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Off-Year Election Omens

Posted on Monday, November 13, 2023
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by Barry Casselman
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AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman

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In 2021, Republican success in several high-profile off-year elections were interpreted by most observers to signal a GOP wave in 2022. In the end, Republicans did narrowly take back the U.S. House of Representatives, but lost a net of one U.S. Senate seat, and except in a few states underperformed lofty expectations.

This lack of voter follow-through happened for a variety of reasons, but was apparently due in significant part to many independent women turning out to support their pro-choice views in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade early in 2022. A second reason why Republicans underperformed in races for the Senate and House was that the GOP failed to recruit, in many cases, outstanding candidates to run in competitive races.

In the 2023 off-year elections just completed, Republicans once again did not do as well as they hoped, but there were very few contests of consequence. The question still remains: does 2023 forecast 2024?

A popular Democrat governor in the otherwise red state of Kentucky won re-election. Until a few days before the election, no one expected any other result, but a final poll suggested that the Republican challenger had closed the race to a virtual tie. That poll turned out to be an outlier, and the Democrat won by a relatively comfortable margin. At the same time, Republicans won every other statewide race, including for lieutenant governor, by big margins.

In the other gubernatorial race on Tuesday, Mississippi voters re-elected their GOP governor by a comfortable margin, as well as giving conservatives a sweep of statewide offices. Earlier this year, voters in Louisiana also replaced their Democrat Governor with Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry.

In Ohio, a reliable Republican state, an abortion rights ballot question passed, as did a ballot question legalizing marijuana.

In Virginia, the man who was primarily responsible for GOP optimism after the 2021 off-year elections, Governor Glenn Youngkin (who had won an upset victory that year), led an effort to win control of the state senate. He narrowly failed, and Virginia Republicans also narrowly lost control of the state House of Delegates following redistricting. Disappointing, yes, but hardly a political omen — although it probably ended a boomlet for Youngkin to run for president in 2024.

Based on the above, some liberal political commentators are already seeing in the results clear signs for next year’s national election. Predictably, the Biden administration is touting 2023 as a vindication for the president.

But what in reality can be gleaned from the few 2023 elections?

One lesson seems clear. Abortion rights restrictions will still motivate pro-choice voters, especially women, to vote for Democrats. Pro-life voters won the key victory last year in the U.S. Supreme Court when Roe vs. Wade was overturned, and the issue was returned to the states. Most Republicans are pro-life, but many independents, especially women, who might otherwise vote for Republicans, draw the line on abortion rights restrictions. Already, many Republican strategists are urging their party and its candidates to use caution in regard to expanding abortion restrictions in battleground states. The results in Ohio would seem to confirm this.

The second reason for GOP underperformance in 2022, the quality of Republican challengers, especially in competitive U.S. Senate races, already seems to be being addressed. Under Senate campaign chair Senator Steve Daines, strong conservative challengers seem to have been recruited for most races.

Another GOP disadvantage which helped Democrats in 2020 and 2021 was the expansion of the voting process with mail-in voting and ballot harvesting. Republican campaigns are reportedly encouraging their voters to make use of these new expansions of Election Day, as well as tighten ballot integrity and election security. 

An off-year election in recent cycles does not offer real omens or trends for the next cycle, especially with so very few major contests. Of course, pundits and party publicists inevitably try to interpret the few elections to have greater implications than they do, but to suggest that 2023 signals a “blue wave” is about as useful as suggesting there would be a “red wave” in the 2022 cycle based solely on 2021 results.

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Rik
Rik
8 months ago

What? . . . No mention of CHEATING? . . . J***s Joe Biden didn’t win legitimately and the fool LIES Everytime He Opens His Mouth to speak yet I would expect him to be “reelected” because stupid Republicans haven’t done enough to guarantee truthful elections! . . . So NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

mikem
mikem
8 months ago

it seems it’s more important to kill innocent children in the womb than it is to save this country from complete destruction.

PaulE
PaulE
8 months ago

Here are the major reasons for the majority of election loses in 2023:

1) Lack of a coherent message from both the Republican Party and many Republican candidates on abortion to counter the Democrat scare tactics that were running non-stop for several months before election day. When only one side is fighting, it isn’t hard to guess who will likely come out on top after an election.

All the end of Roe actually did was return the issue of abortion to the individual states, where each state’s voters have the right to tell their legislatures how they want the issue handled. This is called federalism, which is what the framers of the Constitution enshrined in our Constitution. In places like California, New York, New Jersey and other Democrat run states, that means that their own state constitutions already have enshrined abortion up to including the date of birth. So, they already went far beyond Roe long before Roe was over-turned by the SC. Net change to the Democrat run states was ZERO. Yet the Democrats were very successful at stoking fear and outrage in many of the exact same states and elsewhere over what amounted to a non-event in their respective states. In Republican led states, the states were free to enact what they wanted as well with the voters’ support. Where the problem exists is in election cycle after election cycle, the Republican party establishment and the RNC absolutely are terrible in terms of messaging. As in essence, they either say nothing and hope they win with little to no real effort expended on their part or they trot out convoluted and stale, old talking points to dance around the issue without providing a compelling rationale for their perspective.

2) Lack of money spent to counter the constant fear mongering and disinformation messaging from the Democrats. This coupled with a lack of a coherent and concise unified message to begin with from the leaders of the Republican Party kind of set the stage for the type of election results we got.

If you just look at the numbers, in terms of dollars spent per race in each state, the Democrats outspent most Republicans in a number of elections by two or three to one. Money does matter and it always will. Money is a tool to facilitate getting the message out to the people. Stop whing about campaign finance reform, because that ship sailed long ago and we’re not going back to some bygone days that were largely an illusion to begin with. We have to deal with things as they are and step up our game, NOT as how we would like them to be.

The RNC and many of the leaders in the establishment wing of the GOP, the McConnell’s of the world and their followers, were stingy with both money and messaging as they always are. The old guard GOP establishment seems content to “lose with dignity” than adapt to the changing dynamics of how the Democrats play the game. They seem content with merely maintaining the old status quo of how Washington, D.C. runs instead of addressing the challenges the country faces each and every day.

Articles, like the one above, talk of pundits and other inside the Washington beltway types for guidance on why the election results turned out the way they did. That is the equivalent of a self-reinforcing echo chamber of people completely detached from the real world trying to explain events they have no real insight into. It may make for a great academic exercise, but it doesn’t address the real issues that brought about the results we experienced.

Sorry for the long comment, but some of these navel gazing articles by folks inside the beltway really serve no purpose other than trying to spin that we somehow won when we largely lost.

Wayne Peterkin
Wayne Peterkin
8 months ago

Read Jason Chaffetz’s article on the Fox News website this morning to see one of the ways the democrats slant elections in their favor. There is no honor on the left and never has been. They will lie, cheat, steal, whatever to get their way and Biden is very good at that. He built a political career on dishonesty.

Vilas Gamble
Vilas Gamble
8 months ago

I think it is a real shame that pro-abortion voters would throw away their constitutional rights that are under threat from Joe Biden and the Democrats in order to be able to continue killing babies. What are they going to do when illegal immigrants overrun their community and crime rises as a result? Are they willing to put up with ever rising inflation, higher taxes, being told what kind of car they will be allowed to drive, what appliance they are allowed to use to fix their meals, what kind of furnace they can purchase in order to heat their homes, or what farmers are allowed to do when providing food to feed the nation? Is it ok with them that we continue to kowtow to China, Iran and Russia? Are they willing to have the Bill of Rights ignored in order to be able to kill babies? My hope is that there will be overwhelming number of voters who care more about the future of the Republic than to see it destroyed over one issue!

David Coe
David Coe
8 months ago

The Abortion Message is really very simple, it is in the form of a question;
Since when is it permissible to murder the innocent?
Dear Republican Party, before the next election, get the message out, that it is not, never has been, and never will be.
Hearts will have to change before votes do, it is just that simple.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
8 months ago

Election losses due to:
Poor RNC DC Estd
Status quo
Pressure by Dems?
RINOs, Never Trumpers
Uninformed voters
Keep DC Swamp active via Ronna
NO Vision
NOT following Dem voting modes

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
8 months ago

Dems prepared GOP was NOT
Thanks Ronna & RNC Estd

anna hubert
anna hubert
8 months ago

Here we go again Economy is a disaster border is flooded with invading hordes army is busy to accommodate the LGBTQ schools are brainwashing not teaching China is our creditor no law and order but the most important issue is the abortion The one person who spoke of it all without squirming will probably be put to jail for the time being so there is no interference with the results of “election” Kafka and Orwell combined would not top that

ERH
ERH
8 months ago

Every election from the local, to the state and federal elections needs to be gone over with a fine-tooth comb from now on. There is too much of an opportunity for fraud at every level of government from dog catcher up to the highest offices in the land. We MUST put an end to all of the election fraud period and let the chips fall where they may.

Donald K Dalton
Donald K Dalton
8 months ago

Abortion is an independent moral choice. The Republican party must STOP pretending that it is a messaging problem. That ship sailed long ago. Mitch McConnell’s time has passed. He, much like Biden, should get out of the way.

J. FARLEY
J. FARLEY
8 months ago

Here are some facts to consider, 1) The Democrat campaign machine, 2) The will of Demonrats to vote early (and Offen). 3) Republicans’ failure to have more than one issue, 4) Failure to give the message that the most principal issue is our Constitutional freedoms, and the Bill of Rights, (Including the 2nd Amendment) 5) Failure to overcome the lies of the left. 6) too many RINO’s, 6) Incompetence at the top of the RNC, McDaniel’s and her minion need to go, bring back Reince Priebus.
Just my opinion!
God Bless America, WIN, WIN, WIN!
If you can’t dazzle them with your brilliance, baffle them with your Bulls##t!

Texas Resister 64
Texas Resister 64
8 months ago

Those who think pro-life messaging is a loser need to look at races in which the Rep candidate had a clear message like banning abortion after a heartbeat is detected running against a Dem who wants abortion legal throughout pregnancy up to the moment of birth. That’s the default Dem position now. In such races, the stolid Republican has the edge, particularly if he/she then goes after things like the economy, border security, strong foreign policy, etc.

ref
ref
8 months ago

One of the reasons Republicans don’t gain the support of conservatives is that they will not unite to fight the radical Democrats. The Republican law makers who voted against the impeachment of Mayorkas have failed the people who elected them. Shameful!

Stabe
Stabe
8 months ago

As long as morality continues to crumble in favor of self centered satisfaction at the demise of others, called pro-choice, the murder of the unborn innocent will continue while this group never looks back and certainly has no conscience. In order to have a conscience one must have some semblance of morality.

Michael Stevens
Michael Stevens
8 months ago

The results of the recent election indicate the direction and division of the people in our country. Instead of wringing our hands and complaining, the GOP should focus on things we can (hopefully) control. 1- election integrity and cleaning up voter rolls, 2- eliminating the public (i.e. tax dollars) expense of abortion, 3- nationwide rule-of-law enforcement of 2A violaters, 4- correction(s) enforcement, 5 -impeachment of failed federal employee positions, 6- district attorneys disbarment, 7-Medicare/medicaid rule of law, 8- GOP party membership review. (i.e. asking party members to leave if they don’t support the platform by their voting record) etc…..

mark
mark
8 months ago

We did again totally loose this round of elections again just like PaulE said ,, and nothing will change when you have one side making issues and pushing them and the other side sitting there slack jawed looking to see who is going to move first ,, this is how we have and will continue to loose our once great REPUBLIC ,, the money is being made in DC and that is all that matters to the elite Socialist and there so called Republican yes people. WE THE PEOPLE have and will be suffering this for a long time to come.

Thinking
Thinking
8 months ago

There is no election that can be predicted by the polls.
The city I live in went totally left of left. Progressive they call it. The pro abortion people support killing babies up to birth. And women support this. Because the left has scared them into thinking the reps will take that away. Reasonable abortion limits are always going to be at the forefront here and elsewhere. I think we are beating a dead horse if that is the only platform we are running on.
The border, inflation, lawlessness, dual justice system, homelessness, fentanyl problems are resonating more with the voters than abortion. But the dems have nothing else to draw in the reps. Don’t play their game. Make America strong again, independent on oil. We know e cars don’t work. Too expensive to acquire, maintain for the distance it can drive in a charge. Not enough loading stations. The amount of electricity available is not there. Bidenomics does not work. A poor man cannot lift up the whole nation the same as all the billionaires pay enough taxes can do that. Equal taxes according to income. Do away with deductions. Straight tax according to income. I like to see the reps take that on.
Inflation has to be dealt with. NOW. The government has to live within its budget. Stop spending money in foreign countries to the detriment of American citizens. Border has to be closed. NOW. All migrants that have come in illegally will have to be deported. Unless we want to be known as a nation of criminals. Or a penal colony like Australië became. Only the main stream American does not think that far they want to be kind and nice, only the rest of the world wants to destroy us. No the 2023 election will not be an omen for 2024 it is a warning, the American voter believes the dems and hates the reps. Millions of people support Hamas. Thus hatred and killing is what the majority wants. How do we put Satan back in the bottle.
We are awaiting the rapture.

michaelR
michaelR
8 months ago

It’s a fact looking at election losses on the republican side, you can plainly see the money difference between the two parties. The crats massively out spend the republicans. The most important measures the left deem as must win, the more money they throw into it. Not so with the right.
The abortion issue is easy to solve. You’re not going to do it by belittling and alienating female voters. What you do is this,….you tell them abortion is end result of an intimate encounter and NO birth control being used. Then you tell them that one of your priorities will be to make birth control more easily available. There by avoiding abortion as birth control. There’s no argument against that.

Adonis
Adonis
8 months ago

All roads lead to incompetent RNC. Didn’t President Trump endorse the loser Ronna McRomney for the job over Harmeett Dhillon? Just like he endorsed her RINO uncle Mitt Romney and Mitch McConnell. His personnel choices stink to high heaven.

RBart
RBart
8 months ago

In the meantime, Republicans divide themselves into obscurity.

DenvilleSr
DenvilleSr
8 months ago

As much as I detest saying it, the majority of Americans support abortion rights. The political arena is no longer a place to contest that fact. We have some states trying to criminalize going across state lines for an abortion. There I think the impact is a negative on on Republican political aspirations, while the legal question has more to do with trying to prevent people from crossing state lines to do something that is legal across the line. A total loser. The truth of the matter is we are doing a crappy job of making cogent arguments for better regulation of voting. New York City had to be sued to remove inactive voters from the voter rolls. A small upstate New York State county removed more voters during several years than Manhattan did in the same time. There are videos of a woman stuffing an early voter box in CT that resulted in a primary race being rescheduled. Most people want fair elections. Why aren’t Republicans talking about the obvious and reported problems and ways to fix it? Who thinks China is a worthy economic partner? Why aren’t Republicans talking about the negative impacts of China and ways to fix it? My point? Talk about things most people agree on that need fixing.

Jbuerk
Jbuerk
7 months ago

How is it that pro-choice voters don’t understand or are not willing to understand that an abortion is killing? It is the act of taking the life of a human being. At the time of conception, this life is a miraculous gift from God, a life that needs to be nurtured until maturity.

Robert Chase
Robert Chase
8 months ago

In the first case the GOP needs to moderate the attack on abortion. Recognizing that a clear majority of women favor abortion the GOP should focus on limits rather than no abortion. Otherwise they are not in position to have any policy impact!
In the second case the GOP is totally at fault for failure to recruit. It is easy to wonder what the party is doing. So many Republican voters feel disconnected from the GOP and ignore the calls for donation, etc. That stems from a failure to perform! National leadership is failing.

Jeff
Jeff
8 months ago

Losing the VA House of Reps and failing to get control of the Senate can hardly be reported as ‘narrowly’ failed. As a conservative I expect better from AMAC in telling it straight up, no chaser! Doing anything less only diminshes credibility which should only be a trait of leftist journalism.
In today’s political environment EVERY contest has consequences. The hype leading up to elections in which Conservatism fails to ‘live up to expectations’ is doublespeak for losing! 2022 was supposed to be a “Red Tsunami” but resulted in a mere trickle. Could the hype be why many did not get out to vote, believe the victory was in the bag?
Absolutely the results in Ohio confirm the GOP abortion message is terrible. After SCOTUS decided properly that abortion should be a State’s issue, the GOP began seeking restrictions at the federal level. Could there be anything more moronic. Even if you are 100% pro life at conception, such tactics lose elections and cost us greatly on other issues. When asked about the abortion issue, federal GOP candidates should simply state it is a “State’s Issue”, let the people decide at local levels. I am pro life and wish there were restictions on abortions, heartbeat with exceptions for health of the mother as well ASAP for any rape pregnancy the mother chooses; but politically abortion is a losing issue.
The GOP also must fix the broken voting system. That the RNC has failed here, IMO, is due to the failed leadership within. McDaniel needs to be replaced.
Should we fail to catch the ‘omens’ of 2020/2022/2023 we will LOSE the Republic.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
8 months ago

I don’t count on anything in 2024 except to never underestimate the stupid voter. Look at that Ohio abortion amendment: it (by its wording) legalizes abortion right up to the moment of birth if you find a physician who signs off on “moms depression” unless the abortion is done. I know one: Kermit Gosnell. His “mistake” was actually allowing the baby to be born before taking a scalpel to the back of their necks! Do it in the womb? LEGAL. Legal murder that is.

gin
gin
8 months ago

Don’t forget, God raises up kings and deposes kings Daniel 2:21.. And He’s doing it according to the amount of people who love and obey Him. I’m sure this applies to other offices as well. There are so many predicted signs appearing of the tribulation and His judgement, that everyone had better get their house in order for eternity by accepting Christ Jesus as Savior.

Randall L. Beatty
Randall L. Beatty
8 months ago

If people in this country do not see corruption in the White House they never will. If so many are happy with what is happening in this country they will see, when all the give a ways end and this country is in so much debt will never get out of. When Joe talks another lie comes out when your paychecks get smaller because of more taxes good luck everyone that voted for him and that VP, to much cover ups and the media helps with all the Biden lies.

Garyk
Garyk
8 months ago

Remember the marxist democrat party brings in millions of dollars from out of state to steal elections and buy whacko anti American positions.
Like killing babies promoting drug cultures and supporting whacko causes like gender confusing ridiculousness!
Throw these losers out

Moses
Moses
8 months ago

Republicans making abortion an issue that many women give up their rights to have one is reason enough for republicans to not be doing well. We well may continue down the road to communism over this abortion issue. At a time republicans should have let the abortion issue lay, it cost them precious seats in the House and Senate in 2022. No doubt Joe Biden and the democrats are idiots with their green energy obsession, but a woman that thinks she has the right to have an abortion, especially since she has had that right since about 1976, will vote democrat just to try to keep, or get back that right. Don’t get me wrong, I am not pro abortion, I am pro American, Constitution to be adhered to. Then there is the lack luster Republican Party that inspires no one.

David Millikan
David Millikan
8 months ago

All Blue States are registering all welfare and food stamp recipients as Voters regardless including ALL from Illegal Alien Terrorist Invasion so they will all vote Democrat illegally.
Another way to rig and cheat to steal the 2024 Elections.
NO BS.
Time for lawsuits.

Jake
Jake
8 months ago

Yes, the Republicans have to get into the nursing homes, mental institutions and homes where people who have mental issues that hinder their ability to even know that there is an election let alone know who is running for office. They can harvest those votes for the Republicans like the dems have been doing for years!

FREDERIC SOLIMAN
FREDERIC SOLIMAN
8 months ago

IT IS BECOMING OBVIOUS WE THE PEOPLE WHO HOLD DEAR THE VALUES INCALCATED TO US BY THE ALMIGHTY AND THE CONSTITUTION ARE STARTING TO DOUBT THE ELECTED OFFICIALS WE HAVE VOTED IN OFFICE….BOTH DEMOCRAPS AND REPUBLITARDS ALIKE (KUDOS TO A FEW DEDICATED REPUBLICANS)!!! THE GOP HAS BECOME AS INCOMPETENT AND DEVOID OF THE SUFFERINGS WHO ELECTED THEM BUT TRULY ARE ONLY INTERESTED IN THEIR SELF VESTED INTEREST….HOW CAN YOU BELIEVE THE LIFE-STYLE THEY LIVE WITH THEIR SALARIES?????????

marty
marty
8 months ago

Good plan Demoncrats, (1) ABORT our innocent babies, (2) Open our borders to who knows what ? terrorists, drug runners,Cartels, MS13, assorted scum of the Third World to replace all the babies you killed in the womb ! (3) Do what “BLUE” cities do, let them grow into their teens,, if they don’t work-out, let them kill each other in those “Gun Free Zones”. How’s that working for you ?? Thank You DNC and Dementia Joe O’Biden #O’Bama’s 3rd term.

George A Polivka
George A Polivka
8 months ago

I am going to go ahead and do it and I can send it over tomorrow morning. This makes a lot of sense and the candidate that is of the opinion that politicians don’t control the individual rights of the ontitution.
The woman and her doctor should have that right she is the winner. Keep the government out of our personal rights.That was NEVER The point of the constitution, in fact they protect against it.

Peter Young
Peter Young
8 months ago

He’s also using our tax dollars to increase his base.
foxnews.com/opinion/what-republicans-dont-understand-about-biden-really-wins-elections

Harry
Harry
7 months ago

An organization is only as good as it’s leader! Our leader has lead us to three failed elections, yet is voted back in, rather than have new blood! Me and mine are done!!

Harry
Harry
7 months ago

Maybe the Republicans should REQUIRE abortions for All Democrats? That would eventually end most problems in this country we now experience. Too many reasons to list!

Lauramerrone
Lauramerrone
7 months ago

It’s a sad day for the country when killing babies in the womb helps Democrats win elections. Someday, when there are few people left and no children in sight, we’ll wonder where we went wrong…

johnh
johnh
8 months ago

In a nutshell, Democrats have backed Republicans into a corner ever since Dobbs decision & Republicans cannot unite enough to realize what the majority of American voters want & think on this issue. One way to find answer is to ask One Thousand women what they think, but maybe that would mean having to talk to a few RINOs. My opinion, without RINO members, Republican party is in big trouble.

johnh
johnh
8 months ago

The Republicans did not realize the importance of Roe V Wade decision in the 2022 election & fumbled the ball again in 2023 elections. It will be interesting to see what side Trump comes up with if he ever goes to a debate and asked questions on his stance now versus when he ran in 2020.

Old Silk
Old Silk
8 months ago

Pro choice is an excuse used when certain voting hanky panky is at work. Pro life position wins every time, and always has.

Secret Service agents rush Donald Trump off the stage.(AP: Evan Vucci)
President Joe Biden greets President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping, Wednesday, November 15, 2023, at the Filoli Estate in Woodside, California.(Official White House Photo by Carlos Fyfe)
President Joe Biden speaks on the phone with Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick to discuss his approval of a FEMA disaster declaration in response to the impacts of Hurricane Beryl, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in the Oval Office of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

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