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GOP Must Go on Offense to Win NY’s Swing Districts — and Expand House Control

Posted on Sunday, September 8, 2024
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by Rebecca Weber
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21 Comments
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The midterm elections of 2022 showed that the Republican House majority runs through New York, as the GOP flipped four previously Democratic congressional districts. More than a third of the Republicans’ nine-seat majority came from Empire State voters.

In November, this undeniably blue state will once again hold the key to Republicans’ House hopes — but only if the party’s candidates train their focus on the disastrous consequences of liberal policies, from Long Island to Albany and Buffalo.

And Republicans have plenty of examples to point to, particularly in the all-important swing districts.

On Long Island, the GOP faces three crucial contests in the 1st, 3rd and 4th congressional districts. Republicans notably flipped the latter two by just over 31,000 combined votes in 2022.

New Yorkers in Nassau and Suffolk counties have been hit hard by the Harris-Biden administration’s border invasion, as the flood of illegal immigrants into nearby “sanctuary” New York City has caused crime and chaos to spill over into their communities.

Last year, the town of Riverhead was forced to declare a state of emergency as Mayor Adams announced plans to ship migrants there.

In February, a North African migrant who crossed the border last November beat a homeowner in Hempstead. In 2023, police arrested eight men from South America following a string of break-ins at homes and businesses in Nassau County.

And it’s not just Long Island, but in the other swing districts, too.

In Syracuse, an illegal immigrant from Ecuador was charged with suffocating a 21-year-old woman and burying her body in a public park in June. That same month, another migrant was arrested for the rape of a 15-year-old girl in Albany.

Polling data indicates that voters throughout New York have had enough.

Per a Siena College survey this summer, 83% of registered voters in New York — including 77% of Democrats — believe the influx of migrants is a “serious” issue for the state.

Almost half of respondents, 49%, said crime has gotten worse over the past year, while 52% said New York is on the “wrong track.”

Republicans also face three crucial House contests in the 17th, 18th and 19th districts centered around the Hudson Valley. The GOP flipped the 17th and 19th by 2,314 and 6,202 votes, respectively, in 2022 and came within 2,700 votes of flipping the 18th, making all three districts top targets for both parties again this year.

Mayor Adams has shipped migrants to these upstate regions, overwhelming local resources and angering locals who have been hit especially hard by inflation and the skyrocketing cost of living under the Harris-Biden administration.

The price of housing in the Hudson Valley ballooned by 56% from 2019 to 2022, and the administration’s war on American energy combined with liberal New York policies has socked residents with ever-rising costs. Yet another rate hike of 8% for electricity and 9% for natural gas just went into effect for the region on August 1.

The cost of living in New York overall is 26% higher than the national average, while housing is 75% higher.

The accessibility of the American dream is under threat throughout the country, but in few places is it as imperiled as it is in New York.

Empire State Republicans have the right political environment to once again outperform expectations in November.

But conservatives can’t rely on voter dissatisfaction with the current state of the country — that frustration must be channeled into votes at the ballot box. 

For example, my organization, the Association of Mature American Citizens, is holding a “Bootcamp for Boomers” on Long Island on Sept. 14 — right in the heart of one of the most important battlegrounds in the country. This one-day event will give concerned citizens skills and resources to mobilize like-minded voters in their communities.

As an organization that supports seniors, AMAC always looks for bipartisan solutions to issues that affect our members, from reducing health care costs to preserving Social Security.

But extreme Democratic policies are threatening the safety and financial stability of American seniors.

Since 2022, Democrats and media pundits have sought to write off the Republicans’ surprising midterm performance in New York as a fluke.

But if dissatisfied voters once again turn out in overwhelming numbers, we can prove that common-sense conservatism is making a lasting comeback in the Empire State.

Rebecca Weber is the CEO of the Association of Mature American Citizens and a lifelong resident of Long Island.

Reprinted with permission from the New York Post.

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PaulE
PaulE
2 months ago

Since 2022, The Democrat controlled state legislature, along with the Democrat Governor, with the full approval of the State Supreme Court (ALL Democrats), have enacted legislation that has effectively changed the election maps of the voting districts mention in this article back to being gerrymandered to favoring Democrats once again. This was done in 2023. It even received a fair amount of news coverage at the local level, so AMAC should have picked up that this was going on. So, this article presupposes conditions and opportunities for GOP pick-ups in a solidly Democrat controlled state that no longer exist.

As a result of this change, the 4 House seats that the GOP picked-up in 2022 are now at risk of being flipped back to Democrats in the upcoming election. Other Democrat run states, where there were surprise pick-ups of GOP seats in 2022, have enacted similar changes to what New York state did. The expressed purpose of these changes was to close any potential threats to Democrat control going forward and to flip those House seats won by the GOP in 2022 back to Democrat control. Thus, putting the Democrats back in control of the House of Representatives after the 2024 elections, if the Democrats manage the outcomes of the election at the states level.

Obviously, we would all like the GOP to retain control of the House and have the GOP re-take control of the Senate after this next election. However, the Democrats have not been standing still and doing nothing since 2022. They do whatever it takes to tilt the board in their favor and don’t rely on voters turning out in overwhelming numbers to achieve victory.

Theresa Coughlin
Theresa Coughlin
2 months ago

I live in the first congressional district of NY, where my congressman is Nick LaLota. Democrats will make it even harder than it has been (fi not impossible) for republicans to win in 2024 by manipulating the redistricting process to benefit them.

LawrenceL
LawrenceL
2 months ago

Please do not forget NY-22, Brandon Williams’ district. We must re-elect him. As of this moment, that district is said to be leaning Democrat, and the re-jiggering of the lines to include more typically blue areas will make it more difficult than his remarkable first-term victory of 2022.

Rob citizenship--
Rob citizenship--
2 months ago

Important article Rebecca, and what you wrote in the last sentence about ” common sense conservatism” — those three words are like really nice music , uplifting, inspiring ,just plain nice to think about .And the possibility of common sense conservatism making a lasting comeback in the state of New York , well, that is even better. This encouraging information presents a needed balance to the tragic examples of crime committed by the illegal alien element earlier in the article. So, in the spirit of being positive, and optimistic and thinking about the possibility that the Statue of Liberty symbolism will be preserved by the honorable endeavors of honorable people it sure enough is time to do things like you said about mobilizing concerned citizens interested in the betterment of this Nation. In any emergency situation it is always good to think intelligently, have courage and develop resourcefulness . Praise for all of the good things being done by the honorable people with AMAC .

Joe
Joe
2 months ago

Robert Z, you’re correct about liberals moving to conservative and/or tax-free states, and tragically they bring their liberal ideology with them. However, Colorado is as blue as they come. What rural conservative counties that existed have been redistricted to merge with urban liberal voting districts. “Cali-rado” also has a state income tax, and now working residents get a tax taken from their paychecks to fund a state “paid leave program” so same-sex couples can get paid to adopt and indoctrinate innocent children. Soon the state will be renamed to “Commie-rado.”

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
2 months ago

I think its because so many wealthier Democrats want to keep their money and move to tax-free states leaving more Republican majorities. Unfortunately, these dissatisfied Dems move to Nevada, Arizona, Texas or Colorado… and vote the same Ka-Ka they ran from!

Robert
Robert
2 months ago

“The Empire State Strikes Back!” May the force be with us and the farce where it belongs with the Democrats!

David Millikan
David Millikan
2 months ago

ABC giving Communist harris 100 percent positive coverage before Debate and 93 percent negative coverage on President Trump. That should speak volumes to everyone.

Dr. CT Rezner
Dr. CT Rezner
2 months ago

This is the year to invest in winning in NY. The people are embarrassed by their Court’s unconstitutional attacks on Trump, They are tired of Democrat Policy restricting their freedom, AG and DA allowing Crime on the street to increase, and both the Governor and Mayor tied to criminal investigations.They see Trump with good policy and Harris with more destruction of Culture, economy, and country.

David Millikan
David Millikan
2 months ago

Communist harris plan to give Tens of Millions of their Illegal Alien Terrorist Invasion AMNESTY over Americans safety and security shows they choose Terrorist and Criminals first over the United States and Americans FIRST to stay in power and control. Another reason why I am voting for President Trump who puts the Safety and Security of the United States and Americans FIRST.

Cher
Cher
2 months ago

How we PRAY this happens!!! Thanks for the info. I never thought to pray for NY!!!

David Millikan
David Millikan
2 months ago

Under biden/harris, Federal Reserve System Docket No. OP-1670 reveals Plan to Freeze our Bank Accounts, Every Single Check, Withdrawals, Deposits, and Transactions. NO BS.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 months ago

Go on Offense Nationwide

John
John
2 months ago

You go, Rebecca!

Bill
Bill
2 months ago

Absolutely worse downstate than it is up here but we are not immune to it (Rochester)

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