

Dems stay as far away from Biden as they can but what they have done to this country it is not just Biden but all there failed policies that they have been doing since they came into power, we need a change before it is to late and we pay the price for decades to come not just us but other generations to come as well. This November we can make a change we need to time to back this country.

An older blonde women laughing in the kitchen with a grey haired man.
AMAC’s Medicare Advisory Service
The knowledge, guidance, and choices of coverage you’re looking for. The exceptional service you deserve.
The AMAC App on 3 different iPhone
Download the AMAC App
The AMAC App is the place to go for insightful news wherever you are and whenever you want.
U.S. Air Force Uniform with DEI written on pocket
nasa; science and physics
Patrick Henry. Oil on canvas
rishi sunak; british; conservative

Stay informed! Subscribe to our Daily Newsletter.

"*" indicates required fields

26
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x

Subscribe to AMAC Daily News and Games